New Ipsos MORI Poll – Labour Lead Jumps to 10%

There is a new Ipsos MORI poll reported today for the Evening Standard showing the Labour lead jumping to 10% after last month’s poll had the lead at just 3%:

         Conservative              33% (down 2%)

                                                        Labour                        43% (up 5%)

                                                        Lib Dem                       9% (down 3%)

David Cameron’s negative net approval rating of -28 (satisfied minus dissatisfied) is down eight points since April, while Nick Clegg’s net rating of -39 is also down by the same amount.  Both are their worst ratings ever.  Meanwhile two-thirds (67%) are unhappy with the way the government is running the country, the worst the Coalition has seen and similar to the ratings at the end of the Labour government in 2010.  Ed Miliband’s ratings are little changed, on -16.

The majority agree that being in a coalition has taken a toll on the two parties: 58% think it has been bad for the Conservative party and 62% that it has been bad for the Liberal Democrats (while nearly half think it has been good for Labour).  Among Conservative voters, 38% think being in coalition has been good for their party – but 48% think it has been good for the Liberal Democrats.

At the same time, just under half of Britons, 44%, think the Liberal Democrats do not have enough influence in the Coalition government, while 35% think they have about the right amount.  Just 14% think they have too much influence, although this rises to 23% of Conservative voters (compared to just 7% and 3% among Labour and Liberal Democrats respectively).

On the number one issue facing the country, the economy, the Conservatives and Labour are neck and neck as the best party, with 31% favouring the Conservatives and 30% Labour.  This one-point Conservative lead compares to their ten-point lead in September last year, although Labour haven’t held a lead on this issue since 2007.

Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,006 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 12-14 May 2012.  Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

The MOD Balances Its Books

The MoD’s budget deficit has been wiped out for the first time in a generation, Defence Secretary Philip Hammond has announced. Through a series of tough but necessary decisions combined with radical reforms of the MoD’s financial processes, the £38 billion blackhole in the defence budget that the Government inherited in 2010 has now been eliminated.

It means that for the first time, the MoD’s core equipment programme is fully funded and affordable. A fully costed programme provides the Armed Forces with the stability and assurance they need for the future. The MoD can now confidently invest in new equipment, knowing its delivery is guaranteed because the programme is accurately costed and affordable.

The core committed equipment programme amounts to just under £152 bn over ten years, against a totalled planned spend of almost £160 bn. That £152 bn includes, for the first time, a centrally held contingency of over £4 bn. The programme also includes an additional £8 bn of funding over the next ten years which is unallocated. This means that the budget will have guaranteed headroom to respond to emerging equipment requirements.

The Service Chiefs have confirmed that this fully committed core equipment programme and the extra headroom will enable the MoD to deliver the capabilities required for Future Force 2020, as set out in the Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) of 2010.

Defence Secretary Philip Hammond said: “The Government is determined to get to grips with a legacy of poor project management, weak decision making and financial indiscipline within the MoD. We have made a symbolic break with the failed practices of the past and the vast black-hole that blighted Defence spending has gone.

“For the first time in decades, we have delivered a credible and sustainable budget and we can now confidently pledge to deliver to our Armed Forces almost £160 billion worth of equipment over the next decade that we know we can afford. This allows us to begin to put the uncertainty of the last few years behind us and build for the future on a solid foundation as we move forward with Defence Transformation.”

Chief of the Defence Staff, General Sir David Richards, said: “Taking tough decisions and dealing with unaffordable projects has given us clarity to plan. We are now on a firm foundation and building the Armed Forces of the future. We are now well-placed to adapt and respond to threats around the world and to deliver the capabilities we need for the nation’s defence. Going forward, the Armed Forces Committee, which I chair, will prioritise future commitments and bringing into service the equipment we are now getting.”

The announcement means the MoD can now guarantee the delivery of projects for the Army, Royal Navy and Royal Air Force including:

• 14 new Chinooks, Apache life-extension & Puma upgrade;
• a programme of new armoured fighting vehicles worth around £4.5 bn over ten years, and a £1 bn upgrade of the Warrior Armoured Fighting Vehicle;
• the building of the two Queen Elizabeth Class aircraft carriers; the remainder of the Type 45 destroyers and the new Type 26 frigates; the Astute class and Successor nuclear submarines;
• investment in new Wildcat helicopters, the Merlin upgrade programme and the assessment phase for Merlin marinisation;
• introduction into service of the Voyager Air-to-Air refueller & troop transporter, the A400M air transporter and the Air Seeker surveillance aircraft;
• an additional C17 aircraft;
• continued investment in Typhoon and JSF;
• £7 bn invested in complex weapons – the smart missiles and torpedos that give our Navy, Army and Air Force their fighting edge.

