There is a new poll from Populus reported for tomorrow’s Times which shows an essentially unchanged picture from last month:

            Conservative              39% (down 1%)

            Labour                       29% (down 1%) 

            Lib Dem                      18% (no change)

UKIP are on 4% and the BNP 2%. The changes are within the margin of error from the last Populus poll.

The United Kingdom Independence Party has had its fair share of trouble with its elected representatives. However, despite this, it likes to pose as an anti-establishment party untainted by the Parliamentary expenses scandal and similar ails that have afflicted Westminster politicians. It is therefore very damaging for them that former UKIP MEP for the East of England, Tom Wise, has admitted fiddling his expenses and swindling the tax-payers out of £36,000. Wise claimed £3,000 per month in secretarial allowances but pocketed £2,500 of that while paying his secretary just £500 per month. He now faces a jail sentence of up to seven years.

Following the revelations about Wise, the Sunday Times has reported that the EU anti-fraud investigator “Olaf” has launched a wider investigation into UKIP’s use of MEP expenses. Internet speculation has suggested that former UKIP leader Nigel Farage is one of five MEPs that are under investigation by “Olaf”. That could terminally damage his attempt to stand against Commons Speaker John Bercow as an “anti-sleaze” candidate.

Both of the above cases come after the Electoral Commission won a case in the Court of Appeal that may lead to near bankruptcy for UKIP if they have to repay £350,000 in illegal donations. It also occurs at a time when the party has no leader and is about to enter a leadership contest. UKIP surprised many people (including me) with its success in the June Euro elections. It now faces a series of much sterner tests and the timing could hardly be worse for the party.

There is a new poll from TNS-BMRB reported for the Scottish Herald which shows Labour pulling well ahead of the SNP on Westminster voting intentions:

            Labour                       39% (up 3%)

            SNP                            25% (down 7%)

            Conservative              18% (down 1%)

            Lib Dem                      12% (up 3%)

With current UK-wide polls suggesting a sizeable Conservative majority at Westminster this poll indicates that Labour face near wipe-out in England and Wales if their vote is holding up well in Scotland. This morning’s Jackie Ashley column in the Guardian has a leak of Labour’s private polling which shows that they could be reduced to just 120 seats at the next General Election. This would be a catastrophe for Labour of monumental proportions, far, far worse than the defeat suffered by the Conservatives in 1997.

Today is Remembrance Sunday and our thoughts turn to those who gave their lives for freedom and democracy in two World Wars. I am occasionally shocked at how little some people know about the two wars, as they gradually recede out of memory and into the pages of the history books.

When I was at school history stopped at 1914 but nowadays most school children study the Second World War. However, too many seem to leave school with no understanding of the causes, events or sacrifices of either World War.

Remembrance Sunday is more than about the two World Wars. It has also become in recent years a chance to remember those who have given their lives in the more recent conflicts such as the Falklands War, as well as Gulf Wars 1 and 2, and now of course Afghanistan. As the death toll mounts, so does the list of grieving families and the injured. It is the latter that are so often forgotten by the media and the politicians. As a rough estimate, for every one death, three are injured. They bear the scars in their bodies and minds for the rest of their lives.

Whilst the memory of the two Worlds Wars may be fading, for many people therefore Remembrance Sunday has a new and very fresh meaning to them. On this Remembrance Sunday let us remember all those who have died in the course of serving this country in armed conflict but also those who have been injured and maimed in the course of their duty.

This country and others owes them a huge debt of gratitude.

There is a new poll from Angus Reid Strategies reported for PoliticalBetting.com  which shows a reduced Conservative lead of 14%:

            Conservative              38% (down 2%)

            Labour                       24% (up 1%) 

            Lib Dem                     20% (no change)

The minor parties are: UKIP 6% (up 1%); BNP 4% (up 1%); Green 3% (nc); SNP/PC 4% (down 1%).

The changes are within the margin of error from the last poll but it would be foolish to read too much into these findings until Angus Reid’s credentials are more established as a UK pollster.

Readers may enjoy these photos of the Battle of Britain Memorial Flight Spitfire I took on Wednesday:

There is a new poll from YouGov reported for Channel 4 which shows a slightly increased Conservative lead of 14%:

            Conservative              41% (no change)

            Labour                       27% (down 1%) 

            Lib Dem                      17% (up 1%)

The changes are within the margin of error from the last YouGov poll.

The first RAF Merlin helicopter crews are ready to deploy to Afghanistan following pre-deployment training in the United States. The Merlins, from RAF Benson in Oxfordshire, will deploy soon and will provide vital support to ground operations and increase the capacity of UK helicopter lift in Afghanistan by a further 25 per cent.

El Centro Naval Base in California is the US Navy’s main training base and has played host to crews from 28 and 78 Squadrons. They have been training for the unique challenges of the Afghan environment: the hot, high and dusty conditions.

The entire fleet is undergoing a £45M upgrade programme that will allow the helicopters to improve performance in the harsh conditions and protect against threats. Modifications include new rotor blades for ‘hot & high’ conditions and improved defensive aids against hostile threats.

Merlins can carry up to 20 personnel and will provide an additional capability to the Chinook and Lynx. Personnel from 78 Squadron are already in Afghanistan preparing for the arrival of the first helicopters, which are due by the end of the year.

