The Parliamentary Class of 2010

Following my article on the Next Generation of Parliamentary candidates I have been contacted by a representative of Madano Partnership pointing to their own publication.

The report profiles 242 of the Prospective Parliamentary Candidates (PPCs) most likely to be elected at the next UK General Election.

‘The Class of 2010’ is the most detailed report yet produced on candidates. It looks at what will be the biggest shakeup of the UK Parliament since Labour’s landslide victory in 1997. With extensive constituency boundary changes, 82 MPs retiring (a figure constantly rising) and a sustained Conservative Party lead in national opinion polls, there will undoubtedly be a high turnover of MPs at the next election.

In the report, Madano’s statistical analysis compares the likely next generation of MPs with the intake of newly elected MPs in 1997. In summary it suggests that: 

• Gender: The next election will see proportionately fewer female candidates fighting winnable seats than there were at the 1997 General Election.
• Age: There will be little change in the age profile of new MPs, with those in their 40s still forming the largest group.
• Ethnicity: There will be a higher number of candidates from ethnic minority backgrounds, but Parliament will still not proportionately reflect the UK population.
• Education: There will be a marked increase in the proportion of new MPs who were privately educated, compared with the last intake in 1997.
• Career Background: The next House of Commons will have a greater private sector focus (as opposed to public sector). More MPs will have backgrounds in the media, business, financial services, law, communications and management consultancy; in contrast there will be dramatically fewer teachers, academics and trade unionists.

Although the report does not cover the latest wave of future resignations from Parliament, the number of likely winnable candidates still to be selected still only amounts to around 10% of the overall number. It is apparent that these selections will take many months to be confirmed. It is not expected that these future additions will radically change the overall characteristics of this new generation.

The findings of the report are based upon 242 candidates consisting of:

• the top 140 Conservative target seats (those candidates that would be elected were the Conservatives to achieve a uniform national swing of 7% which would give a small nominal Conservative majority of up to 15 seats)
• the top 20 Labour target seats
• the top 20 Liberal Democrat target seats
• a handful of target seats for the other smaller parties
• candidates that have been selected to stand in seats where the sitting MP is standing down (27 still to be selected) and
• new seats/seats that have notionally changed hands as a result of the Parliamentary boundary changes (the boundary changes at the next General Election mean that only 55 constituencies in England and Wales are wholly unchanged).

More detailed analysis shows:

Gender

• The report suggests that far from improving, the gender imbalance in Parliament will get worse in 2010. Although 34% (82) of the total 242 candidates are female, up from 28% (71) of the 256 newly elected MPs at the 1997 General Election who were female, when only considering the Conservatives candidates, the figure drops to 27% (44 out of 165), compared with 35% or 64 of the new Labour MPs in 1997 who were women. Exactly 50% of both the Labour (23 out of 46) and Liberal Democrat (13 out of 26) candidates featured in the report are female, but relatively few of these are expected to be elected at the next General Election.

Age

• There is virtually no change in the age profile of likely successful candidates since 1997. Those in their 40s still form the largest grouping (45% of those known in 2010 compared to 46% in 1997), followed by the 30-somethings (29% of known in 2010, the same as in 1997). Overall, there are eight candidates featured in ‘The Class of 2010’ report who are currently still in their 20s.

Ethnic Diversity

• The overall number of BME (Black and Minority Ethnic) candidates likely to be successful has increased dramatically from 2% in 1997 to 7.4% in 2010. There are nine black or minority ethnic Conservative candidates featured in ‘The Class of 2010’ equating to 5% (9) of its likely successful candidates (165). Although highly unlikely to all be elected, of the Labour and Lib Dem candidates featured, BME candidates comprise 17% (8 out of 46) of the Labour candidates. None of the 26 Lib Dem candidates featured in this report can be considered as having a BME background.
• With the proportion of new MPs with a BME background increasing, this will consequently improve the overall proportion of MPs who consider themselves to be from a BME background in the House of Commons. However, even with this improvement at the next General Election, the Commons will still have some way to go in order to proportionally reflect the UK population. The most recent census data (which is now clearly quite old) from the 2001 census puts the proportion of British citizens not from the ethnic group described as ‘white’ at 7.9% (Office of National Statistics).

