New Populus Poll – Conservative Lead Unchanged at 10%

 

 

 

There is a new poll from Populus reported for tomorrow’s Times which shows an essentially unchanged picture from last month:

            Conservative              39% (down 1%)

            Labour                       29% (down 1%) 

            Lib Dem                      18% (no change)

UKIP are on 4% and the BNP 2%. The changes are within the margin of error from the last Populus poll.

UKIP Damaged by Double Expenses Trouble

The United Kingdom Independence Party has had its fair share of trouble with its elected representatives. However, despite this, it likes to pose as an anti-establishment party untainted by the Parliamentary expenses scandal and similar ails that have afflicted Westminster politicians. It is therefore very damaging for them that former UKIP MEP for the East of England, Tom Wise, has admitted fiddling his expenses and swindling the tax-payers out of £36,000. Wise claimed £3,000 per month in secretarial allowances but pocketed £2,500 of that while paying his secretary just £500 per month. He now faces a jail sentence of up to seven years.

Following the revelations about Wise, the Sunday Times has reported that the EU anti-fraud investigator “Olaf” has launched a wider investigation into UKIP’s use of MEP expenses. Internet speculation has suggested that former UKIP leader Nigel Farage is one of five MEPs that are under investigation by “Olaf”. That could terminally damage his attempt to stand against Commons Speaker John Bercow as an “anti-sleaze” candidate.

Both of the above cases come after the Electoral Commission won a case in the Court of Appeal that may lead to near bankruptcy for UKIP if they have to repay £350,000 in illegal donations. It also occurs at a time when the party has no leader and is about to enter a leadership contest. UKIP surprised many people (including me) with its success in the June Euro elections. It now faces a series of much sterner tests and the timing could hardly be worse for the party.

New Scottish TNS-BMRB Poll – Labour Lead Over SNP Increases to 14%

 

 

 

There is a new poll from TNS-BMRB reported for the Scottish Herald which shows Labour pulling well ahead of the SNP on Westminster voting intentions:

            Labour                       39% (up 3%)

            SNP                            25% (down 7%)

            Conservative              18% (down 1%)

            Lib Dem                      12% (up 3%)

With current UK-wide polls suggesting a sizeable Conservative majority at Westminster this poll indicates that Labour face near wipe-out in England and Wales if their vote is holding up well in Scotland. This morning’s Jackie Ashley column in the Guardian has a leak of Labour’s private polling which shows that they could be reduced to just 120 seats at the next General Election. This would be a catastrophe for Labour of monumental proportions, far, far worse than the defeat suffered by the Conservatives in 1997.

Remembrance Sunday

Today is Remembrance Sunday and our thoughts turn to those who gave their lives for freedom and democracy in two World Wars. I am occasionally shocked at how little some people know about the two wars, as they gradually recede out of memory and into the pages of the history books.

When I was at school history stopped at 1914 but nowadays most school children study the Second World War. However, too many seem to leave school with no understanding of the causes, events or sacrifices of either World War.

Remembrance Sunday is more than about the two World Wars. It has also become in recent years a chance to remember those who have given their lives in the more recent conflicts such as the Falklands War, as well as Gulf Wars 1 and 2, and now of course Afghanistan. As the death toll mounts, so does the list of grieving families and the injured. It is the latter that are so often forgotten by the media and the politicians. As a rough estimate, for every one death, three are injured. They bear the scars in their bodies and minds for the rest of their lives.

Whilst the memory of the two Worlds Wars may be fading, for many people therefore Remembrance Sunday has a new and very fresh meaning to them. On this Remembrance Sunday let us remember all those who have died in the course of serving this country in armed conflict but also those who have been injured and maimed in the course of their duty.

This country and others owes them a huge debt of gratitude.

New Angus Reid Poll – Conservative Lead at 14%

 

 

 

There is a new poll from Angus Reid Strategies reported for PoliticalBetting.com  which shows a reduced Conservative lead of 14%:

            Conservative              38% (down 2%)

            Labour                       24% (up 1%) 

            Lib Dem                     20% (no change)

The minor parties are: UKIP 6% (up 1%); BNP 4% (up 1%); Green 3% (nc); SNP/PC 4% (down 1%).

The changes are within the margin of error from the last poll but it would be foolish to read too much into these findings until Angus Reid’s credentials are more established as a UK pollster.

