Richard Willis's Blog

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New YouGov Poll – Tories Take the Lead Again

There is a new YouGov poll published in tomorrow’s Sun newspaper showing the Conservatives overtaking Labour to take a 2% lead:

                   Conservative               40% (no change)

                   Labour                        38% (down 2%)
                                                    
                                                    Lib Dem                       10% (no change)
 
This suggests that the boost enjoyed by the Conservatives following David Cameron exercising the veto in the EU is being sustained into the new year.
 
In further findings, David Cameron is rated as the best Prime Minister by 41% (+3), while Ed Miliband is languishing on 17% (-2%).
 
Changes shown are compared to today’s YouGov poll.
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January 11, 2012 - Posted by | Polls

1 Comment »

  1. I doubt you read Eoin Clarke much, so I thought I’d put this up from his latest blog post: http://eoin-clarke.blogspot.com/
    “YouGov polling made two changes to its methodology recently that have the effect of reducing Labour support in their polls by 1-2%. I try to explain them below.

    1) YouGov ‘weight’ their sample by Newspaper Readership (and have always done so) – but recently the number of ‘Daily Mirror’ readers in their sample has been cut sharply. This has the effect of reducing Labour’s support to the benefit of the other parties since about 60% of Daily Mirror readers vote Labour.

    2) YouGov used to weight all of the ‘others’ (UKIP, BNP, SNP, Plaid, Greens) together in one lump based upon the % others got at the 2010 General Election. They have changed this to weight the Scottish & Welsh nationalists separately. This, especially in a year of assembly elections, has the effect of hurting Labour support, more so in Scotland. A chunk of Labour’s boost in the typical YG poll used to come from their often 50%+ showings in Scotland but that has been markedly reduced as Scottish voters in many ways still think and reply to polls with their Holyrood cap on.

    3. It might also be mentioned that ICM polling assume that 50% of the ‘Don’t Know’ replies they receive from poll respondents will return to the party they voted for at the last election. This, especially in the case of the Liberal Democrats has the effect of boosting them in ICM polls by 2.2% usually to the expense of Labour since voters have left yellow to the ratio of 2:1 in favour of Labour over the Tories. It is one of the reasons that Labour have always scored less high with ICM post 2010.

    As Labour now hover on 40% with YouGov, just a few months ago the same polling company would have been recording 42% for Labour (or thereabouts) based upon exactly the same responses from their poll respondents.”

    Comment by Jonny | January 19, 2012 | Reply


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