Education

• Whilst more detailed research will be required, there is a clear trend with a marked increase in the number of likely successful candidates who were privately or independently educated – up by as much as three times the 1997 figure.
• The figures suggest that roughly a third (29%) of winnable candidates in 2010 will have attended private or independent schools. When considering only those candidates where we have identified their school, the figure for private or independently educated is even higher at 38%; this compares to 13% in 1997.

Career background

• Overall, it appears that there will be a general shift towards MPs who have an employment background predominantly rooted in the private sector rather than the public sector. Those candidates with a background in consultancy (up from 4% to 16%), business, finance, law, and agriculture (as well as the third sector – Charities and NGOs) are all up in 2010 in comparison with the 1997 intake. Those with a teaching/education, trade union and health/medicine background are all down from 12 years ago.
• These changes appear to be stark when broken down by party. 22% (40) of the Labour intake of 1997 were teachers or lecturers, but only about 4% (7) of the likely new Conservative MPs have a career background in education. Similarly, 8% (15) of new Labour MPs in 1997 worked for the NHS/medicine, but only 1% of the likely new Conservative intake.

Eight former MPs

• There are four former Labour MPs (Geraint Davies – formerly Croydon Central, Andy King – formerly Rugby & Kenilworth, Phil Sawford – formerly Kettering and best known, Stephen Twigg – formerly Enfield Southgate), two Conservatives (Peter Duncan – Galloway & Upper Nithsdale and Jonathan Evans – Brecon & Radnor), one Liberal Democrat (Sue Doughty – Guildford) and one SNP (Annabelle Ewing – Perth).

Three former MEPs

• There are also three Conservative MEPs who are standing down from the European Parliament at the forthcoming EU elections and seeking a transfer to Westminster – Jonathan Evans (previously mentioned as a former MP as well), Chris Heaton-Harris and Neil Parish.

The full report is available for purchase at £199 for commercial entities and £149 for non-commercial/charities.

Lib Dem PPC Blasts Her Own Party’s “Bullsh*t”

Following my earlier article about Lib Dem PPCs jumping ship this choice story has been sent to me. Yet another PPC is unhappy with her own national leadership and their tactics. Cllr Sally Morgan the Lib Dem PPC for Central Devon lost her Devon County Council seat (althougfh she remains a Cllr on Teignbridge DC) on 4^th June to a Conservative landslide in the south west of England. Unfortunately crass “apparatchiks” in Lib Dem national HQ sent her and other members emails trying to spin the line that the elections were a Lib Dem triumph and asking for more money.

Sally’s email has been leaked to the media and reads as follows:

Dear Cowley St and Campaigns Dept.

Please do not employ apparatchiks to telephone me at home to tell me how well the party did in the local elections only days after I and many of my colleagues lost our seats.

I do not appreciate being told how the public decided to teach Gordon brown a lesson nor that a General Election is around the corner and we have never been in a better position.

I no longer subscribe to that particular variety of bull****.

I was particularly taken aback to be asked if I would make a substantial donation and increase my standing order. Is that not the equivalent of frisking a mugging victim for any more pickings?

The party has benefited from several thousand pounds of my money as well as my blood, sweat and tears and yet the Party chooses to spend such money on employing ‘organisers’ whose sole purpose it seems is to forward centrally-generated emails that I have already received.

I would happily save the Party thousands of pounds a year by offering the services of my 11-year-old daughter who would be more than capable of performing such tasks for the price of a tenner and a few bags of Haribo cola bottles.

They obviously do little else as I have not seen sight nor sound of such organisers for many, many months despite being a Parliamentary Candidate.

Perhaps the Party thinks PPCs who are councillors and Mothers have not time for such fripperies. The lack of support would lead me to believe so.

For that reason I’ve cancelled my, already generous, standing order and when my membership expires in October the Party can sing for it.

Yours, with b***** all left to lose.

Sally

It looks like the party has now leant on her as she is now back-tracking slightly from the threat in the email but clearly all is not well with yet another Lib Dem PPC.

Cutting the Number of Reading Councillors

Last night the Corporate Community and External Affairs (CCEA) Scrutiny Panel discussed a paper that had been presented by Independent Councillor Tony Jones. Essentially he was suggesting that a review be conducted of the number of Councillors and the frequency of elections. At present Reading has 46 Councillors and holds elections by thirds every year, with a “fallow year” every fourth year.