Balancing the programme means the MoD can now confirm the following projects will also be part of the core equipment programme:

• a £4 bn plus investment in Intelligence, Surveillance, Communications and Reconnaissance assets across the CIPHER, SOLOMON, CROWSNEST, DCNS, and FALCON projects;
• the outright purchase of 3 Offshore Patrol Vessels which are currently leased;
• capability enhancements to the Typhoon;
• a range of simulators, basing, and support equipment for the new helicopters and aircraft we are introducing.

The scrutiny and financial controls that have been put in place will allow the MoD to ensure projects deliver against time and cost. As they do so, it will be able to release the funds which have put in place to add any uncommitted capabilities to the Committed Core Equipment Programme. Reaching a balanced budget represents an important milestone in the transformation of Defence which builds upon the recommendations of Lord Levene’s review of the department.

In further news, the MoD is to sustain its commitment to the nuclear deterrent by continuing to invest £1 billion a year on facilities at the Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE). The AWE is central to the development and maintenance of the UK’s nuclear capability, Trident. Scientists at the Berkshire site are involved from the initial concept and design of the warheads, through manufacture and support to their decommissioning and disposal.

The MoD has now reached an agreement with AWE Management Limited (AWEML) – the joint venture contracted to manage and operate the site in 2000 – for a further priced period of work under its existing 25-year contract. This agreement, which will see the MoD invest £1 billion a year over the next five years, provides important further investment in skills and facilities at the company’s site in Aldermaston and Burghfield, Berkshire, where more than 4,500 staff are based.

Around 40 per cent of this money will be invested in essential capital projects, including production and research facilities. The remainder will be spent on operating and maintaining the AWE. Defence Equipment and Support Minister, Peter Luff, said: “The Atomic Weapons Establishment is a centre of scientific and technological excellence, with some of the most advanced research, design and production facilities in the world. This investment announced today will help maintain 4,500 jobs and a key capability, which is essential for our national security.”

The investment will enable AWE to perform its vital work in support of the UK’s nuclear deterrent until March 2018, when another priced period of work will be agreed.

Britain’s Got Talent Finals 2012

Regular readers may recall that I was blown away by two acts in the initial auditions of this year’s Britain’s Got Talent. I blogged about them here. This year has undoubtedly been the best ever for the range and quality of the talent on offer. Nu Skool and the Loveable Rogues were fantastic as were The Mend and Ryan O’Shaughnessy but I still felt that either Only Boys Aloud or Jonathan and Charlotte should win.

The winner in the end was Ashleigh and her adorable dog Pudsey and I wish them all the best. My two preferred acts came in second and third; not bad as I picked them from the very start!

“Front Office” – 2012 Update

I have received the latest stats for Councillors’ case-work submitted through the Council’s  “Front Office” system up to the end of April 2012. This is the end of the current Municipal year and so I have included the full year figures as well.

The main figures for the four months Jan-April 2012 are below, with the May 2011-April 2012 figures following in brackets:

Conservative

Cllr Sandra Vickers (Tilehurst) – 38 (75)

Cllr Isobel Ballsdon (Thames) – 35 (80)

Cllr Richard Willis (Peppard) – 28 (59)

Cllr Tom Stanway (Caversham) – 27 (42)

Cllr Azam Janjua (Church) – 24 (56)

Cllr Dave Luckett (Caversham) – 17 (35)

Cllr Tim Harris (Church) – 15 (34)

Cllr Emma Warman (Kentwood) – 10 (27)

Cllr Jenny Rynn (Kentwood) – 9 (33)

Cllr James Anderson (Kentwood) – 5 (11)

Cllr Fred Pugh (Mapledurham) – 5 (10)

Cllr Andrew Cumpsty (Caversham) – 4 (34)

Cllr Jeanette Skeats (Thames) – 3 (4)

Cllr David Stevens (Thames) – 2 (2)

