Richard Willis's Blog

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New Populus Poll – Labour Lead Static at 8%

There is a new Populus poll in tomorrow’s Times which shows Labour holding its 8% lead over the Conservatives:

      Conservative              33% (no change)

      Labour                        41% (no change)

                                                           Lib Dem                        9% (down 1%)

                                                           UKIP                             5%

This is consistent with most other recent polling showing Labour’s lead steady at 8-10%.


June 18, 2012 - Posted by | Polls


  1. Much as I would have expected. Labour maintain their lead. I was disappointed but not surprised that Cameron did not enoble some of his time-served backbenchers as he is obviously afraid of losing the seat(s) in the subsequent by-election. It would be good to have a by-election in a Conservative held seat to test the waters in a real poll.

    Comment by Steve Foley | June 18, 2012 | Reply

    • Steve – it is quite rare for a PM to enoble a sitting MP thus causing a by-election. I can’t think of the last time this happened, can you?

      Labour’s lead seems to be quite fragile and still below where many of us had expected it to be at mid-term in this Parliament. It will be interesting to see whether Labour can maintain a lead over the next 12 months. They should do but at the end of last year Cameron’s EU veto caused a significant (but temporary) shift.

      Comment by Richard Willis | June 18, 2012 | Reply

  2. Richard,. Maggie ennobled William Whitelaw after a General Election, the Conservatives held the seat Penrith but with a reduced majority. John Major ennobled David Waddington as soon as he became PM as he wanted rid of him as Home Secretary as Waddington had a REAL Tory’s attitude towards punishing criminals which did not suit Major’s Liberal outlook.

    Harold Wilson lost many seats at by-elections 1967-1970 when he gave MPs for apparently safe Labour seats Peerages although he won many of these back at the 1970 General Election although he lost that to Heath.

    Comment by Steve Foley | June 18, 2012 | Reply

    • Steve – I think that rather makes my point that it is a very rare event these days! Major became PM over 20 years ago and that is the most recent example you or I can think of.

      Comment by Richard Willis | June 18, 2012 | Reply

      • It used to be more common as a reward to MPs who had been in Parliament for a while especially former Ministers.

        Now I accept that since the introduction of Life Peerages and especially the mess that Blair made of the House of Lords a Peerage has lost much of its appeal, but I do wonder how big a part fear of losing a by-election has played in preventing PMs both labour and Tory since Major from ennobling sitting MPs, former Ministers etc.

        Comment by Steve Foley | June 19, 2012

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