New Populus Poll – Lib Dems Drop 5%
Political Betting has news of a new Populus poll for ITV. It shows the Conservatives unchanged and Labour up 1%. However the striking change is that the Lib Dems are down 5% from the last Populus poll:
Conservative 39% (no change)
Labour 27% (up 1%)
Lib Dem 17% (down 5%)
Of the minor parties, UKIP are on 6% and the BNP and SNP on 4% each. The Greens are on 2% and Plaid Cymru just 1%. Again the Conservatives are just under 40% but the 12% lead would be enough to give them a decent majority of 52 seats according to “Electoral Calculus”.
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About Richard…
Richard is a Conservative Councillor on Reading Borough Council representing Peppard ward since 2007, having been re-elected in May 2011. He previously represented Thames ward from 2001 to 2004. He is currently the Conservative Shadow Cabinet Member for Strategic Planning and Transport on Reading Borough Council. Richard stood for Parliament in Sutton and Cheam in 2005 and from 2005-2008 was Chief of Staff to Rob Wilson MP (Reading East). He has a wide range of media appearances under his belt including Newsnight, Channel 4 News and BBC Radio.
If there is anything that you would like to contact Richard about please email rik_w07@ntlworld.com. All emails will be treated in confidence.
This is his personal blog and comments and articles do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conservative Party or Reading Borough Council.
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Maybe they dropped 5% when they realised Gareth Epps was going full time candidate for Reading East… Or maybe the electorate read Orangepan’s blog. One will never know. Remember Lib Dems are winning here.
I note the election result in ( I believe ) Manchester ,
Labour held the seat with 37% of the votes(down from 51% a year ago) LDs were second , BNP third,,and the Tories were?????.
This was in Hazel Blear’s constituency and she is not exactly flavour of the month at the moment!
Mr Thomas the result in Irwell Riverside, Salford was:
Lab 38% (-7)
LD 18% (-22)
BNP 17% (+17)
Cons 12% (-3)
Green 8%
UKIP 8%
But then also last night we had Barton, North Lincs:
Cons 64% (+14)
Lab 27% (+11)
LD 9% (-7)
Ind (-18)
And Cottesmore, Rutland:
Cons 68% (+3)
LD 32% (+32)
UKIP (-35)
So the results were all over the place but with Conservatives doing well overall.
There is something seriously wrong with your vote share changes in the Salford Irwell seat .
The result in 2008 was Lab 888 LD 337 Con 286 BNP 233
giving the following vote share changes in the byelection
Lab 38% -13
LDem 18% -1
BNP 17% + 4
Con 12% – 4
Gre/UKIP 7% each + 7 each
The detailed data tables from this new poll are now on the Populus website . We should note the sample size was 1,000 compared to the 1,500 for a Populus Times Poll . We should also note that in this poll Populus have only weighted the LibDems to a 2005 % of 12% instead of their normal 13% therefore 2% of the supposed 5% drop is down to a change in weighting not a change in support .
68 % of the vote in Rutland is very impressive until you realise that it was a 2 horse race and so over 50% for the winner was not as spectacular as the number seems.
Barton Tories gain 14% Labour gain, (yes gain) 11%—–Swing to Con from Labour 1.6% Hmmm, i’m yet to be convinced!
Conservative vote share in Salford down 3% — and finishing 4th –obviously not a Tory area , but not really a good result.
Richard—-as a committed Conservative you will be aware of the party’s policy on a referendum on the question of Europe.
What is that policy?