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New YouGov Poll – Labour Lead Cut to Just 6%

There is a new YouGov poll for today’s Sunday Times newspaper which shows Labour’s lead slashed to just 6%:

                   Conservative               35% (up 1%)

                   Labour                         41% (down 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                         9% (up 1%)

                                                     UKIP                               7% (down%)

This is the smallest Labour lead shown in a YouGov poll for some time but it is in line with the “gold standard” ICM poll last weekend. YouGov have been showing Labour leads in the 8-11% range for some time and it will be interesting to see whether this is an outlier or a start of a series of shrunken Labour leads.

With a Cabinet reshuffle imminent and the Party Conferences about to start a shift in the political landscape is a possibility over the next few weeks. After the worst six months for the Coalition government Ed Miliband and Labour would have hoped to have been consolidating or growing their lead not seeing it shrink. Labour need to rethink their current tactics of opposing everything but standing for nothing.

The Lib Dems also will not be happy with their vote share, marooned on 7-9%. They face the loss of the majority of their existing MPs if they cannot improve their share during the run up to the General Election. Despite the hype around their closeness to the Lib Dems in vote share UKIP have no prospect of gaining any MPs unless they are able to concentrate some support in one or two constituencies.

Changes shown are compared to the last YouGov poll I reported on 11 Aug.


September 2, 2012 - Posted by | Polls |


  1. Whether it is “just” 6% or “just” 5% or even “just” 8% Labour has consistently had a lead over the Conservatives for some time. I would however state that it is lower than one would except at this stage of a Parliament and that is more an index of the ineptitude, inertia, and invisibility of Ineffectual Ed Miliband than anything positive from Cameron and Co. There have been plenty of Open Goals but Ed has either failed to see them or is unable to kick the ball. The silence from Ed has been deafening.

    Parliament resumes next week so I understand and let us hope the Writ for the Corby By-election is moved and for a more sensible date in October instead of mid November. That will give us some REAL results to deal with rather than Opinion Polls. Funnily enough Labour needs to win this seat far more than the Conservatives need to hold it. Cameron can shrug it off if Corby changes hands as a “mid term protest” but if Labour fail to win such an easy target then Ed Miliband will lose so much credibility that his position as Labour Leader will be greatly weakened.

    Comment by Steve Foley | September 2, 2012 | Reply

  2. The headline is pretty misleading here. You well know that you can’t pluck a solitary poll out of the air and report it as a ‘drop’ in the lead. You also can’t compare apples (YouGov) with pears (ICM). Makes no sense. Anyway, borring heavily from one of YouGov’s own, here, who says it much better himself:

    Comment by Mike Hartley | September 2, 2012 | Reply

    • Mike – it is not misleading at all! If you read what I say under the results you will see that my commment is along the same lines as Anthony Wells. I have been plotting opinion polls since 1982 and am well aware of differences in methodolgy and sampling error from one to the other. This poll is significant for the small Labour lead it shows but we will have to see whether this is reflected in the next YouGov polls or whether the lead reverts to its recent 8-11% normal fluctuation.

      Comment by Richard Willis | September 2, 2012 | Reply

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