New ICM Poll – Labour Just 2% Ahead

There is a new ICM poll in tomorrow’s Guardian showing a tiny Labour lead of just 2%:

            Conservative              35% (down 2%)

            Labour                       37% (up 1%) 

                                                  Lib Dem                      15% (down 1%)

This is a small change on last months 1% Conservative lead but as I have observed before, for Labour to be just 2% ahead of the Conservatives is remarkable. Many of us who follow polls had expected a substantial Labour lead by now. In reality Labour are now between 2% and 6% ahead.

In other findings this poll finds the “No” campaign well ahead of the “Yes” supporters by 58% to 42% of those who have made up their minds and are certain to vote. Not included are the 23% who are still undecided.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,033 adults aged 18 and above by telephone on 15-17 April 2011.