The paper highlighted that having 16 fewer Councillors would generate an annual saving of £131,520 on the basic allowance and that was not counting any additional allowances claimed or a reduction in staffing support that may follow. Local elections cost about £150,000 to run, with national elections costs being reclaimable from central Government. Thus reducing the frequency of elections could add significant additional savings.  Against this had to be weighed the cost of preparing for a boundary review, which would be necessary due to the single member Mapledurham ward, which would stop the review just cutting Councillors from 3 to 2 in each ward.

Cllr Tony Jones presented the paper to the panel and argued strongly that whilst many Councillors of all parties worked hard, there were some that did not. He argued that an internal review would inform the submission to the Electoral Commission that would have to be made in due course and generate an early debate involving local residents.

Conservative Group Leader Andrew Cumpsty spoke strongly in favour of a review and his personal support for all-out elections every four years. Lib Dem Deputy Leader Daisy Benson spoke against, arguing that none of her constituents were calling for this. Several Labour Councillors voiced their opposition to the proposal and any cut in their numbers. They also rejected the assertion that some Councillors were not pulling their weight. I pointed out that with politicians generally being held in low esteem a cut in our number and the consequent cost savings would probably be very popular and that many other authorities had all-out elections and a larger number of constituents per elected Councillor.

The eventual vote saw Conservatives siding with Cllr Tony Jones in calling for a review, while Labour voted against and the Lib Dems (as usual) abstained. A formal paper will now be presented to the full Council proposing that a review takes place.

Another Lib Dem PPC Quits

The Lib Dems are earning themselves a reputation for the flakiness of their Parliamentary candidates, as yet another PPC has quit the role. Cllr Stuart Currie who is deputy Leader of East Lothian Council as well as candidate for the Lib Dem target seat of Aberdeen South has resigned and is said to be considering quitting the party.

Only a few weeks ago Norsheen Bhatti the Lib Dem PPC for Chelsea and Fulham, quit the party with an attack on Nick Clegg’s leadership and then joined the Conservatives. Oddly, Paul Moss the Lib Dem PPC for Denton and Reddish quit to join Labour. That followed the resignations of James Keeley as PPC for Skipton and Ripon and Stephen Tweedie as PPC for Carlisle.

Inevitably one or two PPCs of any party will not stay the course but this close to a likely General Election it is surprising that so many selected candidates are quitting the Lib Dems. It suggests that there is a feeling of hopelessness at the prospects they face and a sense of drift under Nick Cleggs’ leadership.

Meanwhile the Conservatives have welcomed another defector TO the party, with the news that Cllr Alan Dobbie has become the first Conservative Councillor on Haringey Council, after leaving the Labour Party. It is significant that he chose to join the Conservatives after a lifetime as a Labour member rather than the Lib Dems who are the main opposition on Haringey.

Norwich North – The Full Line Up

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The nominations for the Norwich North by-election closed today and there is a pretty full line up to chose from. The full list of candidates is:

            Conservative – Chloe Smith

            Labour – Chris Ostrowski

            Lib Dem – April Pond

            Green – Cllr Robert Read

            UKIP – Glenn Tingle

            BNP – Rev Robert West

            Monster Raving Loony – Laud Howling

            Libertarian Party – Thomas Burridge

            Independent – Craig Murray  

            Independent – Anne Fryatt

            Independent – Peter Baggs

            Independent – Bill Holden

Contrary to some suggestions Dr Ian Gibson, the out-going MP, has not put his name forward to contest the by-election as an independent.

New Aircraft Carriers Begun as Defence Review is Announced

The construction of the Royal Navy’s new aircraft carriers pressed forward today as Her Royal Highness the Princess Royal performed the steel cutting for the first of the Queen Elizabeth aircraft carriers at BVT Surface Fleet’s shipyard in Govan, Glasgow.

Today’s ceremony marked the start of the manufacture of the Royal Navy’s largest ever warships. Together with the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) aircraft and the brand new Type 45 destroyers, they will form the cornerstone of Britain’s future ability to jointly project air power worldwide from land or sea at a time and place of UK’s choosing.

Guided by Scott Ballingal, a 21 year old BVT apprentice from Erskine who will be working on the Carriers, Rear Admiral the Princess Royal pushed the button to start the computer guided laser that cut the first piece of steel for the hull of these immense new ships.

Scott is one of 70 new apprentices who have been taken on by BVT to support work on the carrier. The programme has reinvigorated apprenticeship schemes at the prime shipyards and provides a solid workload for the coming years.

