New ComRes Poll – Labour’s Lead Now 10%
Conservative 32% (no change)
Labour 42% (up 1%)
Lib Dem 9% (down 2%)
UKIP 8% (up 1%)
In further findings:
In your view, does each of the following statements apply or not to the current Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne?
Is out of touch with the public
Does apply 59%
Does not apply 20%
- It is particularly dangerous for Mr Osborne that older age groups, who are most likely to vote, are the most critical. Older people are more likely to think that he is “out of touch”, with 63% of those aged 45 and over saying that it applies to him.
Is too posh to understand the financial pressures on ordinary people
Does apply 55%
Does not apply 23%
Comes across as arrogant
Does apply 52%
Does not apply 24%
Has made too many mistakes to be taken seriously
Does apply 48%
Does not apply 25%
Is an able politician
Does apply 31%
Does not apply 39%
Is doing a good job in difficult times
Does apply 27%
Does not apply 46%
Is leading the country’s economy in the right direction
Does apply 25%
Does not apply 46%
Should be replaced by someone like William Hague
Does apply 21%
Does not apply 34%
Don’t know 45%
- The don’t knows have it.
Finally, we asked if people agreed or disagreed with this statement:
I am satisfied with the way George Osborne is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer
(In the most recent MORI survey (April 2012) 28% said they were satisfied and 58% dissatisfied.)
The UK Independence Party equalled its ComRes record of 8% in voting intention, just one point behind the Lib Dems, and our other questions confirm the Eurosceptic mood of public opinion. We asked if people agreed or disagreed with the following:
The British people should have the opportunity to vote in a referendum on whether or not Britain should stay in or withdraw from the European Union
Agree 71% (81% in May 2009)
Disagree 14% (17% in May 2009)
- This is consistent with polling over the past decade on this issue, which shows demand for a referendum has declined since 2009, but hardly supports the Prime Minister’s claim that there is “no appetite” for a referendum. His own voters are the most supportive – 77% support a referendum compared with 69% of Labour voters and 63% of Lib Dems.
Having a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU would probably result in this country’s withdrawal from it
- This runs counter to much commentary on the question, which suggests that opinion would shift in favour of the status quo in a referendum campaign.
Leaving the EU would be worth the economic pain, if any is caused, for the freedom it would give the UK to make its own laws
- Again, the answers are surprising, it being assumed that perceived economic interests would dominate. Older age groups are almost twice as likely as younger age groups to agree. There is also a trend by social class with lower income groups most likely to agree. Both Conservative and Labour voters are more likely to agree than disagree, while this is reversed for Lib Dems.
The Conservative Party is unlikely to win the next General Election
- One in five (20%) Conservative voters agrees, compared with over half of Lib Dems (52%) and 76% of Labour voters
I would prefer another Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government to an outright majority Conservative win at the next general election
- Half of 2010 Lib Dem voters (50%) agree with this whereas only 16% of 2010 Conservative voters agree. Also interesting is that 62% of current Lib Dem voters, and only 17% of current Tory voters, agree.
David Cameron leaving his daughter in a pub on Sunday was the sort of mistake any parent can easily make
- There is no gender gap, but older people are more forgiving on this question: 57% of those aged 65+ agree compared with 39% of those aged 18 to 24.
While many parents might by mistake forget to take one of their children with them when they leave somewhere, it is not something a Prime Minister should do
Methodology: ComRes interviewed 2,014 GB adults online 13-15 June 2012. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults and by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at www.comres.co.uk.