New ICM Poll – Labour Lead Melts Away as Lib Dems Recover
There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian today showing Labour’s lead being cut back to just 5% as the Lib Dems rise. UKIP is a poor fourth place:
Conservative 33% (up 1%)
Labour 38% (down 2%)
Lib Dem 15% (up 2%)
UKIP 6% (down 1%)
Conservatives are one point ahead of Labour among men, by 36% to 35%, but among women are 16 points behind, 29% to 45%. Conservatives will be pleased at their strong showing among older voters aged over 65, who are the most likely to turn out to vote. Among this group, the Conservatives lead Labour by 39% to 30%.
This poll supports the findings of yesterday’s YouGov poll in that UKIP are well behind the Lib Dems after their brief surge at the end of last year, and more importantly Labour’s lead is very fragile and vulnerable to a Conservative and/or Lib Dem revival.
The ICM poll is always keenly awaited by those interested in opinion polls. As my article this morning indicated, ICM is considered the ”Gold Standard” amongst polling aficionados.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,001 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 18-21 January 2013. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.
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About Richard…
Richard is a Conservative Councillor on Reading Borough Council representing Peppard ward since 2007, having been re-elected in May 2011. He previously represented Thames ward from 2001 to 2004. He is currently the Conservative Shadow Cabinet Member for Strategic Planning and Transport on Reading Borough Council. 
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With Ed the Inept leading them, and with his pro-EU stance I am not surprised that Labour’s lead is trending down. I AM however surprised that the Lib-Dems are regaining their third place and I am saddened to read this as they are the party I detest the most. I can only think that there voting against the Tories in the Lords has pleased some of the real Liberals who had gone to Labour whilst your party has won 1% back from UKIP. I will be interested to see where the other Polls show UKIP and if Labour’s lead is also dropping with them.
Steve – I agree with your analysis. ICM and YouGov are the best of the pollsters but as always, we need to see several polls before being certain of a trend.
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