Huhne Dares But Doesn’t Win!
Today came the news which was as shocking as it was unsurprising; that senior Lib Dem MP and millionaire Chris Huhne had been lying for the last year or so following his resignation from the Cabinet. When Huhne resigned from government over allegations that he had coerced his former wife to take speeding points for him in 2003, he vehemently denied the accusations and declared that any Jury would clear him when they heard the evidence. On 3 February 2012 after being charged and resigning from the Cabinet as Energy Secretary Huhne said “I am innocent of the charges. I am going to fight this in the courts and I am confident a jury will agree.” He appears to have gambled on being able to get the charges dropped and the fact that as he once said “99% of offences don’t lead to a conviction”.
He continued to protest his innocence right up until sometime yesterday when he reportedly telephoned Nick Clegg to inform him of his intention to change his plea in court to “guilty”. Reports today have also stated that he twice sought to have the case dismissed on technicalities and only when this failed he decided to stop lying and admit his guilt. Also released today were texts between him and his son Peter who pleaded for his father to come clean and stop blaming the offence on his mother. Chris Huhne eventually plead guilty to perverting the course of justice, a serious offence which can attract a maximum sentence of Life Imprisonment. The Judge today indicated that following his guilty plea Huhne faces a prison sentence, but it is more likely to be 6-12 months.
Huhne is one of the few “big beasts” in the Liberal Democrats. In 2007 he contested the Lib Dem leadership for the second time and would have been the winner had the postal strike not delayed the arrival of several hundred ballots which arrived after the deadline. Nick Clegg won the contest by just 500 votes and many Lib Dems must today be thanking their lucky stars! When the Coalition was formed Huhne was one of the five Lib Dems to enter the Cabinet but he quickly made himself unpopular with many of his coalition colleague and (I am told) many of his civil servant, due to his imperious manner and brusque approach. Many who formerly worked with and for him would have been struggling to suppress a cheer when the news broke today.
The Eastleigh Parliamentary seat which Huhne has represented since 2005 is a marginal between the Lib Dems and Conservatives. The Lib Dems have built a formidable position in what was previously a Conservative voting area. The Lib Dems run the local Council and hold every single Council seat in the Eastleigh constituency. Whilst the Lib Dem national polling rating has plumetted since 2010 their ability to hold on in areas which they control locally cannot be underestimated. It is impossible to quantify what damage will have been done to their local reputation by the revelations that Huhne is not only a cad but also a liar. However, they must start the by-election campaign as marginal favourites to hold the seat.
The Conservatives have an incumbent Parliamentary Spokesperson in Maria Hutchings who fought the seat in 2010 and who is well regarded locally. She lives in the heart of the constituency and I understand she will be our candidate in the by-election. Conservative Campaign HQ are going to fight hard to overturn the Lib Dem majority and major resources will be diverted to win the seat.
Huhne (Lib Dem) – 24,966 (46.5%)
Hutchings (Cons) – 21,102 (39.3%)
Barraclough (Lab) – 5,153 (9.6%)
Finch (UKIP) – 1,933 (3.6%)
Pewsey (Eng Dem) – 249 (0.5%)
Stone (Ind) – 154 (0.3%)
Lowe (Nat Dem) – 93 (0.2%)
At the 2010 election Labour’s support collapsed by 11.5% while the Lib Dems rose by 8.2%. If most of this support reverts back to Labour the Lib Dems will be in trouble.
While we await the sentence to be passed on Chris Huhne watch the clips below which take on a new perspective:
12 Comments »
Leave a Reply
About Richard…
Richard is a Conservative Councillor on Reading Borough Council representing Peppard ward since 2007, having been re-elected in May 2011. He previously represented Thames ward from 2001 to 2004. He is currently the Conservative Shadow Cabinet Member for Strategic Planning and Transport on Reading Borough Council. 
Recent Comments
Peter smith on New YouGov Poll – UKIP F… Richard Willis on New ComRes Poll – Labour… Howard Thomas on New ComRes Poll – Labour… Emanuel Medina on Reflections on the Electi… Wilford Goodman on UKIP’s Racist and Crimin…
This could be a very ironic by-election. UKIP intervention could actually help their sworn enemies the Lib-Dems to hold the seat by taking sufficient votes from the Conservatives. I may go down there and do some campaigning.
