Norwich North – An Analysis
Now that a few hours have passed since the sensational results in Norwich North were declared it is worth reflecting on the fortunes of each of the significant parties that contested the seat and what conclusions can be drawn.
Conservative – Chloe Smith will enter Parliament as not only the youngest current MP (aged 27) but also the youngest ever Conservative woman to represent the party in the Commons. She grew up locally and attended a comprehensive school before graduating from York University. She is exactly the type of “new” Conservative face that David Cameron is keen to project and I have no doubt that she will play a prominent role in the run up to the next General Election, with appearances on Question Time and other frontline TV programmes.
The result was better for the Conservatives than many pundits predicted. Naturally CCHQ sought to lower expectations but even some Conservative colleagues contacted me to tell me that my prediction of a 5,000 to 8,000 majority was way over the top. Smith was always the favourite in this by election but she had an uphill struggle in many ways as a representative of one of the three big parties in a by election called as a result of the expenses scandal. Contrary to some assertions, Norwich North is not a core Conservative seat that was lost in the 1997 landslide. It remained Labour in all but the worst election results for Labour, resisting Margaret Thatcher’s appeal in 1979 and Heath’s in his 1970 victory. It is symbolic of Labour’s current predicament that it has been lost, and lost so badly.
Labour – the resignation of a popular sitting Labour MP over the way he was treated by his own party was never going to be the back-ground for an easy by-election campaign. However, revelations that the Labour candidate Chris Ostrowski was relatively recently a Conservative student who offered his services to the Conservative front bench would have done nothing to shore up the Labour core vote. His affliction with Swine flu in the latter stages of the campaign took him off the campaign trail and was seen as a metaphor for the Labour condition.
It is clear that the Labour hierarchy was resigned to defeat but the scale of their collapse and the consequent Conservative majority should set alarm bells ringing in Downing Street. The seat was way down the Conservative target list (around 162nd) and a similar collapse would wipe out many Government ministers including Chancellor Alastair Darling. There will be many very nervous Labour back-benchers tonight reflecting on their future or lack of it.
Lib Dem – the difficulties in finding a suitable candidate for the Lib Dems were well documented with April Pond (and her own personal moat) being selected after two others had refused the challenge. They fought a vigorous campaign and their usual cheer-leaders in the media and blogosphere were bullish about their chances of overtaking Labour and being the only challengers to the Conservatives.
Throughout the 1990’s and into the 2000’s the Lib Dems’ by-election campaign machine was feared by both of the major parties. Victories were won by the party from seemingly impossible third positions and huge swings were achieved. That machine appears clapped out and despite some of the dodgiest bar charts I have ever seen, including the final one which sought to show that “Lib Dems Overtake Labour”, the party saw their vote share and their actual vote fall. They came nowhere near their much vaunted aim of second place and despite all the difficulties the Labour campaign experienced the Lib Dems finished about 1,400 votes behind them. Only a few hundred votes separated them from UKIP and the ignominy of a fourth place.
UKIP – this was the surprise of the campaign. No commentator I saw, or activist who had visited Norwich, predicted such a strong UKIP showing. As in the Euro elections, UKIP seem to have found an ability to campaign and get their vote out that has surprised many people including me. Glenn Tingle is ex-Army and had to endure the suggestion that he had previously been a member of the National Front. The UKIP vote rose 9.5% to almost 12% and they were in serious competition for third place with the Lib Dems.
Green – this was in many ways a dream situation for the Green Party. They had a strong local Council presence and selected one of their better known Councillors Robert Read as their candidate. The Greens do not have many strong local government bases but Norwich is one of them. In circumstances when many voters saw the three major parties as “all at it”, in claiming unwarranted expenses, the Greens might have expected at least to be challenging for second place. Their vote did rise 7.1% to 9.7% but to finish in fifth place must be bitterly disappointing to them.
Craig Murray – the former ambassador to Uzbekistan stood on an anti-sleaze ticket but failed to garner even 1,000 votes. Even on his own blog he admits that he “was rubbish”.