Lib Dem

Cllr Daisy Benson (Redlands) – 31 (105)

Cllr Ricky Duveen (Tilehurst) – 24 (57)

Cllr Peter Beard (Tilehurst) – 8 (21)

Cllr Warren Swaine (Katesgrove) – 6 (14)

Cllr Rebecca Rye (Katesgrove) – 5 (35)

Cllr Glenn Goodall (Redlands) – 2 (37)

Labour

Cllr Tony Page (Abbey) – 82 (176)

Cllr Matt Rodda (Katesgrove) – 59 (107)

Cllr Jo Lovelock (Norcot) – 45 (132)

Cllr Mike Orton (Whitley) – 35 (74)

Cllr Sarah Hacker (Battle) – 33 (74)

Cllr Rachel Eden (Whitley) – 28 (95)

Cllr Pete Ruhemann (Southcote) – 28 (63)

Cllr Kelly Edwards (Whitley) – 27 (7)

Cllr John Ennis (Southcote) – 26 (72)

Cllr Paul Woodward (Church) – 22 (58)

Cllr Chris Maskell (Battle) – 14 (29)

Cllr Marion Livingstone (Minster) – 12 (18)

Cllr Bet Tickner (Abbey) – 11 (40)

Cllr Gul Khan (Battle) – 10 (38)

Cllr Paul Gittings (Minster) – 10 (32)

Cllr Deborah Edwards (Southcote) – 7 (27)

Cllr John Hartley (Park) – 5 (54)

Cllr Mohammed Ayub (Abbey) – 5 (15)

Cllr Peter Jones (Norcot) – 2 (11)

Cllr Graeme Hoskin (Norcot) – 1 (11)

Cllr Deborah Watson (Minster) – 0 (13)

Green

Cllr Rob White (Park) – 112 (434)

Cllr Melanie Eastwood (Park) – 20 (47)

Independent

Cllr Jamie Chowdhary (Peppard) – 24 (75)

Cllr Mark Ralph (Peppard) – 21 (64)

Once again each party has a spread of activity levels based on this one measure with Labour’s Cllr Watson picking up the booby prize. However, as I have stated before this is just one measure of Councillor activity and it should be borne in mind that some wards generate less casework than others and there are more ways of serving our constituents than just entering (sometimes trivial) cases onto the Front Office system.

New YouGov Poll – Lib Dems at Lowest Ever on Just 7%

There is a new YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sun newspaper which shows Labour’s lead increasing to 10% but with the Lib Dems dropping to their equal lowest rating ever, level with UKIP once again:

                   Conservative               34% (down 1%)

                   Labour                         44% (up 2%)

                                                     Lib Dem                        7% (down 1%)

                                                     UKIP                              7% (no change)

Labour seem to be benefitting mainly from the Lib Dem collapse. Conservatives are down but the key driver of Labour’s lead at present is the uniting of non-Conservative support behind Labour. For years we heard of the death of the two-party system but at present the two-party system appears to be reasserting itself.

Changes shown are compared to the last YouGov poll I reported on 30 April.

Reading Local Elections 2012

On Thursday and into the early hours of Friday morning Reading’s politicians gathered at the Rivermead leisure centre to watch the ballot boxes come in from the polling stations and be counted. After weeks of door knocking and delivering leaflets with our respective messages on them we were all keen to see what the public made of our campaigns.

After six weeks of chaos at the heart of the national government and the consequent slide in our opinion poll ratings I was expecting a difficult night. On arrival I chatted to two former Labour Councillors and caught up with others who I see at the annual election count. It was good to see that the atmosphere between the parties was generally good humoured. I spent much of the time watching the Church ward count and chatting to both my colleague Azam Janjua and the Labour ward Councillor. I understand that there was one incident when a Labour activist was unpleasant to a Lib Dem but that seemed to be the exception last night.

