New TNS-BMRB Poll – Tory Lead Increases to 8%
There is a new poll from Scottish pollster TNS-BMRB published tonight. According to Political Betting there was a poll last week from this pollster with a 5% Conservative lead, meaning that this is a big increase in the lead to 8% tonight;
Conservative 39% (up 3%)
Labour 31% (no change)
Lib Dem 19% (down 1%)
Michelle Harrison CEO of TNS-BMRB comments: “Only half (51%) of all voters are certain about who they will vote for this election. One of the most interesting patterns we are seeing however is that Tory voters are likely to remain the most loyal. A massive 77% of their 2005 voters say they will vote for them again this election, compared to only 56% of those who voted Labour. If you look back even further, only 43% of people who voted Labour in 1997 say they will do so again this election, compared to 71% of those who voted for the Conservative party.
“Labour’s lower retention scores demonstrate the breakdown of Tony Blair’s huge electoral coalition in 1997. It is possible that many no longer understand what Labour’s values are. This combined with strongly ‘loyal’ Conservative voters, and a large amount of people undecided, means Labour needs to come from behind to re-engage with their voters.”
Some more highlights from TNS’s findings:
- Younger voters are more likely than older voters to change their minds. Only a little over four in ten (42%) of those aged under 45 is certain about their choice. This compares to 54% of 45-64 year olds and 59% of those aged 65+.
- The LibDems look to be the most likely beneficiaries of any last minute switches. More than a third of both Labour and Tory voters have the LibDems as second choice (40% and 36% respectively) and this is gradually increasing.
- Likely LibDem voters are much more likely to select Labour than the Tories as a second choice (35% compared to 20%) with the number choosing Conservatives as their second choice decreasing.
- Two thirds (63%) of voters will be voting the same way as 2005 with the rest evenly divided between those voting for a different party (18%), and those who did not vote in 2005 (19%).
- Perhaps the most interesting voters are those making the big switch from Labour to Conservative. One in ten (11%) 2005 Labour voters are in this camp. The younger and more prosperous end of Labour’s 2005 support is more likely to make this switch than the older, lower income end.
TNS-BMRB interviewed a representative sample of 1,973 GB adults aged 18+ between 25/2/10 and 3/3/10. All interviews were conducted in respondents’ homes, although the voting intention data was collected using self-completion methods. The data is weighted twice, firstly to match population totals for age, sex, social grade, working status, presence of children, 2005 voting patterns and region, and secondly, for voting intention questions only, an additional ‘likelihood-to-vote’ weight has been applied.