BNP – the BNP might have expected to do well following their Euro election success but they only managed a distant seventh place. Despite the anti-politician sentiment evident so often the people of Norwich North had no appetite for the extremists of the BNP.
So how did I do?
Turnout: 50-55% – it was in fact 46%. I was close but clearly more people chose to stay at home than I had anticipated.
Conservative Majority: 5,000-8,000 – it was 7,348. I think I can feel well satisfied that despite turnout being below my estimate, the Conservative majority was at the top of my range.
Placings: Lib Dems second, Labour third and Greens fourth with an improved share – completely wrong. I expected the Lib Dems to do much better and I hadn’t accounted for such a strong UKIP showing. The Greens did improve their share but not as much as I expected.
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About Richard…
Richard is a Conservative Councillor on Reading Borough Council representing Peppard ward since 2007, having been re-elected in May 2011. He previously represented Thames ward from 2001 to 2004. He is currently the Conservative Shadow Cabinet Member for Transport on Reading Borough Council. 
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Slightly bending the truth because the Tories held Norwich North in 1992 by 266 votes when they only won an overall majority of 21, but I agree with pretty much all the sentiments in this article.
Perhaps an interesting point might be that the Conservative vote held up quite well,being only 2,000 down on the general election of 2005.
However the Labour vote has completely collapsed from 21,907 to just 6,243. By the look of it these voters have either stayed at home or gone to some of those ‘insignificant’ others,ie the Greens and UKIP ,both of whom came very close to pipping the collapsing Libdems for third place.
True ,a Tory victory was expected, but I suggest the reason is more the collapsing Labour support than anything that the Tories are offering as an alternative.
Its worth pointing out that Norwich North is so low on the Tory list because by the time of the GE, the boundaries are being redrawn with more Labour voters in the constituency. That said, ive heard it suggested that thisll give them an extra 2000 voters top – if Chloe can keep this huge majority she should be fine.
I think Howard’s spot on. Labour’s vote has collapsed. If it continues to stay at this level, David Cameron will win the General Election with a good majority on the lowest turnout in a British General election since the second world war. And Howard is also correct about the lack of a Conservative alternative. As Peter Hitchens said on Any Questions, a vote for David Cameron is a vote for another 5 years of New Labour, and that is the real crisis at the heart of British politics.
Bob – Peter Hitchins talks every increasing nonsense. David Cameron is nothing like New Labour and I would not be advocating a Conservative Government if he was. The COnservatives have over the last week articulated an economic policy that is markedly different to Labour’s with regulation returning to the Bank of England from Gordon Brown’s failed FSA.
The people of Norwich North voted for change and that is what they will get!
Unfortunately, for all the major parties concerned, the truth is that they all received significantly fewer votes than in 2005. Despite the hype in the media.
Chloe Smith saw a reduction in the conservative vote and at the end of the day 39% of the 45% that could even be bothered to engage with the process says a lot.
Bloggers are not addressing the fact that way too few people voted. As usual. It’s just one big game.
Yes all received fewer votes but that is a function of by-election turnout. People know that a by-election will not change a government and therefore turnouts are usually lower. The fact that it was held during the holiday season and the “plague on all your houses” feeling will also have contributed. Chloe Smith now has a task to convince the wider Norwich North electorate that they should return her at the General Election. I think she has a very good chance.
Richard—Without doubt this government (and GB in particular )are responsible for allowing the economic situation to become as bad as it has become .
They allowed the banks to take the stupid risks with money that they didn’t really have , and sat back content with the revenue that the false bubble was generating for the treasury. By allowing the bubble to grow and grow,when it burst , triggered by the American housing market, the effects in the UK were always going to be much worse because of what our government had allowed to happen here!
Obviously things must change now, but I don’t recall hearing many loud warnings of impending doom issued by the Conservative party.
It would be wonderful if the Conservatives were to get in at the next election based on good ,strong policies that the people of the UK believed in, rather than get elected because this Labour government have been so bloody bad.