The highlight of the night for me was the result in Peppard ward. Jane Stanford-Beale is a first class candidate who has put in a huge amount of hard work, speaking to residents and delivering election literature. She will make an excellent local Councillor and she thoroughly deserved to win. She put up with the appalling negative campaign fought by the embittered Independent candidate without complaining and without responding publicly. Despite some of the worst lies and unfounded allegations I have ever seen in any election literature, her team did not descend to that level when occasionally questioned on the doorstep. We focussed on promoting Jane and left the mud-slinging to the Independent campaign. I will write more in due course but for now let me just say that there was no truth whatsoever in the many allegations of “vendettas”, “conspiracies” or “cabals”. What we saw was a ranting and embittered man who rather than focussing on the needs and ambitions of the people he sought to represent, instead focussed on his own sense of grievance and distorted view of those who had supported him and helped elect him previously. The margin of over 300 votes, despite a low turnout and difficult national picture was a credit to Jane and all of the hard-working team who supported her.

I campaigned mainly in Peppard, Caversham and Church wards and it was clear that many people were voting (or not voting) based on national issues. The main issues which came up were pensions and the Budget. It would be fair to say that rarely has a national Government done so much to handicap its own candidates in an important set of local elections!

In Reading as a whole the picture was of very low turnouts as Conservative and Lib Dem voters stayed at home. Labour gained seats but can claim little credit as their vote dropped in most wards as well, even where they won. The most significant statistical thing to note was that the Greens overtook the Lib Dems to become the third party in the town. Both parties elected a single Councillor but the Greens scored 3,757 votes compared to the Lib Dems’ 3,403 votes. In many wards the LDs were in last place on fewer than 100 votes: in Whitley they came sixth with just 57 votes behind the Common Sense Party, Independent and Green candidates!

I was very sad to lose good colleagues and friends in Azam Janjua, Emma Warman and Dave Luckett but we gain some very effective new blood in Jane Stanford-Beale and Ed Hopper. I look forward to working with them to hold the now majority Labour administration to account.

The summary across the Borough was:

Abbey: Labour hold – Lab 1,140, Cons 354, G 230, LD 135, CSP 87 (T/O 20.2%)

Battle: Labour hold – Lab 1,015, Cons 522, G 158, LD 106 (T/O 24.7%)

Caversham: Labour gain from Conservative – Lab 1,258, Cons 880, G 265, LD 168 (T/O 34.9%)

Church: Labour gain from Conservative – Lab 1,029, Cons 700, G 134, LD 94, CSP 79 (T/O 25.4%)

Katesgrove: Labour gain from Lib Dem – Lab 890, LD 257, Cons 237, G 157, Ind 42 (T/O 22.2%)

Kentwood: Labour gain from Conservative – Lab 1,052, Cons 796, G 144, CSP 126, LD 121 (T/O 30%)

Mapledurham: Conservative hold – Cons 695, Lab 136, LD 111, G 103 (T/O 41.4%)

Minster: Labour hold – Lab 1,351, Cons 600, LD 164, G 162 (T/O 29.4%)

Norcot: Labour hold – Lab 1,378, Cons 400, G 117, LD 96 (T/O 26.7%)

Park: Green gain from Labour – G 1,246, Lab 1,094, Cons 279, LD 54 (T/O 35.1%)

Peppard: Conservative regain from Independent – Cons 1,090, Ind 789, Lab 434, LD 294, G 210 (T/O 37.4%)

Redlands: Labour gain from Lib Dem – Lab 1,032, LD 425, Cons 273, G 251 (T/O 26%)

Southcote: Labour hold – Lab 1,364, Cons 478, LD 142, G 112 (T/O 32.3%)

Thames: Conservative hold – Cons 1,266, Lab 625, Ind 322, G 311, LD 282 (T/O 38.1%)

Tilehurst: Lib Dem hold – LD 897, Cons 604, Lab 510, UKIP 220, G 89 (T/O 32.1%)

Whitley: Labour hold – Lab 1,144, Cons 318, CSP 99, Ind 82, G 68, LD 57 (T/O 21.6%)

The Council composition is now – Labour 26, Conservative 12, Lib Dem 4, Green 3, Independent 1

Vote Conservative Today

Today I urge all my readers to vote Conservative wherever you are.

Here in Reading only a vote for the Conservative candidate is a vote for a strong voice on the Council, standing up for best value for money, a Council Tax freeze, an end to funding of Trades Unions and other cronies from Council Tax, and getting Reading moving. Labour have fought a dirty campaign with “dog-whistle” racist tactics against a Conservative candidate. The Greens have propped up the minority Labour administration, the Lib Dems are a declining force and the Independents are a ragtag bunch of oddities and people with a grudge. It was the Conservatives who launched the clean campaign pledge.

