Richard Willis's Blog

First for local news and first for comment

New Ipsos MORI Poll – Labour Take the Lead but Fail to Convince

There is a new Ipsos MORI/Reuters poll reported today showing Labour returning to the lead after last month the two parties were level on 40% each:

              Conservative              35% (down 5%)

                                                        Labour                       42% (up 2%)

                                                        Lib Dem                      10% (up 1%)

As I have observed before MORI tend to be more volatile than most other pollsters and the changes in this poll rather confirm my opinion.

Only one in three people (31%) agree that Labour is ready to form a government and even fewer believe Ed Miliband is ready to be Prime Minister (17%). Indeed, more than half of Labour supporters believe Miliband is not ready to be Prime Minister. In 1997, a month away from the General Election, over half of the public (55%) believed Labour was ready for government and a similar proportion (53%) believed Tony Blair was ready to be Prime Minister. A month before the 2010 General Election, half the public (51%) felt David Cameron was ready to be Prime Minister and 47% thought the Conservatives were ready to govern. This devastating finding for Labour has been picked up by Political Betting.com where the author Mike Smithson has observed that Miliband is less popular than William Hague or IDS at this stage of their leadership!

David Cameron remains the most highly rated party leader (44% of the public are satisfied with his performance), but around the same number are dissatisfied (47%). However, just three in ten (29%) people are satisfied with Nick Clegg’s performance as Deputy Prime Minister – and twice as many (61%) are dissatisfied. For the first time, satisfaction with Nick Clegg is lower than with the government. Satisfaction with Ed Miliband has fallen this month; a third are satisfied with Miliband (35%) but 43% are dissatisfied.

Last month I also made the following comment:

“Since Labour is usually well ahead of the Conservatives in Scotland and Wales, it suggests that they may be in for a disappointing night at the English local elections next month.” How true that was!

Ipsos MORI interviewed 1,008 adults aged 18+ between 20 and 28 May.

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May 26, 2011 - Posted by | Polls

3 Comments »

  1. It seems to me that Labour as a party are more popular with those answering the pollsters but their Leader Ed Miliband is NOT.

    I feel that the Opinion Polls are going off the target as you are correct that the local/ assembly elections were NOT good for Labour so actual votes are better for the Tories than the notional Opinion Poll results would indicate.

    In the end the irony may be that Ed Miliband is a vote winner….FOR THE CONSERVATIVES!

    Comment by steve foley | May 27, 2011 | Reply

  2. Richard – you’ve got to get out more – you are the only person that finds this information of interest.

    Comment by Gideon Mack | May 28, 2011 | Reply

    • Gideon – some people come to my blog just to keep track of the polls. If you are not interested you can always read something else! 🙂

      Comment by Richard Willis | May 28, 2011 | Reply


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