The Spitfire – A British Champion

Readers may enjoy these photos of the Battle of Britain Memorial Flight Spitfire I took on Wednesday:

New YouGov Poll – Conservative Lead Increases to 14%

 

 

 

There is a new poll from YouGov reported for Channel 4 which shows a slightly increased Conservative lead of 14%:

            Conservative              41% (no change)

            Labour                       27% (down 1%) 

            Lib Dem                      17% (up 1%)

The changes are within the margin of error from the last YouGov poll.

Merlin Helicopters Ready for Afghanistan

The first RAF Merlin helicopter crews are ready to deploy to Afghanistan following pre-deployment training in the United States. The Merlins, from RAF Benson in Oxfordshire, will deploy soon and will provide vital support to ground operations and increase the capacity of UK helicopter lift in Afghanistan by a further 25 per cent.

El Centro Naval Base in California is the US Navy’s main training base and has played host to crews from 28 and 78 Squadrons. They have been training for the unique challenges of the Afghan environment: the hot, high and dusty conditions.

The entire fleet is undergoing a £45M upgrade programme that will allow the helicopters to improve performance in the harsh conditions and protect against threats. Modifications include new rotor blades for ‘hot & high’ conditions and improved defensive aids against hostile threats.

Merlins can carry up to 20 personnel and will provide an additional capability to the Chinook and Lynx. Personnel from 78 Squadron are already in Afghanistan preparing for the arrival of the first helicopters, which are due by the end of the year.

The EU – A Conservative Way Forward

The following press release was issued by the Conservative Party today in response to the signing into law of the Lisbon Treaty. I have reproduced it verbatim:

The Lisbon Treaty has now been signed by President Klaus and will shortly become part of EU law, entering force on 1 December.  This is a situation which has been brought about by the Labour Party (aided by the Lib Dems), who could have instigated a referendum at any time prior to the Treaty’s ratification. Given this situation, the Conservatives have today announced a series of measures, which are summarised below and for which we will seek a mandate at a General Election. 

The measures are essentially in three areas.

One: ‘Never Again’ unilateral measures which we can take ourselves

An Irish style ‘referendum lock’ on any treaty handing over further powers from Britain to the EU.  We will amend the 1972 European Communities Act so that any future Treaty which transfers competences (powers) from Britain to the EU would have to be subject to a referendum, as is already effectively the case in Ireland. We will campaign on challenging our opponents to confirm that they will never seek to overturn this.

Similarly, a legal lock ensuring a referendum if any British Government tried to take Britain into the Euro.  We are pledged never to take Britain into the Euro but, to prevent any future British Government from trying to do so without a referendum we will also amend the 1972 Act at the same time to provide a similar safeguard.

A United Kingdom Sovereignty Bill, to ensure the ultimate sovereignty of the UK Parliament.  Unlike many other European countries Britain does not have a written constitution.  Given the increasing amount of EU law with which we have to deal we would amend the law to insert a sovereignty clause, to make it explicit that ultimately Britain’s Parliament is sovereign and cannot be overruled by the EU against its will.  This is similar in principle to the situation in Germany whereby the German constitution (the basic Law) is ultimately supreme. This would not mean striking down individual items of EU legislation but would provide ultimate constitutional safeguards against any attempts by EU judges to erode our sovereignty.

Full Parliamentary control over the self-amending or ‘ratchet’ clauses in the Lisbon Treaty:  The Lisbon Treaty contains a number of ratchet clauses (sometimes called ‘passerelles’) whereby the powers of the EU could be expanded in the future without a new treaty.  These clauses require all EU nations to agree, so we retain a national veto on their use.  We do not believe that any of these ratchet clauses should be used to increase the EU’s powers but, as a safeguard, we would change the law so that using any passerelle would require a British Government to pass an Act of Parliament (rather than a simple motion and a 90 minute debate, as currently proposed under Labour). 

These measures can be brought in unilaterally by an incoming Conservative   Government without the need to seek approval from our European partners.