In London Boris offers the hope of a cut in Council Tax over the next four years and no return to the politics of envy and spend, spend, spend.. With the Police investigating widespread postal vote fraud allegations in Tower Hamlets it is important that every valid voter casts their ballot for Boris and honest campaigning.

Around the country Conservative Councils have track records of openness, cutting out waste and getting things done for their communities. David Cameron has issued the following message:

“My message to people up and down the country is clear: don’t let Labour do to your council what they did to the country.

“It’s Conservatives in local government who offer real value for money, cutting the waste so we keep council taxes low at the same time as delivering the best possible services.

“And in Westminster Conservatives are taking the difficult, long-term decisions in the national interest to sort out the mess left by the last Labour Government.

“In the face of opposition from Labour we’re bringing responsibility to the public finances, keeping mortgage rates low for families and reforming welfare to bring an end to the something for nothing culture.

“We’re backing aspiration, rewarding work by raising the personal allowance for 24 million taxpayers in Britain and taking 2 million of the lowest earners out of tax altogether.

“That is why I urge everyone across the country to vote Conservative today.”

On the London mayoral race, he said:

“In London, voters face a critical and simple choice – between the future and the past.

“Boris is the only candidate who represents London’s future. There’s no doubt about it, he delivers for Londoners and fights the city’s corner – believe me, I know.

“Now more than ever, London needs a Mayor who has the energy and focus to deliver jobs and growth. Boris has a plan to invest in transport infrastructure, housing and local high streets – not cut it. Boris also has a plan to create 200,000 jobs and cut council tax by 10%. But this plan is at risk if people don’t come out and vote to make it happen.

“The election really could go either way. If you stay at home you risk returning Ken to power. We simply cannot afford a return to the high taxes, waste, division, broken promises and hypocrisy of the past he represents.

“So if you don’t want that to happen, if you want London to move forwards with a man who unites and delivers then you need to come out today between 7am and 10pm and vote for Boris Johnson.”

So please do go out and Vote Conservative today.

New YouGov Poll – Labour’s Lead Down to 7%

There is a new YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sun newspaper which shows Labour’s lead further narrowing to 7% with the Lib Dems once again only just ahead of UKIP:

                   Conservative               35% (up 2%)

                   Labour                         42% (up 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                        8% (down 3%)

                                                     UKIP                              7% (down 1%)

YouGov polls seem to be jumping about a bit at the moment with one on Sunday showing the Conservatives down to 29% but that now seems to be an outlier. The post-Budget fall in Conservative support appears to have been halted and even slightly reversed with most polls in recent days. Let’s see how this week pans out but Boris is looking increasingly odds on to win in London, which would be a big blow for Labour and Ed Miliband.

Changes shown are compared to the last YouGov poll I reported on 21 April.

The History of the Conservative Party

Budgen’s Precinct Update – Planning Permission Granted

Me and Jane Stanford-Beale in the Car Park

I was delighted yesterday to be informed that planning permission has been granted by the Council for the resurfacing of a large part of the car park in Budgens Precinct (also known as Emmer Green Shopping Precinct). As part of the scheme a section of the uneven paving slabs in front of the shops will also be replaced with tarmac.

This is an issue I have taken up several times on behalf of local residents and it is great to see some long overdue action. Wolfe Property Services have clearly responded to the many representations from ward Councillors regarding the dangers of the uneven surfaces and the very deep potholes which have developed.

As I blogged before, the planning application cited two letters in support of their application (12/00351/FUL), one from me in August 2011 and one from Cllr Mark Ralph in November 2011. I am sure that if any other Councillor had written prior to the application being submitted that letter would have been included in evidence by the applicants!

Curiously, when I and my Conservative colleague Jane Stanford-Beale discussed chasing the matter up once again at the beginning of this year Cllr Ralph was very opposed to the suggestion and persuaded us that such correspondence would be “superfluous”.

No timescale has been set for the works to be undertaken and I have therefore written to Wolfe Property Services to thank them for their response to the public concerns and to ask them for an update as to when work will commence. I will keep readers and ward residents updated on what response I receive.

