Richard Willis's Blog

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New ICM Poll – Tories Take a 2% Lead!

There is a new ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph showing the Conservatives overtaking Labour to take a lead of 2%:

            Conservative              38% (up 2%)

                                                  Labour                        36% (down 2%)

                                                  Lib Dem                      14% (no change)

This is quite a sensational poll which will send shockwaves through the Labour leadership. Whilst it is always possible that this is an outlier as Mike Smithson has observed on Political ICM is one of the most reliable and credible pollsters.


December 3, 2011 - Posted by | Polls


  1. Strange you didn’t headline yougov’s *% lead for Labour, its highest for some time, why?

    Comment by david | December 3, 2011 | Reply

    • david – at the time I posted this I hadnt seen the YouGov poll but as I have explained many times before I do not cover every YouGov poll as there are so many!

      Comment by Richard Willis | December 4, 2011 | Reply

  2. The fly in the ointment is that the dammed Lib-Dems are up to 14% according to this poll. I prefer to see them at half that figure if not even lower. However on Dec 15th there is a REAL Poll in Feltham and Heston, one that cannot be manipulated or “weighted” by the pollsters. It is almost certain that Labour will hold this seat with an increased majority in %age terns if not in number of votes too but who comes second will be of far greater interest. I see that the UKIP candidate was a former Conservative who stood for them in Edmonton in May 2010.

    Comment by Steve Foley | December 4, 2011 | Reply

    • Steve – yes it will be an interesting by-election!

      Comment by Richard Willis | December 4, 2011 | Reply

  3. Look at these, with acknowledgement to Conservative Home.

    Three polls overnight…

    ICM giving the Conservatives a 2% lead (38/36/14) – Sunday Telegraph
    BPIX giving Labour a 5% lead (36/41/11) – Mail on Sunday
    YouGov for The Sunday Times gives Labour an 8% lead (43/35/9) – You-Gov

    Is the ICM Poll an Outlier or are those from BPIX and You-Gov flawed in some way?

    Comment by Steve Foley | December 4, 2011 | Reply

    • Steve – it is possible that ICM is an outlier and the average suggests that Labour retains a small lead. However, ICM remain the “gold standard” of opinion pollsters with YouGov close behind. BPIX is an infrequent pollster and has less credibility.

      The notable point is that Labour is not performing well at a time when all the economic news seems to be bad. Cameron is more popular than Miliband and the Conservatives are thought more likely to get the economic situation right than Ed Balls!

      The Feltham and Heston by-election will be interesting but I would be surprised if there was anything other than a Labour hold there.

      Comment by Richard Willis | December 4, 2011 | Reply

      • Fair comments. My own gut feeling is that Labour are still a few points ahead of the Conservatives. I do wonder how long the powers that be in Labour will continue to back back Ed Miliband and when the “men in the boiler suits” will ask him to “spend more time with his family”?

        The problem for Labour is that there are non “papabile” to take over. Forget Brother David as the “Milibrand” has been poisoned by Ed the Ineffectual, Balls not only has an unfortunate surname, a Godsend to “The Sun” etc, but does not appeal to people and I cannot see Harriet Harman being a vote winner either. Andy Burnham is a possibility but still too inexperienced.

        Feltham and Heston will at least give some indication as to how the various parties, Labour, Conservative, UKIP and Lib-Dem are doing in the real world.

        Comment by Steve Foley | December 4, 2011

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