That would, in the longer term be a great result for Conservatives. If UKIP supportors see how counter-productive voting for UKIP really is, then many will surely move their support, in the General Election, back to Conservatives –
the only party that can actually deliver a strong policy in Europe. The only party that will deliver a referendum. Until Labour change policy on this that is!
UKIP supporters, who moved to it as they are browned off by Cameron and his type of Toryism are not likely to return to his party but will rejoice in seeing him miss a gain which otherwise would have been in the bag owing to UKIP intervention taking Tory votes, and those “Kippers” who are on the fundamentalist wing of that party to whom getting out of the EU pushes all other issues off of the table will remain loyal to Nigel Farage and his party. I feel John Walker that your are indulging in wishful thinking.
Like it or not UKIP is changing from being “The Tory party in Exile” to being seen as a party in its own right which people will support on its own policies and merits.
This will be the most interesting by-election for many years.
Yes Steve Foley I agree with you that it will be a very interesting by-election. I also agree that many (but by no means all) Ukippers will rejoice in seeing DC miss a gain in this by-election. However I credit them with more sense that you seem to. UKippers are a pragmatic bunch by and large. Many (who knows how many) will certainly see the irony of a “faithful” UKIP vote helping to return a Labour government. These voters will not want to miss the opportunity for a referendum and will move back to a Tory vote, if only for the General Election.
A Lab government is highly unlikely to see us leaving Europe, even if they – which I feel is likely – do a U turn on Ed Milliband’s current policy and agree to a referendum on Europe.
The Conservatives have the right policy on Europe – it is also a popular position; Right and Popular – that’s a strong position to be in.
I will wait till the actual result from Eastleigh comes in. I don’t think you realise just how hated David Cameron is to a variety of people, even more so than Thatcher was in some areas and sections of the population, and he could well be a detriment rather than an advantage in this contest.
As for UKIP, its weakness is also its very raison d’etre as although it has a whole manifesto of polices on all the usual issues, Law and Order, Defence, Immigration, Education, Traditional Family Values etc, these are eclipsed by its obsession with the EU (Getting out thereof) which whether they like it or not doesn’t seem to be the Issue of All Issues with the man and woman in the street. UKIP’s Economic and Employment Polices are also a bit too close to those of the current Conservative-led Government to appeal to many people as if they want those they may as well vote Tory.
In a way UKIP is in the same position as the SNP was for a long time. They were perceived as a single issue party = Independence for Scotland, as is UKIP = “Get us out of the EU” . the SNP learned its lesson, and whilst not of course dropping Scottish Independence they broadened their appeal and this paid off in 2011 when they became the Government of Scotland at Holyrood with an overall majority under an Electoral System which makes that very difficult to achieve. Whilst of course maintaining their key policy of UK withdrawal from the EU, UKIP should de-emphasise this and instead give more “marketing” to their other policies. I also feel that have made a serious tactical error in not fielding Nigel Farage as their candidate in Eastleigh.
Steve – ALL polling shows that David Cameron is an asset to the Conservative Party with the public rating him well ahead of other party leaders by some way. However, as this is a single seat by-election I expect my party to stresss the local candidate and her track record of fighting for local people. In 2010 she didn’t lose by a much against a well known high profile sitting Lib Dem MP. Yes it is mid-term but I think we have a fighting chance of winning this seat from the Lib Dems. Certainly today I didn’t find any enthusiasm for the Lib Dems in Eastleigh. I think only the Conservatives have so far selected a candidate and there are only 2.5 weeks to go until the election!
Well you wound say that wouldn’t you. Believe me, as one who listens to ordinary people outside of the Pale Blue Tent of the Political Village, Cameron, and even more so Osborne and especially Iain Duncan-Smith are loathed by many people myself included. Some feel thus as they have suffered loss of employment, cuts in the Benefits they have contributed to when working, subjected to an ATOS examination with all the adverse effects of same etc and may even have become victims of the new and nasty Bedroom Tax, Other who detest Cameron and Co will be Traditionalist Tories who deplore his Socially and Morally Liberal polices such as same-sex “Marriage” and want to see him fail. Perhaps like myself they never get asked to fill out an Opinion Poll?
I feel that this by-election will be very close to call. and can’t even think of a favourite at this stage.
Labour, even with a sustaining 7% or so lead in their favour in the Country at large and the voters who deserted them for Huhne in 2010 reverting to type, are exceedingly unlikely to cause a sensation by gaining this seat as even in their 1997 landslide Labour came third. Even with the Alstom Railway Works I feel there are simply insufficient potential Labour voters in this constituency.
