New YouGov Poll – Tory Lead Up to 18%

 

 

 

There is a new YouGov poll reported tonight for tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph showing a massive 18% lead for the Conservatives, up from a mere 7% lead last month after a small post G20 “bounce” for Labour:

            Conservative          45% (up 4%)

            Labour                       27% (down 7%)

            Lib Dem                    18% (up 2%)

As always one poll does not a trend make but this is consistent with the last couple of major national polls on the parties’ standings. We will have to wait a bit to see the impact of yesterday’s budget but I suspect that it is unlikely to improve Labour’s position.

Move Over Darling

Watch this video link to see bumbling Chancellor Alistair Darling completely shredded by BBC’s Political Correspondent Nick Robinson. He conducts a far more effective interview than Radio 4 Today Programme’s Evan Davies.

Hat tip Iain Dale.

Don’t Trust Immediate Post Budget Polls

There are two different polls already out on yesterday’s Budget. The first to come out on the Politics Home site suggests that people do not believe Alistair Darling’s budget forecasts, with only 9% having “full faith” in his predictions. The site hints that the Budget has made people markedly LESS likely to vote Labour than they were before Darling stood up. The piece concludes with the confident statement that Conservative opinion poll leads of 20%+ are now once again likely.

The second findings are from a snap Populus poll in tomorrow’s Times newspaper. This finds that most people support the major individual measures in the Budget, with the exception of the increase in fuel duty. It also finds that more people trust Darling and Brown to deal with the economy than Osborne and Cameron.

In both cases I prefer to wait and see what the normal scheduled opinion polls find. It is often the case that the effects of a budget take a while to sink in and immediate reactions are often completely reversed by the following weekend. I suspect that when the full enormity of the Government’s financial plight sinks in to the public that Labour’s ratings will plumb new depths. The unknown is which of the other parties will benefit.

Celebrating St George’s Day – 23 April

Today we celebrate St George the patron saint of England. According to legend he was a Turkish Christian who also lived in Palestine and served as a Roman soldier at the end of the third century. He objected to Roman persecution of Christians and was imprisoned and tortured, eventually being beheaded in Palestine. 23^rd April was designated “St George’s Day” in 1222 AD. He is venerated across all branches of Christendom.

As well as being the patron saint of England he is also the patron saint of Russia, Portugal, Greece, Ethiopia, Lithuania, Georgia and Palestine. He is also venerated in numerous cities and towns including Moscow and Beirut. His legendary slaying of a dragon is believed to be just that; a legend.

Many people believe that 23 April should be a Bank Holiday in England and I would like to see this replace the early May Bank Holiday.

Happy St George’s Day to all my English, Russian, Portuguese, Greek, Ethiopian, Lithuanian, Georgian and Palestinian readers!