Richard Willis's Blog

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New ComRes Poll – Labour’s Lead Now 10%

There is a new ComRes online poll published in tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday which shows Labour increasing its lead over the Conservatives slightly to 10%:

           Conservative            32% (no change)

                                        Labour                      42% (up 1%)

                                        Lib Dem                      9% (down 2%)

                                        UKIP                            8% (up 1%)

In further findings:

George Osborne

In your view, does each of the following statements apply or not to the current Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne?

Is out of touch with the public

Does apply 59%

Does not apply 20%

  • It is particularly dangerous for Mr Osborne that older age groups, who are most likely to vote, are the most critical. Older people are more likely to think that he is “out of touch”, with 63% of those aged 45 and over saying that it applies to him.

Is too posh to understand the financial pressures on ordinary people

Does apply 55%

Does not apply 23%

Comes across as arrogant

Does apply 52%

Does not apply 24%

Has made too many mistakes to be taken seriously

Does apply 48%

Does not apply 25%

Is an able politician

Does apply 31%

Does not apply 39%

Is doing a good job in difficult times

Does apply 27%

Does not apply 46%

Is leading the country’s economy in the right direction

Does apply 25%

Does not apply 46%

Should be replaced by someone like William Hague

Does apply 21%

Does not apply 34%

Don’t know 45%

  • The don’t knows have it.

Finally, we asked if people agreed or disagreed with this statement:

I am satisfied with the way George Osborne is doing his job as Chancellor of the Exchequer

Agree 23%

Disagree 51%

(In the most recent MORI survey (April 2012) 28% said they were satisfied and 58% dissatisfied.)

Europe

The UK Independence Party equalled its ComRes record of 8% in voting intention, just one point behind the Lib Dems, and our other questions confirm the Eurosceptic mood of public opinion. We asked if people agreed or disagreed with the following:

The British people should have the opportunity to vote in a referendum on whether or not Britain should stay in or withdraw from the European Union

Agree 71% (81% in May 2009)

Disagree 14%  (17% in May 2009)

  • This is consistent with polling over the past decade on this issue, which shows demand for a referendum has declined since 2009, but hardly supports the Prime Minister’s claim that there is “no appetite” for a referendum. His own voters are the most supportive – 77% support a referendum compared with 69% of Labour voters and 63% of Lib Dems.

Having a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU would probably result in this country’s withdrawal from it

Agree 61%

Disagree 11%

  • This runs counter to much commentary on the question, which suggests that opinion would shift in favour of the status quo in a referendum campaign.

Leaving the EU would be worth the economic pain, if any is caused, for the freedom it would give the UK to make its own laws

Agree 51%

Disagree 24%

  • Again, the answers are surprising, it being assumed that perceived economic interests would dominate. Older age groups are almost twice as likely as younger age groups to agree. There is also a trend by social class with lower income groups most likely to agree. Both Conservative and Labour voters are more likely to agree than disagree, while this is reversed for Lib Dems.

Additional Questions

The Conservative Party is unlikely to win the next General Election

Agree 52%

Disagree 17%

  • One in five (20%) Conservative voters agrees, compared with over half of Lib Dems (52%) and 76% of Labour voters

I would prefer another Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government to an outright majority Conservative win at the next general election

Agree 27%

Disagree 48%

  • Half of 2010 Lib Dem voters (50%) agree with this whereas only 16% of 2010 Conservative voters agree. Also interesting is that 62% of current Lib Dem voters, and only 17% of current Tory voters, agree.

David Cameron leaving his daughter in a pub on Sunday was the sort of mistake any parent can easily make

Agree 48%

Disagree 40%

  • There is no gender gap, but older people are more forgiving on this question: 57% of those aged 65+ agree compared with 39% of those aged 18 to 24.

While many parents might by mistake forget to take one of their children with them when they leave somewhere, it is not something a Prime Minister should do

Agree 43%

Disagree 42%

Methodology: ComRes interviewed 2,014 GB adults online 13-15 June 2012. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults and by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at www.comres.co.uk.

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June 16, 2012 - Posted by | Polls

1 Comment »

  1. “Having a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU would probably result in this country’s withdrawal from it

    Agree 61%
    Disagree 11%

    • This runs counter to much commentary on the question, which suggests that opinion would shift in favour of the status quo in a referendum campaign”

    ————————————————–

    The commentary is wrong and is most probably wishful thinking by the Party Hacks and Cheerleaders of the Pale Blue and Yellow tents in the Political Village. If Cameron had the guts, which of course he hasn’t, to grant an In/Out Referendum then I would feel confident that at least 60% of ordinary citizens would vote to quit the EU.. That apart Labour’s Lead is sustaining between 8% and 10% and that George Osborne is perceived to be totally out of touch by the majority of respondents.does NOT surprise me in the slightest

    I repeat what I have said before that what we need is a by-election in a Tory seat, preferably a marginal, to test the waters. It is well seen that Cameron did NOT enoble any of his MPs for fear of losing the subsequent by-election. .

    Comment by Steve Foley | June 16, 2012 | Reply


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