Three other major sections (called lower blocks) of the ship will be assembled at yards at Portsmouth and Rosyth. Other fabrication work will be done at the Appledore shipyards in Devon. Each block will be transported to Rosyth dockyard where they will be joined together to form the hull of the ship.

While construction is just beginning, the project has moved on apace since the manufacture contract was signed in July last year, with £700M worth of sub-contracts placed for the equipment and furnishings that will kit out the ships from the weapons systems to the galleys and cabins. UK industry has also benefited from the development phase of the Joint Strike Fighter aircraft and is well placed to win further work as this programme progresses well into the 21st century.

The news about the carriers came on the same day that Secretary of State for Defence, Bob Ainsworth set out the process towards undertaking a Strategic Defence Review in the next Parliament. The recently updated National Security Strategy (NSS) will provide the framework for the review which will be designed to ensure that the UK’s Armed Forces are fully prepared for future threats and challenges to Britain’s security.

The process will undertake an examination of a range of issues, including:

* the strategic context for defence, including the lessons the UK has learned from recent operations and the changing character of conflict
* experiences of working in partnership with other arms of government
* the contribution defence can make to the projection of soft power – exerting influence to prevent conflicts
* technological changes in defence
* the scope for more effective processes in defence, including acquisition
* the modern day requirements on and aspirations of our Armed Forces personnel

The Government has already made clear that the Trident nuclear system will not be subject to the review and there are strong hints that the two new carriers will also be exempt. Since these are two of the biggest items of expenditure (if the Trident replacement is considered) the RAF’s huge Typhoon (Euro-fighter) order is likely to be in the firing line for cuts.

There may also be pressure for further reductions in the number of single service bases with a growing tendency towards large tri-service units. The number of military headquarters should also be open to question as well as staffing numbers at the Ministry of Defence.

New Parliamentary Candidates Profile Resource

A new booklet on Parliamentary candidates to watch has been published today by “Insight Public Affairs”. It profiles many of the candidates of all three major parties who are likely to enter Parliament at the next General Election.

I have had a look through at some of the PPCs I know and it seems like a useful summary of their background, together with a short constituency profile and their contact details.

There is an introduction by Insight MD John Lehal and articles by environmentalist Zac Goldsmith, Lorely Burt MP, Grant Shapps MP and others.

You can read a copy here.

An Evening with Iain Dale

Reading Conservatives are delighted to have secured top blogger Iain Dale for a fundraising dinner on 16 July at Sonning Golf Club.  Iain is one of Britain’s leading political commentators, appearing regularly on TV and radio. Iain is best known for his political blog  “Iain Dale’s Diary”. He is a contributing editor and columnist for GQ Magazine, writes for the Daily Telegraph and a fortnightly diary for the Eastern Daily Press. He is the publisher of the monthly magazine, Total Politics and the author or editor of nearly thirty books.

Iain stood as a Conservative candidate at the last election and was Chief of Staff to Rt Hon David Davis MP in the recent Conservative Party leadership election. He is a former political lobbyist, financial journalist and publisher and was the founder of Politico’s Bookstore. He is Director of the Conservative History Group and co-director of the Campaign for Fixed Term Parliaments. Iain is also a vocal proponent of an English Parliament.

This will be a splendid evening as Iain is an accomplished public speaker, and is much in demand for his humorous after dinner speeches.

Tickets and more information are available from office@readingeastconservatives.com or call 0118 967 5797.

Madonna – Sticky and Sweet 2009

Yesterday I went into London to see Madonna at the O2 Arena. We drove to the edge of London, parked and then got the tube in the rest of the way. Unfortunately the Jubilee Line was shut and so we had to take the Docklands Light Railway to East India, where we caught a river ferry to get across to the dome. Therefore the journey was a mix of car, train, boat and on foot.

It was the first time I have been inside the Dome, having seen it many times from the outside. If you have not been there it is an amazingly huge structure. Inside there is a large reception area with a big variety of restaurants around the outer edge of the dome. We made our way past the sellers of Madonna souvenir programmes (£20 each) and headed to the Brazilian restaurant “Rodizio Rico”. I have never been to a Brazilian restaurant before. We helped ourselves to the buffet and then a never-ending stream of young waiters came around with various cooked meats on skewers and proceeded to carve off pieces onto our plates. The meat included everything from chicken wings and chicken hearts, to roast beef and roast ham. It was very, very tasty!