For a start
……Cut immigration to a figure equivalent to no more than the number who leave the UK
……Seriously cut back the vast amounts of money spent on quangos
……Deal with law and order by using a system of deterrent sentencing to deter offending—and make the sentence passed to be ‘honest’ ,in other words served in full
……Abolish council tax on primary residences and collect the equivalent on national income tax
……Any cuts in the NHS should happen in the much expanded layers of upper and middle management
How many more would you like to hear? ——the problem is that the country needs a major party like the Conservatives to have the guts to make radical changes—–but is not going to get it.
Such a shame!
Mr Thomas –
……Cut immigration to a figure equivalent to no more than the number who leave the UK – cant be done due to EU membership
……Seriously cut back the vast amounts of money spent on quangos – already Conservative policy
……Deal with law and order by using a system of deterrent sentencing to deter offending—and make the sentence passed to be ‘honest’ ,in other words served in full – I agree
……Abolish council tax on primary residences and collect the equivalent on national income tax – I disagree but CT should be reviewed
……Any cuts in the NHS should happen in the much expanded layers of upper and middle management – I agree
Richard—- Most immigration to the UK comes from outside the EU and so is controllable! There has also been a levelling off of the numbers coming here from Eastern Europe,so I,m afraid that hiding behind th EU won’t remove the question.
Which brings be to a further policy
……. The people of the UK deserve a vote on Europe
I know that Tory policy currently says this—-but only if there is a Tory government before the treaty is fully ratified.
But what about the situation that is likely to occur , which is that it will be too late.!!
What the people deserve is a vote on our continued membership of the EU !!
Richard—I wonder if you think that council tax is a fair and proper tax—-consider that the lower the income of a household , then the greater percentage of that income is needed to pay the tax.
Consider also the cost of collecting it—RBC spends £1.6 million annually collecting it, and this figure rises to nearer £2.5 million if you take into account the council tax benefit system admin costs.
Perversely the council tax benefit system exists to help people to cope with tax bills that they don’t earn the money to be able to cope with—-how silly is that?
Mr Thomas – I can’t think of a single tax that everyone considers “fair”. Council Tax is no more or less fair than VAT or the TV licence. What you say though is not true. Millions of poorer households receive Council Tax benefit and many such as students etc don’t pay it. Some form of property tax is efficent and easy to collect as properties tend not to move! That is not to say that CT could not be improved upon but definately not by a local income tax.
Richard—–I’m most certainly not backing the Libdem idea of local income tax, but proposing that council tax should be abolished and the same amount collected by way of national income tax,less the saved admin costs as the national system tax system obviously exists.
I would suggest that income tax is a fair tax and based on the ability to pay , which council tax most certainly is not!
Talking of tax efficiency ,most income tax is collected via PAYE which has to be administered by the employer—how easy is that?
Good point though on the TV license ,which is quite simply another tax which is not based on the ability to pay—–simple solution to that is to abolish that as well and either make a grant to the BBC from central funds or self fund via advertising(or possibly a combination.)
Moving back to council tax take 3 properties in one street
1……..occupied by 2 pensioners who receive state pension plus occupatioal pension (income 15,000)
2……..occupied by a family of 4 , he is working and she looks after 2 small children(income £28,000)
3……..occupied by a family of 4, the two children now grown up but living at home,all working( income£88,000)
Are you seriously telling me ,Richard , that all of these households should be paying the same amount of council tax?
and that this is somehow fair!
Mr Thomas – we are getting somewhat off the subject of the thread. Perhaps I will write something soon on taxation!
Richard—–please do ——I’m all ears on plans for fair taxation.
” Contrary to some assertions, Norwich North is not a core Conservative seat that was lost in the 1997 landslide. It remained Labour in all but the worst election results for Labour, resisting Margaret Thatcher’s appeal in 1979 and Heath’s in his 1970 victory. It is symbolic of Labour’s current predicament that it has been lost, and lost so badly.”
The pre 1983 Norwich North is different from the current NN. It included just Norwich city areas and nothing from Broadland