There is a new YouGov poll reported tonight for tomorrow’s Sunday Times showing the Conservatives maintaining a 10% lead over Labour:
Conservative 41% (no change)
Labour 31% (no change)
Lib Dem 17% (up 2%)
David Cameron has seen his personal rating soar by 17% in the last month, giving him a +29% positive rating. However, as the Times article surmises, this could be linked to the tragedy of the death of Cameron’s son Ivan in the last few weeks.
One piece in the article that is simply nonsense is the assertion at the end that the Conservatives should be 20% in order to be sure of winning a majority. When will commentators learn that polling organisations have made massive revisions to the way they conduct their trade. Thus opinion polls are unlikely to show the massive leads that some showed in the run up to 1997. As long as the Conservatives remain in the 40’s and about 10% ahead of Labour they should achieve an overall majority.
Martin Baxter’s “Electoral Calculus” site would give the Conservatives an overall majority of 26 based on this poll:
Conservative 338 seats
Labour 247 seats
Lib Dem 34 seats
I am indebted to Jane Griffiths for pointing me to an interesting Internet gizmo that allegedly analyses a blog’s writing style and comes to conclusions about the author as a person. I can assure you that I don’t take such things seriously at all but this is what it says about me:
The analysis indicates that the author of
is of the type:
INTJ – The Scientists
The long-range thinking and individualistic type. They are especially good at looking at almost anything and figuring out a way of improving it – often with a highly creative and imaginative touch. They are intellectually curious and daring, but might be physically hesitant to try new things.
The Scientists enjoy theoretical work that allows them to use their strong minds and bold creativity. Since they tend to be so abstract and theoretical in their communication they often have a problem communicating their visions to other people and need to learn patience and use concrete examples. Since they are extremely good at concentrating they often have no trouble working alone.
If there were to be any truth in this then I imagine that some are not bad qualities to have in a local politician!
It would be fun to see other bloggers’ outcomes.