New YouGov Poll – Labour’s Lead Narrows to 8%

Tonight’s YouGov poll for tomorrow’s Sunday Times newspaper shows Labour’s lead being trimmed back again to 8% with UKIP firmly in fourth place:

                   Conservative               33% (up 1%)

                   Labour                         41% (no change)

                                                     Lib Dem                        11% (up 3%)

                                                     UKIP                                8% (down 1%)

Changes shown are compared to the last YouGov poll I reported on 17 April.

New ComRes Poll – Labour Lead Cut to 6%

There is a new ComRes online poll published in tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday which shows the Conservatives cutting Labour’s lead to 6% from 10% in the last ComRes telephone poll:

           Conservative            34% (up 1%)

                                        Labour                      40% (down 3%)

                                        Lib Dem                    11% (no change)

                                        UKIP                            6%

The Martin Baxter calculator shows a Labour majority of 52 seats (on new boundaries) with the Conservatives losing nearly 80 seats. The Lib Dems would be reduced to 13 seats.

Leadership trackers

David Cameron’s rating has dropped since the start of the year, when he was still enjoying a post-Brussels bounce. Ed Miliband’s rating remains lower than Nick Clegg’s.

David Cameron is turning out to be a good Prime Minister

___   ____Dec ’10  Jan ’11  Apr  May  June  July  Aug  Sept  Oct  Dec  Jan ’12  Apr

Agree:       38%    38%    37%   39%  37%  33%  34%  33%  34%  27%   34%  29%

Disagree:   41%    43%    46%   43%   44%  45%  48%  46%  47%  52%   43%  50%

Net score:   -3       -5       -9       -4       -7      -12    -14    -13    -13    -25     -9     -21

Of Conservative voters, 75% think that David Cameron is turning out to be good in his role, compared with 41% of Labour voters who say the same about Ed Miliband and 56% of Lib Dem voters of Nick Clegg.

Ed Miliband is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party

_________Dec ’10  Jan ’11  Apr  May  June  July  Aug  Sept  Oct  Dec  Jan ’12  Apr

Agree:       17%   22%   24%   22%   18%    27%   24%   20%  22%   20%   18%   18%

Disagree:   32%   35%   38%   39%   45%   41%    44%   44%  50%   52%    53%  49%

Net score:  -15     -13     -14    -17      -23    -14    -20     -24     -28    -32     -35      -31

Nick Clegg is turning out to be a good leader of the Liberal Democrats

_________Dec ’10  Jan ’11  Apr  May  June  July  Aug  Sept  Oct  Dec  Jan ’12  Apr

Agree:         26%    28%    24%   21%    20%    22%    22%   20%   24%   18%   22%   22%

Disagree:   49%    49%    55%   56%    57%   53%    55%   53%   55%    61%   54%   52%

Net score:  -23    -21     -31     -35     -37     -31     -33     -33     -31     -43     -32      -30

Economic trust trackers

I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy

_____________ Aug ’11 Mar ’12 Apr

Agree:                           31% 29% 25%

Disagree:                     48% 49% 54%

Net score:                  -9    -20   -29

I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy

_____________Aug ’11 Mar ’12 Apr

Agree:                          18%  15%  19%

Disagree:                     54%  59% 52%

Net score:                   -36   -44   -33

The net rating for the Conservative team is almost as poor now as that of Labour’s team.

Omnishambles?

Despite recent criticisms of the Budget and of last week’s “panic at the pumps”, the coalition government scores better for competence than the Labour government.

The current coalition government is more competent than the last Labour government

Agree:              35%

Disagree:          45%

The last Labour government was more competent than the current coalition government

Agree:              30%

Disagree:          48%

(ComRes tested both statements because those who disagree include those who think there is no difference between the two governments.)

The Budget

The decisions in the Budget last month were generally fair

Agree:              27%

Disagree:          54%

Conservative voters are the most likely to agree (63%) that it was fair, while just 29% of Lib Dem voters agree. Only 12% of Labour voters agree. Most worrying for the Conservatives especially is that while many younger people said they “didn’t know” whether the Budget decisions were fair or not, it is older voters in particular who tend most to disagree with this statement.  This supports the view that the ‘granny tax’ has caused damage to the Conservatives.

