Conservative 33% (no change)
Labour 30% (up 2%)
Lib Dem 29% (down 1%)
This suggests that the Lib Dem boost following last Thursdays leadership debate is already beginning to fade. Perhaps the impact of the volcanic ash on the pollsters abilities is not fatal after all!
Lib Dem 32% (up 12%)
Conservative 31% (down 7%)
Labour 28% (down 3%)
This literally the most incredible poll I have ever seen (i.e. completely lacking in credibility). The idea that any party could achieve a jump of 12% is ludicrous and the idea that the Lib Dems could actually be in the lead is equally ridiculous. I have been doorknocking all day today as well as last night and there is no indication whatsoever of such a change. In fact I have struggled to find a single voter who has stated that they are planning to vote Lib Dem. What is evident on the doorsteps is a firming of support to the Conservatives from Labour and undecideds.
I have posted this poll despite its likely rogue status but I am confident that by next weekend the Lib Dem boost will have faded and the polls will once more be reflecting the real position.
There is a new poll from Communicate Research reported tonight for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror which shows the Lib Dems receiving a significant boost, putting them ahead of Labour:
Conservative 31% (down 4%)
Lib Dem 29% (up 8%)
Labour 27% (down 2%)
It will be interesting to see whether the Lib Dems can maintain their higher rating into next week. Personally I doubt it.
ComRes telephoned a random sample of 1,006 GB adults on 16 and 17 April 2010. Data were weighted by past vote recall and demographically. Full tables at http://www.comres.co.uk
There is a new ICM poll in tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph which confirms a Lib Dem boost following the first of the leaders’ debates. However, unlike yesterday’s YouGov poll the Lib Dems are in third place:
Conservative 34% (down 3%)
Labour 29% (down 2%)
Lib Dem 27% (up 7%)
There will be more polls tonight and I would be surprised if at least one didn’t show the Lib Dems in second place.