Richard Willis's Blog

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New YouGov Poll – Tory Lead Increases to 2%

There is a new YouGov poll in the Sun newspaper tomorrow showing the Conservatives increasing their lead over Labour to 2%:

                   Conservative               40% (down 1%)

                   Labour                         38% (down 2%)

                                                     Lib Dem                         10% (up 2%)

In other findings 33% approve of the Government’s record to date with 52% disapproving, giving a net approval of -19%.

It suggests that yesterday’s 5% Labour lead was very much an outlier!

Changes shown are compared to the last YouGov poll I covered on 6 February.

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February 8, 2012 - Posted by | Polls

1 Comment »

  1. I work in Electronics and often when taking measurements one gets small spurious signals which swing about a mid line and we call these “noise”. The Polls for the last few weeks seem to be doing this. Tories go forward 2% usually taking the Lid-Dems up with them, but next Poll and they are level pegging with Labour or even an equally small Labour Lead and the LDs drop a few %.

    2% is within the margin of error and until there is a lead of at least 5% for either of the two main parties and which is sustained Poll on Poll then it realliy is not worth blowiing any trumpets. I cannot see there being any break from this parity situation until after the Budget when depending on its content there will either be a Conservative advance, or Labour will see the benefit if Osborne maintains the current austerity with no respite or concessions.

    Local by-elections also show no consistant trend. Some Tory Holds and occasionlly a gain from Independents or Ratepayers , but equally the occasionall loss to the Lib-Dems or even Labour of seats won in 2008/ 2009 in the good years.

    So far all the Parliamentary by-elections have beeen in safe Labour seats and have stayed with Labour, usually with an increased majority and a +ve swing to that party. What is needed is a by-election in a marginal Tory seat, possibly one gained from Labour in May 2010, to show which way the wind blows.

    Comment by Steve Foley | February 9, 2012 | Reply


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