Capping tax relief on large donations to charity by wealthy individuals does not seem like the actions of a Government that believes in the Big Society

Agree:              50%

Disagree:          17%

Don’t know:      32%

Capping tax relief on large donations to charity by wealthy individuals means that ordinary taxpayers end up subsidising charities chosen by rich people

Agree:              43%

Disagree:          21%

Don’t know:      36%

A Labour government under Ed Miliband would be better at protecting people’s jobs

_____________ Jan ’11 Apr

Agree:                         30% 28%

Disagree:                     38% 40%

Men (31%) are more likely than women (25%) to agree.

I believe that George Osborne, the Chancellor, is “on my side” in dealing with the country’s economic problems

______________Mar ’11 Apr

Agree:                         23% 20%

Disagree:                     50% 54%

When Ed Miliband, the Labour leader, talks about the “squeezed middle” he is talking about people like me and my family

______________Mar ’11  Apr

Agree:                         48% 50%

Disagree:                     28% 25%

Responses are similar across the age groups, social grades and regions of the country.

Political reform

No individual, company or trade union should be allowed to give a political party more than £5,000 a year

Agree:              56%

Disagree:          19%

Don’t know:      25%

Ed Miliband’s proposal has consistent support across voters for the three main parties – 59% of Conservative voters, 55% of Labour voters, and 59% of Lib Dem voters agree.

City mayors create an unnecessary and expensive layer of local government

Agree:              56%

Disagree:          18%

Don’t know:      26%

Lowest agreement for this was found in London, where 34% agree compared with 56% in Wales and the South West, 59% in the Midlands, 62% in the North England and 65% in Scotland. The high level of agreement does not bode well for the 10 mayoral referendums across the country on 3 May

Happiness

The Government ought to try to increase happiness, or general well-being, rather than just national income and wealth

Agree:              59%

Disagree:          20%

Don’t know:      22%

Although David Cameron has spoken about ‘general well-being’, it is Labour voters who particularly agree (70%); 57% of Lib Dem voters, and 51% of Conservative voters agree.

Methodology note: ComRes interviewed 2,048 GB adults online on 18 and 19 April 2012. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults and by past vote recall. Full tables at ComRes.

Conservative Local Election Broadcast

Conservatives Launch Clean Campaign Pledge

Reading Conservatives are promoting a clean campaign pledge which has been signed by the Liberal Democrat and Green Groups on Reading Borough Council. Independent candidate in Whitley ward, Jamie Wake, has also added his support.

Following suggestions that Labour has used “dog whistle” tactics in its Church ward campaign all parties are being encouraged to sign up to a pledge of clean campaigning.

The Clean Campaign Pledge states:

We, the undersigned, pledge in the Reading Borough local election campaign:

· To show by our actions that politics can be a clean and positive activity, engaged in genuinely for the good of all.

· To tell the truth about what we have achieved and stand for and, and about what others have achieved and stand for.

· To refrain from making personal attacks against, or misleading statements about, other candidates in written literature or verbally.

· Not to mislead the public about who is doing well and about who is likely to win in these elections.

· To make only honest and reasonable promises.

· To fight a clean, positive and honest campaign around the issues that concern the people of Reading

· In particular, to be honest about public spending, and not to scaremonger in ways that may frighten the most vulnerable members of our society, such as children and elderly people.

· To take money only from organisations and individuals whose motives in giving us money we do not have reason to suspect.

Conservative Leader Cllr Tim Harris said, “It is important that all parties conduct a fair and honest campaign which conforms to the standards of decency expected by the people of Reading. There should be no place for racism or homophobia and parties should not scaremonger amongst the vulnerable.”

Lib Dem Leader Cllr Daisy Benson said, “I’m very happy to sign this pledge – I did the same in 2010 and I know from talking to residents in Reading they really appreciated the positive campaign we ran. Political parties should campaign on issues, ideas and their record at election time. They should not resort to making personal attacks on candidates to win votes or do things that could undermine public confidence in the political process.”