Two:  ‘British Guarantees’ on the operation of Lisbon and social and employment legislation, which require negotiation with our EU partners

We will use the forthcoming General Election deliberately to seek a mandate to negotiate ‘British guarantees’ on the application of the Lisbon Treaty and on seeking to restore key powers to Britain. These would include:

A full opt-out from the Charter of Fundamental Rights (CFR).   Tony Blair told us that he had obtained an opt out from the CFR but he did not.  As Ministers have subsequently admitted he only obtained a ‘clarification’ as to how it would apply.  We want to upgrade this to a full opt out so that the CFR, which for instance would interfere with our trade union legislation, cannot be made to apply in Britain.

Greater protection against EU encroachment into the UK’s criminal justice system.   Lisbon provides us with an ‘opt in’ over criminal justice matters but we want broader protection provided by an additional protocol. This would protect against EU judges extending their control over our criminal justice system and we  also want to ensure that only British authorities can initiate criminal investigations in Britain.   

Restoration of control over social and employment legislation.  Lastly, we want to restore national control over those parts of social and employment legislation which have proved most damaging to the British economy.  For instance we would seek guarantees over the application of the Working Time Directive in our public services such as the fire service and the NHS.

We will establish a European Policy Committee of the Shadow Cabinet, chaired by William Hague, to work on the detail of these proposals.  

We will seek to give these measures legal effect by adding them to a future accession Treaty.  This is the same mechanism that will give effect to the ‘Irish guarantees’ and also the more recent ‘Czech guarantees’ and we would seek to mirror it for the above British guarantees too.   

Three:  The Longer Term

We will aim to implement these measures over the course of the next Parliament, and believe that they can stop Britain’s relationship with the EU from heading in the wrong direction. But if, over the lifetime of this Parliament, we do not succeed in negotiating the return of these powers; or if in fact the EU does move in the wrong direction, in those circumstances, then of course we can return to this subject in a manifesto for the Parliament after that. This is not something we want to happen. Nor is it something we expect to happen. But if those circumstances were to occur, we would not rule out a referendum on a wider package of guarantees to protect our democratic decision-making, while remaining a member of the European Union. However, that would be a judgement for the future, not for this election or for the next Parliament.

In summary:  A Conservative Government will never allow us to become part of a federal Europe and we have devised a series of specific measures which protect Britain from this happening in future.  We will seek a mandate from the British people to implement these measures at the forthcoming General Election.

You can find out more here.

New YouGov Poll – Conservative Lead Constant at 13%

 

 

 

There is a new poll from YouGov reported for the Telegraph which shows a constant Conservative lead of 13%:

            Conservative              41% (up 1%)

            Labour                       28% (up 1%) 

            Lib Dem                      16% (down 3%)

The Lib Dems will be concerned to see a 3% drop to 16% in this poll but we should see what other pollsters find before jumping to firm conclusions. The polls seem to be broadly consistent at the moment with Conservatives at 40-45%, Labour at 25-30% and the Lib Dems at 16-21%.

Reading Borough Council Report (Part 2)

I previously reported on the questions I submitted to the full Council meeting on 13 October and the answers I received. I promised to write a fuller report on the rest of the Council meeting but work and other things have prevented me from completing the second report until now.

The full Agenda for the meeting can be found here and I will follow the same format and Item numbers.

Item 3 – Petitions

There was a petition from Asif Rashid, a Hackney Carriage driver who was unhappy with the survey currently being undertaken by Reading Borough Council on Hackney Carriage conditions. There is a split within the Reading Taxi Association (RTA) which has caused many members to lose confidence in the current committee and its ability to represent their interests. The public gallery was packed as Mr Rashid read out his petition wording and made his presentation. Many in the gallery unfurled banners to protest at the actions of the RTA.

Item 4 – Questions from Members of the Public

Mr Tony Warrell asked the Council to give thought to health and safety at Waterloo Meadows Children’s Centre and Chestnut Walk and to provide the necessary life bouys.

 - The answer given was that the Council is about to conduct a full audit of bouy locations and re-conduct risk assessments along the length of the waterways (something that was at my request at the Environment Scrutiny Panel)

A Lockey asked how many extra metres of cycle lane (not shared with buses or taxis) have been constructed since 1997.

A Lockey then also asked how many extra metres of cycle lane (not shared with buses or taxis) have been removed since 1997.

 - Cllr Page gave a non-answer to both above questions in which he talked about the new Cycling Strategy and adding facilities but without saying how many metres had been added or taken away.

Mr Richard Royal asked for an explanation of the process by which the Council responds to requests for graffiti clean-up.

