Richard Willis's Blog

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New Com Res Poll – Tory Surge to 9% Lead

There is a new poll from Communicate Research reported tonight for tomorrow’s Independent and ITV which shows the Lib Dems falling back further as the Conservatives surge to a 9% lead:

             Conservative             35% (up 3%)

                                       Lib Dem                    26% (down 2%) 

                                       Labour                      26% (down 2%)

This is the biggest Conservative lead in a ComRes poll since March and suggests that the Lib Dem bounce is deflating. We will need to see more polls to confirm this but Conservatives will be very happy with this poll. A very good source tells me that the most recent numbers for this rolling poll are even better than those above.

Lib Dems were very active on Twitter earlier this evening suggesting that they had the 35% and the Conservatives were on 26%. Their spin operation now looks very silly!

UPDATE: I have spoken to ComRes this morning (21 April) after seeing claims posted by Lib Dem activists that this poll is less reliable than others as it has a margin of error of +/-4.5%. ComRes assured me that this is completely untrue and their polls are within the standard +/-2% margin of error.

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April 20, 2010 - Posted by | Polls

7 Comments »

  1. Comres is a tracker a rolly polly with 500 sampled each day . Surprising you are quoting the results of this as I recall you saying you don’t like trackers . Last night’s Yougov whuch is not a tracker poll and with later fieldwork does not get a mention – strange – cannot be because it had LibDems 3% in the lead .

    Comment by Mark Senior | April 21, 2010 | Reply

    • Mark – I thought that might get you wobbling!! 🙂 Having spoken to ComRes I am very happy with their methodology. The same cannot be said for YouGov at the moment. As you keep misrepresenting me, I will remind you of what I have said several times; I do not NORMALLY report daily polls but where they are noteworthy I will. I didn’t notice you whinging when I reported a poll showing the Lib Dems doing well!! So are you dismissing the ComRes poll? I think we should be told.

      Comment by Richard Willis | April 21, 2010 | Reply

      • I have not criticised the Comres methodology , it is a tracker poll with daily samples of 500 hence a higher 4.5% MofE to the other polls 3% . When you have 4 polls published on one day ( 2 with later fieldwork ) then it is clearly best to treat the outlier ( in this case Comres ) with the most caution . It is clearly even more blimkered not to publish the results of one of them at all when it shows the result you like the least .

        Comment by Mark Senior | April 21, 2010

      • What you should do then Mark is set up your own blog. Then you can publish what you like!

        In my commentary on each of the last two ComRes polls I did sound the note of caution that we needed to see more polls to be sure that the Lib Dem surge was beginning to fade. However, I remain of the view that a Conservative majority is the most likely outcome and the current polls are being misinterpreted using UNS at present. ComRes is currently closest to what I perceive to be the true position. We will see if my feeling is correct in due course!

        Comment by Richard Willis | April 21, 2010

      • Of course we are all free to interpret the polls as we prefer them to be , however not reproducing the results of the one you like least is more than a touch of head in the sand behaviour . If you still think a Conservative majority is most likely there is plenty of money to be made , NOM is odds on now with all betting mediums .

        Comment by Mark Senior | April 21, 2010

      • Mark – It is not true that the ComRes polls has a Margin of Error (MoE) of 4.5%. I have spoken to ComrRes this morning and they have advised that these polls have an MoE of 2%. I put your suggestion that the MoE is 4.5% and they categorically rejected that.

        Comment by Richard Willis | April 21, 2010

      • Sorry Richard that is rubbish , a poll of 1,000 has a MofE of 3% , to get a MofE of 2% the sample size would have to be circa 2,500 , combining two sub polls of 500 into 1 poll of 1,000 does not make a 1,000 poll size MofE of 3.0 . I recommend The Use and Abuse of Statistics an old Penguin book but I have seen it available on Amazon .

        Comment by Mark Senior | April 21, 2010


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