There is a new poll today from YouGov of Welsh voting intentions which shows a surge in Conservative support at the expense of both Labour and the Lib Dems:
Labour 34% (down 8.7%)
Conservative 31% (up 9.6%)
Lib Dem 12% (down 6.4%)
Plaid Cymru 15% (up 2.4%)
At the last General Election the Conservatives won just three seats in Wales against Labour’s 29, with the Lib Dems on 4 and Plaid on 3. An Independent won one seat. This poll suggests that the Conservatives could gain 9 seats, giving them 12 and Labour lose 9, leaving them with 20. The Lib Dems could lose 2 of their current 4 seats.
This would be a remarkable turnaround in a country that has been rock-solid Labour for generations. It would also be only slightly better than the June Euro election results, when, for the first time since 1918, Labour were beaten in Wales.
It raises the interesting question of why, if the Conservatives can come almost level with Labour in Wales, when they were wiped out in 1997, they cannot do better in Scotland than the 16-20% they are currently polling there.