Application Received	Mon 27 Feb 2012
Address	Units 1 – 14 Cavendish Road Emmer Green Reading RG4 8XU
Proposal	Uplift existing paving slabs to front pedestrian walkway and change to tarmacadam finish
Status	Application Permitted

New ComRes Poll – Labour’s Lead Down to 5%

There is a new ComRes online poll published in today’s Independent which shows the Conservatives further trimming cutting Labour’s lead to 5% from 6% in the last ComRes online poll:

           Conservative            34% (no change)

                                        Labour                      39% (down 1%)

                                        Lib Dem                    10% (down 1%)

                                        UKIP                            9% (up 3%)

According to ComRes, Mr Cameron’s popularity is in line with that of the Conservatives, while Ed Miliband trails his party badly and Nick Clegg is less popular than the Lib Dems. Some 37 per cent of people say they like the Conservatives and 38 per cent Mr Cameron. In contrast,  45 per cent like Labour but only 21 per cent like Mr Miliband. Some 37 per cent like the Lib Dems, while 30 per cent like Mr Clegg.

Some 63 per cent of people agree with the statement that Mr Hunt should resign in the light of allegations that his office was passing information to News Corporation during its bid to take over BSkyB.  Only 12 per cent disagree and 24 per cent don’t know.

Methodology note: ComRes interviewed 2,015 GB adults online on 25 and 27 April 2012. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults and by past vote recall. Full tables at ComRes.

New Ipsos MORI Poll – Labour Lead at 3%

There is a new Ipsos MORI poll reported tonight for the Evening Standard showing the Labour lead at just 3% after a series of polls showing leads of around 8%:

         Conservative              35% (down 1%)

                                                        Labour                        38% (up 1%)

                                                        Lib Dem                      12% (up 1%)

I will update when more information is available.

New ICM Poll – Labour Move Into 8% Lead

There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow showing Labour taking an 8% lead over the Conservatives with UKIP down to just 3%:

         Conservative              33% (down 4%)

                                                    Labour                        41% (up 3%)

                                                    Lib Dem                      15% (up 2%)

                                                    UKIP                              3% (down 1%)

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 22-23 April 2012. 850 interviews were conducted on landlines and 150 on mobile phones.

Reading Conservatives Launch Local Election Manifesto

Reading Conservatives have launched their Manifesto for the local Council elections on 3^rd May with a pledge to freeze Council Tax again next year and hold a referendum on an elected Executive Mayor for Reading.

In further significant commitments Conservatives pledge to switch to “all out elections” every four years, to work for a direct rail link from Reading to Heathrow, to increase funding for tree planting, to implement a major bike-hire scheme, and to provide more primary and secondary school places across the borough.

The document also highlights key successes from the year when the Conservatives led the Council in coalition with the Lib Dems: these include, increasing the funding given to the voluntary and community sector; stopping the funding of Trade Union officials from Council Tax; new grants to the Gurkha community and to the African Caribbean community in order to reopen the Central Club; freezing of town centre short-term car park charges and freezing all parking charges in Caversham and Tilehurst; doubling of cycle parking in the town centre; and the doubling of apprenticeships and foster carers.

Conservative Leader Councillor Tim Harris said, “This is an exciting and radical Manifesto building on our successful year in control of Reading. We pressed for the freeze in Council Tax delivered this year but fear what Labour plans to do next year when there are no local elections. Only the Conservatives are pledged to deliver another freeze in Council Tax next year. If the people of Reading want a Council committed to quality services and best value for every Pound spent they should vote Conservative on 3^rd May.”

Conservative Deputy Leader Councillor Jeanette Skeats said, “We were the first administration to deliver a Council Tax freeze and demonstrated that we could work with another party in the interests of Reading people. We began cutting out Labour’s waste and reprioritising Council support to a wider range of voluntary and community groups. I urge people to support our excellent team of candidates who are pledged to deliver a Reading which works better for its people and not for the politicians.”

Click here to download the Manifesto in full.

New YouGov Poll – Labour’s Lead Narrows to 8%

Tonight’s YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Times newspaper shows Labour’s lead being trimmed back again to 8% with UKIP firmly in fourth place:

                   Conservative               33% (up 1%)

                   Labour                         41% (no change)

                                                     Lib Dem                        11% (up 3%)

                                                     UKIP                                8% (down 1%)

Changes shown are compared to the last YouGov poll I reported on 17 April.