Richard Willis's Blog

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New(ish) ICM Poll – Labour Lead Static at 5%

There was a new ICM poll in the Guardian on 27 Aug while I was away in Poland showing Labour’s lead static at just 5%:

         Conservative              34% (no change)

                                                    Labour                        39% (no change)

                                                    Lib Dem                      15% (up 1%)

                                                    UKIP                              4% (up 1%)

ICM tends to show the lowest Labour leads but is also regarded as the “gold standard” among political pollsters.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1002 adults aged 18+ on 24-26th August 2012. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.


August 29, 2012 - Posted by | Polls |


  1. It is interesting that this Poll shows UKIP tripping along the bottom at a mere 4% and the Lib-Dems showing the best figure they have had for ages yet this does not tally with other polls which not only show Labour’s lead between 7% and 8% but UKIP in third place and higher up the % scale with the Lib-Dems about 1% below UKIP. Now either this poll is off line or some of the others have been.

    The sooner we have the REAL Poll at Corby with the by-election the better as this will show a more accurate state of the Parties.

    Comment by Steve Foley | August 29, 2012 | Reply

  2. Have a look at THIS Poll Richard

    CON 30%(-4), LAB 45%(+5), LDEM 10%(-2). Changes are from Populus’s last poll back in July.

    This would give Labour a good overall majority to say the least.

    Of course it could be an outlier but it will be interesting to see if Labour’s lead is trending upwards when the other Polls come out.

    Comment by Steve Foley | September 18, 2012 | Reply

    • Steve – I saw it in yesterday’s Times. I suspect it is an outlier. Most polls average a lead of 10% +/- 3%.
      Also interesting to note that 61% prefer Cameron as PM, and only 30% Miliband!!

      Comment by Richard Willis | September 19, 2012 | Reply

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