Will the Tories win it? It’s possible although the last time a Government won a by-election from another party was Mitcham in 1982 during the Falklands War but UKIP intervention could well take sufficient votes from them for the Lib-Dem to hold on.
UKIP? I’d be delighted to see them take this seat but unless there is great movement in the electorate and a wish to punish the three main parties I honestly cannot see this happening and I again have to say that it is a tactical blunder for them not to field Nigel Farage . Their part will be the effect of their intervention..
Finally the incumbent Lib-Dems. If they manage to keep the ghost of Huhne at bay and have a good Local Councillor or a similar type of candidate they could hold on narrowly.
Whatever one’s personal opinions, for anyone into Psephology this will be the most interesting by-election for a long time. I DO wonder why the writ was moved so quickly and the length of the campaign till Polling Day on 28 Feb is so short? No doubt just a coincidence I’m sure.
Oh Steve! Get a fooking life!
I THAT the best answer that one of Cameron’s stalwart supporters can come up with? Oh dear!
If anyone needs to “Get a life” it is YOU!
Leave to one side those who are fellow Tories and speak to and listen to ordinary people. The guy losing his job as his employer reduces the headcount and who will need to find another source of income to support himself and his family, not the easiest task in the current economic situation. The pensioner who saved for retirement but has her fixed income adversely affected by the policy of Quantitative Easing, and who, if some of your MPs have their way, could lose her Free Bus Pass, TV Licence if over 75, and Winter Heating Allowance.. I have already mentioned the ill-treatment of the Disabled and Chronically Sick, and these cannot all be liars or Labour Party stooges. Outside of your pale blue comfort zone you won’t find many who actually like Cameron and Co, anything but!
Unless there is an electoral earthquake Labour cannot win in Eastleigh, and I seriously doubt, that for all their drive and enthusiasm UKIP will take the seat. I have no time for the Lib-Dems, indeed I detest any form of “liberalism” be it Social or Economic, but if I had to make a choice I’d rather they held this seat than the Cameron Conservatives gained it.
In its own way this by-election could be as interesting as was that in Hull North in Jan 1966. A better than expected result for Labour led Harold Wilson to call a General Election at then end of March of that year and to win a majority of 96. Oh I forgot, Cameron very stupidly gave away the right of a PM to seek the Dissolution of Parliament and call a General Election so even if Eastleigh were to go Tory by a large margin Cameron cannot capitalise on such a favourable outcome for him and his party.
I await the result on 28th February with great interest.
You beat me to it Steve. I was just about to pen my apology to you for my post. I apologise. I wrote it at the wrong end of a long day.
We have all been tired when we have posted on the internet. No offence and I accept your apology.
It will be interesting to see how this pans out
Best wishes
Steve Foley
Sent from my BlackBerry® wireless device
As for your most recent post Steve, I doubt if you would vote for any Tory, Cameron’s or otherwise. Your list of policies shows a highly slanted view against conservative policies. In fact any policy that might save some taxpayers’ money. It is easy to criticise any such pollicy. However we do need to reduce public spending, of that everyone agrees. Very difficult choices have to be made. Responsible opposition needs to accept that, or simply play to the gallery with promises that will not be honoured.
You mention pensions being harmed by QE. I agree with you, it is not good. Remember though that QE. is only needed in response to the shocking state of our public finances, which was Labours doing as were the first rounds of QE. Remember too Gordon Brown’s raid on private pensions in the late 90′s to the tune of £5 Billion a year I seem to recall. A very bad day for pensioners. Gordon Brown’s government did nothing to encourage personal financial responsibilty. Spend now and someone else can pick up the pieces tomorrow. That means our children. As Labour woudl have it our children will have to pay for our cosy living today. Our failure to grapple with genuine reform. Incidentally, the “bedroom tax”, as I am confident that you will know, is not a tax it is a benefit.
I am bemused by your comment about the PM stupidly giving away the right to dissolve parliament. Quite incredible that you criticise Cameron for giving away a power and an advantage of the governing party. Whilst this was more to do with ensuring that the coalition held together, it was nevertheless a power given up by a politician which increases fairness, something to be appauded I say.
Alas we will not agree on these things and we have moved away from the core issue. I think we can agree that the by-election will be very interesting.