New ICM Poll – Labour Lead Melts Away as Lib Dems Recover
There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian today showing Labour’s lead being cut back to just 5% as the Lib Dems rise. UKIP is a poor fourth place:
Conservative 33% (up 1%)
Labour 38% (down 2%)
Lib Dem 15% (up 2%)
UKIP 6% (down 1%)
Conservatives are one point ahead of Labour among men, by 36% to 35%, but among women are 16 points behind, 29% to 45%. Conservatives will be pleased at their strong showing among older voters aged over 65, who are the most likely to turn out to vote. Among this group, the Conservatives lead Labour by 39% to 30%.
This poll supports the findings of yesterday’s YouGov poll in that UKIP are well behind the Lib Dems after their brief surge at the end of last year, and more importantly Labour’s lead is very fragile and vulnerable to a Conservative and/or Lib Dem revival.
The ICM poll is always keenly awaited by those interested in opinion polls. As my article this morning indicated, ICM is considered the ”Gold Standard” amongst polling aficionados.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,001 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 18-21 January 2013. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.