Feeling rather stuffed we made our way to our entrance to the arena which is in the centre of the dome. We had paid almost £100 but were in the seats almost furthest from the stage, right up “in the gods”. Those closest to the stage had paid around £500 for the privilege. We arrived at about 7:30pm and had to wait until around 9:20pm before the lights faded and Madonna appeared. Apparently she doesn’t like air-conditioning, as it affects her voice, and so the arena was a sweatbox. I am just glad that I paid almost £5 for a large Fanta orange drink with ice.

The show began with an amazing graphic display and the emergence of Madonna on a throne from the central panel at the back of the stage. She began with “Candy Shop” and went through a wide repertoire which included remixed versions of classics like “Holiday”, “Vogue”, “Die Another Day” and “Human Nature”. She also performed a tribute to Michael Jackson of “Billy Jean” and “Wanna be Starting Something”, with a Jackson look-a-like dancer on stage. This was well received by the packed arena. She performed a set of Latino rhythm songs during which Madonna played on an electric guitar. The final part of the concert was made up with a selection of more contemporary club tracks with a fantastic laser display.

The whole concert was backed up with some amazing effects and graphics on the big screens behind the stage. However, there was also a “video cylinder” which could be moved around and was used extremely effectively to portray waterfalls and other effects. There was also a car and a boxing ring on stage at various points. There is no doubt that Madonna has mastered the art of theatricality, with her show being as much about the theatre of it as the music.

The 2008/09 Sticky and Sweet Tour has already grossed over $270m with almost every date selling out within minutes of the tickets going on sale. Looking at the price of the programmes and other merchandise (T-shirts were £75 each) I would imagine that it will easily exceed $500m in total.

All in all it was a fantastic experience but I would hope that for future concerts I could get better tickets and be a little closer to the action. I hope that the YouTube clips from her tour give you some impression of what an incredible spectacle the whole experience is.

Conservative Gay and Proud

Today the Gay Pride march and party takes place in London. Tens of thousands of gay people and their families and supporters will join in the festivities. However, the run up to the event has been over-shadowed by some rather unfortunate remarks by Labour Ministers Chris Bryant and Ben Bradshaw, both of whom have sought to portray the Conservative Party as “homophobic”.

This is especially incredible now that David Cameron’s Shadow Cabinet contains two “out” gay Shadow Ministers and Cameron himself has recently apologised for the totemic Section 28, introduced in the 1980’s. The gay community has been turning in increasing numbers to the Conservatives under Cameron and Bryant and Bradshaw’s comments seem like a desperate attempt to shore up Labour’s dwindling support in another of what it considered to be its client groups.

The fact is that gay people do not see themselves as part of a homogenous community. They pay taxes, use public services and form their opinions in the same way as everyone else, based on their experiences. No one party “owns” the “gay vote” and that is right and proper. As being gay is increasingly accepted with a shrug of the shoulders the resistance to equality of treatment is confined to a small minority in political parties of all colours. Labour has its homophobes just as the other parties do but it would be silly to blow their importance out of proportion.

Various Governments of both major parties have moved the agenda towards equality of treatment – the Conservatives reduced the age of consent from 21 to 18, lifted the ban on gays in the Civil Service and decriminalised gay sexual activity in Northern Ireland and Scotland; Labour took that further with a reduction to 16, lifting the ban on gays in the armed forces and introducing civil partnerships.

The Conservative Party has changed hugely since the 1980’s and I am looking forward to a huge “Gay pride” event at this year’s party conference in Manchester. Gay people can vote Conservative with confidence just as many of their colleagues in the rest of the population clearly intend to do.  The fact is that at the next General Election “gay rights” is no longer really a live issue. To suggest that somehow gay people should fear a Conservative government is no more than a smear and an attempt to stoke up unjustified fears of prejudice.

Shame on Bryant and Bradshaw!

UPDATE: Someone calling themselves “Willo” has stated that I am incorrect to refer to John Major lifting the ban on gay people serving in the Civil Service. He has stated in the comments below that no such ban ever existed. He is wrong!  In July 1991 John Major announced that neither homosexual orientation nor private homosexual activity should any longer preclude appointment even to sensitive posts in the home civil service and diplomatic service. The automatic ban in the senior civil service was also lifted at the same time. This is referred to by Lord Lester on 6 Mar 1996 in Lords Hansard column 397.