Richard Willis's Blog

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New YouGov Poll – Labour 4% Ahead

There is a new YouGov poll published in today’s Sunday Times newspaper showing Labour’s just 1% ahead of the Conservatives :

                Conservative 38% (up 1%)
               Labour 42% (up 1%)
                                                 Lib Dem 9% (down 1%)
The government’s approval rating is -27% (29% approve and 56% disapprove).
Changes shown are compared to the last daily YouGov poll.
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October 9, 2011 - Posted by | Polls

5 Comments »

  1. I’m very glad to see the Lib-Dems down to single figures again but the rise in the Labour lead would tend to suggest that Cameron is NOT enjoying a post-Conference bounce. It was to say the least a very flat, two dimensional and monochrome Conference except for Boris’ Speech and the “Catgate” affair, like a convention of Chartered Accountants rather than the Party of Government.

    Comment by Steve Foley | October 9, 2011 | Reply

  2. What do you think the divergent trend between YouGov and the other pollsters tells us?

    Comment by Oranjepan | October 9, 2011 | Reply

    • Oranjepan – it is certainly true that YouGov has diverged from other major pollsters, especially regarding the ratings for Labour and Lib Dems. As Mike Smithson has observed on Political Betting.com this leaves YouGov looking like the odd one out! When tested in last year’s elections ICM was one of the most accurate pollster and therefore until proven otherwise, it is my preferred pollster.

      Comment by Richard Willis | October 10, 2011 | Reply

      • Well, I have to say I agree with you and Mike S about the historical accuracy of the different pollsters to the last General Election, but it’s probably a bit early to extrapolate forwards to the next.

        Given YouGov’s 350,000 online panelists amount to only 1% of the total electorate from which the monthly phone pollsters take their surveys and are sampled about 30 times more regularly, then it’s clear to see where a statistical reinforcement may originate. Add this to the feedback effect of a daily poll ‘drowning-out’ competitors and there may also be an impact from the market.

        So maybe I can ask a follow-up – do you think the different polling methodology between the pollsters is driving the divergence in the polls? And if so, how should commentators compensate?

        Comment by Oranjepan | October 12, 2011

    • I have to say that of all the pollsters Yougov is the one I trust least.

      Comment by Steve Foley | October 10, 2011 | Reply


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