 - Cllr Gittings explained that the call centre log calls between 10am and 4pm and these are pcked up by Streetcare the following morning. However, racist or obscene grafitti is prioritised.

Marion Livingstone asked about changes in Housing and Council Tax Benefit and their implications for children and pensioners.

 - Cllr Lovelock gave a long answer which in essence said that from 2 November Child Benefit would no longer be taken into account as income for Housing and Council Tax Benefit purposes.

Matt Rodda asked for a list of works done in all publicly funded schools since 1998 and the approximate spend.

 - I have the table if anyone is interested!

Item 5 – Questions from Councillors

There were 27 questions tabled by Councillors of which of had three down and I reported previously. There are too many to list in detail but I will try to get the full list of questions and answers to post in future.

Item 6 – Firm Foundations – Reading Borough Council’s Housing Strategy 2009-14

This was a technical report and was agreed unanimously by all parties.

Item 7 – Review of the Statement of Gambling Licensing Principles

Another technical report which was agreed unanimously.

Item 8 – Additional Meeting of the Council – Civic Headquarters Relocation

This was a fascinating debate on what should have been a purely technical motion. Readers may recall that the Labour administration was proposing spending around £120m of Council Tax payers money to complete just phase one of a redevelopment project that would build a new Civic Centre and may in later phases eventually include a new theatre and library. Conservatives stopped this massively expensive project in its tracks in 2008 and forced a rethink on cheaper options that might include placing the Council’s “back-office” functions in an existing out-of-town location, saving the tax-payers millions of pounds.

The Council has been looking at new options through a Civic Board which comprises representatives of all three parties on the Council. The Civic Board met recently and agreed to propose a special Council meeting on 1 December to review all options and decide on a way forward. However, only one (Cllr Warren Swaine) of the two Lib Dem members attended the last Civic Board meeting and he reportedly agreed with the two major parties that this special meeting should take place. However, at the full Council meeting he and his party criticised the proposed meeting, at the same time criticising the time taken to reach this point and then advocating delaying the decision until at least January next year. In the end the Lib Dems abstained on the proposal that Cllr Swaine had previously agreed to, while Labour and Conservatives voted to proceed with the special meeting.

Item 9 – Review of Electoral Areas and the Number of Wards, Councillors and Frequency of Elections in Reading

This resulted from the proposal of Independent Cllr Tony Jones, backed by the Conservatives, at the CCEA Scrutiny Panel, that the number of Councillors in each ward should be reviewed and a process started that would lead to the redrawing of electoral boundaries and consideration given to “all-out” elections every four years, rather than 3 out of every 4, as now. The Council considered a full report by the Council’s Electoral Returning Officer which indicated that this exercise could not be commenced before June 2010 due to the pressure of preparation for the local elections in May 2010 and the likely General Election around that time. It was agreed unanimously to defer further consideration of the matter until June 2010.

Item 10 – Standards Committee – 14 July 2009

The Council received a report from the Standards Committee which had considered (amongst other things) a complaint about Cllr Warren Swaine’s anonymous site “Muckspreading”. Whilst not found to have breached the members Code of Conduct (because it was an anonymous site) the “sub-committee, and the independent members in particular, had expressed strong reservations about the wording and content of the website, which they considered to be inconsistent with the general principles of Council service contained in the Code. The sub-committee, had, therefore directed the monitoring officer to draw it to the attention of the Standards Board for England.”

Interestingly whilst this report was passed unanimously by all Councillors present, at the time of the vote Cllr Swaine got up and left his seat and therefore couldn’t vote.

Item 11 – Audited Final Accounts 2008/09

Another technical report which was passed unanimously. However, it highlighted the interesting fact that the Council has received a £3.6m VAT windfall which has increased the General Fund balance from £4.7m to £8.3m.

I will post a “Part 3” later which will discuss the motions that the Council debated that night.

Saw VI

Last night being Halloween I went to the Vue Cinema in Reading to watch the latest in the “Saw” series of movies. For the uninitiated, the “Saw” movies revolve around the story of John Kramer a former engineer and cancer sufferer who seeks vengeance on those who crossed him by devising macabre “games” where they have a chance of survival but only by (usually) mutilating themselves or making impossible choices about who else lives or dies.