The following press release was issued by the Conservative Party today in response to the signing into law of the Lisbon Treaty. I have reproduced it verbatim:

The Lisbon Treaty has now been signed by President Klaus and will shortly become part of EU law, entering force on 1 December.  This is a situation which has been brought about by the Labour Party (aided by the Lib Dems), who could have instigated a referendum at any time prior to the Treaty’s ratification. Given this situation, the Conservatives have today announced a series of measures, which are summarised below and for which we will seek a mandate at a General Election. 

The measures are essentially in three areas.

One: ‘Never Again’ unilateral measures which we can take ourselves

An Irish style ‘referendum lock’ on any treaty handing over further powers from Britain to the EU.  We will amend the 1972 European Communities Act so that any future Treaty which transfers competences (powers) from Britain to the EU would have to be subject to a referendum, as is already effectively the case in Ireland. We will campaign on challenging our opponents to confirm that they will never seek to overturn this.

Similarly, a legal lock ensuring a referendum if any British Government tried to take Britain into the Euro.  We are pledged never to take Britain into the Euro but, to prevent any future British Government from trying to do so without a referendum we will also amend the 1972 Act at the same time to provide a similar safeguard.

A United Kingdom Sovereignty Bill, to ensure the ultimate sovereignty of the UK Parliament.  Unlike many other European countries Britain does not have a written constitution.  Given the increasing amount of EU law with which we have to deal we would amend the law to insert a sovereignty clause, to make it explicit that ultimately Britain’s Parliament is sovereign and cannot be overruled by the EU against its will.  This is similar in principle to the situation in Germany whereby the German constitution (the basic Law) is ultimately supreme. This would not mean striking down individual items of EU legislation but would provide ultimate constitutional safeguards against any attempts by EU judges to erode our sovereignty.

Full Parliamentary control over the self-amending or ‘ratchet’ clauses in the Lisbon Treaty:  The Lisbon Treaty contains a number of ratchet clauses (sometimes called ‘passerelles’) whereby the powers of the EU could be expanded in the future without a new treaty.  These clauses require all EU nations to agree, so we retain a national veto on their use.  We do not believe that any of these ratchet clauses should be used to increase the EU’s powers but, as a safeguard, we would change the law so that using any passerelle would require a British Government to pass an Act of Parliament (rather than a simple motion and a 90 minute debate, as currently proposed under Labour). 

These measures can be brought in unilaterally by an incoming Conservative   Government without the need to seek approval from our European partners.

Two:  ‘British Guarantees’ on the operation of Lisbon and social and employment legislation, which require negotiation with our EU partners

We will use the forthcoming General Election deliberately to seek a mandate to negotiate ‘British guarantees’ on the application of the Lisbon Treaty and on seeking to restore key powers to Britain. These would include:

A full opt-out from the Charter of Fundamental Rights (CFR).   Tony Blair told us that he had obtained an opt out from the CFR but he did not.  As Ministers have subsequently admitted he only obtained a ‘clarification’ as to how it would apply.  We want to upgrade this to a full opt out so that the CFR, which for instance would interfere with our trade union legislation, cannot be made to apply in Britain.

Greater protection against EU encroachment into the UK’s criminal justice system.   Lisbon provides us with an ‘opt in’ over criminal justice matters but we want broader protection provided by an additional protocol. This would protect against EU judges extending their control over our criminal justice system and we  also want to ensure that only British authorities can initiate criminal investigations in Britain.   

Restoration of control over social and employment legislation.  Lastly, we want to restore national control over those parts of social and employment legislation which have proved most damaging to the British economy.  For instance we would seek guarantees over the application of the Working Time Directive in our public services such as the fire service and the NHS.

We will establish a European Policy Committee of the Shadow Cabinet, chaired by William Hague, to work on the detail of these proposals.  

We will seek to give these measures legal effect by adding them to a future accession Treaty.  This is the same mechanism that will give effect to the ‘Irish guarantees’ and also the more recent ‘Czech guarantees’ and we would seek to mirror it for the above British guarantees too.   

Three:  The Longer Term

We will aim to implement these measures over the course of the next Parliament, and believe that they can stop Britain’s relationship with the EU from heading in the wrong direction. But if, over the lifetime of this Parliament, we do not succeed in negotiating the return of these powers; or if in fact the EU does move in the wrong direction, in those circumstances, then of course we can return to this subject in a manifesto for the Parliament after that. This is not something we want to happen. Nor is it something we expect to happen. But if those circumstances were to occur, we would not rule out a referendum on a wider package of guarantees to protect our democratic decision-making, while remaining a member of the European Union. However, that would be a judgement for the future, not for this election or for the next Parliament.

In summary:  A Conservative Government will never allow us to become part of a federal Europe and we have devised a series of specific measures which protect Britain from this happening in future.  We will seek a mandate from the British people to implement these measures at the forthcoming General Election.

You can find out more here.

There is a new poll from YouGov reported for the Telegraph which shows a constant Conservative lead of 13%:

            Conservative              41% (up 1%)

            Labour                       28% (up 1%) 

            Lib Dem                      16% (down 3%)

The Lib Dems will be concerned to see a 3% drop to 16% in this poll but we should see what other pollsters find before jumping to firm conclusions. The polls seem to be broadly consistent at the moment with Conservatives at 40-45%, Labour at 25-30% and the Lib Dems at 16-21%.