New ComRes Poll – Labour Lead Now Just 3% as “No2AV” Take a Big Lead

There is a new ComRes poll published in tomorrow’s Independent which shows the Labour lead over the Conservatives now down to just 3%:

              Conservative             34% (down 1%)

                                        Labour                      37% (down 2%)

                                        Lib Dem                    15% (up 5%)

The No campaign goes into Thursday’s referendum on the voting system with a decisive lead of 66 to 34 per cent,  according to a the poll.

It suggests that opposition to a switch to the alternative vote (AV) is hardening.  Last week, ComRes found that 40 per cent will  vote Yes to AV and 60 per cent will back the current first-past-the-post system. The UK-wide figures are based on those people who are absolutely certain to vote in the referendum, with “don’t knows” excluded.

The latest survey found that 44 per cent of people say they are absolutely certain to vote. Some 15 per cent of this group say they have not yet make up their minds how they will vote. When “don’t knows” are shown separately, the No camp enjoys a commanding lead of 56 to 29 per cent.

Current Labour supporters, who are seen as crucial by both camps, oppose AV by a margin of 60 to 40 per cent.  Conservative supporters reject AV by an overwhelming 88 to 12 per cent, while Liberal Democrat supporters back AV by a majority of 72 to 28 per cent. 

ComRes telephoned a random sample of 1033 adults across the United Kingdom on 28 April – 1 May 2011.

Canadian Conservatives Sweep to Victory

Prime Minister Stephen Harper

Conservatives in Canada have swept to a stunning victory in last night’s General Election, with Prime Minister Stephen Harper achieving an overall majority in the country’s House of Commons for the first time. The Opposition Liberal party was crushed, as was the pro-independence Bloc Quebecois in French-speaking Quebec.

Harper fought an effective campaign, winning seats across Canada, and achieving what many commentators thought impossible. Even as late as last night some were predicting that he would be short of an overall majority. Since he took over as leader he has led the Conservatives to improved positions at successive General Elections, as the party recovered from its previous splits and reduction to just 2 seats in the Commons. Very few Prime Ministers in any democratic country can claim such an illustrious record.

The results for the 308 seat Commons are as follows:

           Conservative – 167 seats (+24)

           New Democratic Party – 102 seats (+66)

           Liberal – 34 seats (-43)

           Bloc Quebecois – 4 seats (-43)

           Green – 1 seat (+1)

Thus Harper will have a majority but he will also have a numerically strong Opposition. However, some reports suggest that the NDPs success led to a lot of “paper” candidates being elected, which could lead to problems with party unity as some hold rather eccentric views!