Kramer operates strict rules in that he only chooses people who have hurt him or his family and who have themselves demonstrated a disregard for human life. He creates a trap or scenario and plays them a video or audio tape explaining the rules of the “game” which invariably contestants ignore or misconstrue. In an earlier film he has died of his cancer but has ensured that the “games” continue by leaving instructions to his accomplices.

The latest film tidies up a lot of the loose ends from previous films, explaining the involvement of his ex-wife and giving the lead to the detective (Hoffman) that used to pursue him but now is a convert to his methods. We follow his setting of the “games” as the FBI close in on him. There is the usual brutality and horrific choices, and also one or two new loose ends that could lead to “Saw VII” next year.

Director Kevin Greutert has created an action packed movie with some surprising twists and turns in the plot. There are also the usual flash backs to previous movies to explain the background to the current action. This is a chilling movie that fits well in the sequence but also stands alone in its own right for those who have not seen the previous episodes.

This is not a film for the squeamish but does force the viewer to consider the possible consequences of decisions we make daily that may affect others’ lives. It also made me reflect on how I might react if faced with the kinds of choice where I could only save one or two lives out of several people I know. Not a position I hope or expect ever to be in.

 

New ICM Poll – Tory Lead Still at 17%

 

 

 

There is a new ICM poll tonight for tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph which shows a continuing huge Conservative lead of 17%:

            Conservative              42% (down 2%)

            Labour                       25% (down 2%) 

            Lib Dem                      21% (up 3%) 

This is good news for the Lib Dems and bad news for Labour. Conservatives will be content to be above 40% in this poll and delighted with the evidence of a sustained lead of this magnitude.

Worryingly, a leaked Government report tonight suggests that BNP support could increase by 50% in their strongholds of Blackburn, Leicestershire and Stoke-on-Trent, at the next General Election.

October Activity Report

 

 

 

 

My October 2009 activity stats are below. It was a quieter month than September. However I was away for almost a week at Party Conference in Manchester:

            Ward Surgery – 1

            Committees and Panels Attended – 2

            Full Council Meetings Attended – 1

            Community Group Mtgs Attended – 2

            External Committees and Panels – 1

            Briefings with Officers – 0

            School Governors’ Meeting – 0

            Political Conservative Group Meetings – 2

            Front Office* Enquiries Submitted – 7

            Apologies sent – 1

*The old “Acolaid” Councillor’s enquiry system has been replaced with a new system called “Front Office”.

Michal Kaminski – “A Strong Friend of Israel”

I have written before about the truly disgusting campaign against the Polish leader of the Conservative and Reformists Group in the European Parliament. Labour Ministers have been active in the campaign to smear the Conservative Party by association and have claimed that Kaminski is homophobic and anti-semitic. Many people have testified in support of Michal Kaminski but still the smears continue.

One source that has been cited against him is the Chief Rabbi of Poland, Michael Schudrich, who previously said “…it is clear that Mr Kaminski was a member of NOP, a group that is openly far right and neo-nazi. Anyone who would want to align himself with a person who was an active member of NOP and the Committee to Defend the Good Name of Jedwabne (which was established to deny historical facts of the massacre at Jedwabne) needs to understand with what and by whom he is being represented.”

The Rabbi has now clarified his earlier remarks and mounted a strong attack on those who are smearing Kaminski. In his most recent remarks he said “There is no doubt that Kaminski is a strong friend of the State of Israel. He himself has spoken out against anti-Semitism on several occasions during the past decade. It is a grotesque distortion that people are quoting me to prove that Kaminski is an anti-Semite. Portraying Kaminski as a neo Nazi plays into the painful and false stereotype that all Poles are anti-Semitic. I would also like to clarify that the headline of James Macintyre article of July 29, 2009 entitled: “Jewish Leaders Turn on Cameron’s Tories: Poland’s chief rabbi and others call on Cameron to sever ties with Polish MEP” does not represent what I said to the author. I made no political statement and this headline is misleading and untrue.”

It is too much to hope that James Macintyre will offer Kaminski an apology but perhaps it is not too much to hope that the nasty, personal, and inaccurate smears by senior Labour Party figures will now stop. Michal Kaminski is a moderate mainstream politician from a conservative Catholic country. His views will not always accord precisely with the secular liberal values of most of Western Europe but an anti-semite and homophobe he most certainly is not. Labour should look a little more closely at their own record before trying to make personal attacks on others.