Richard Willis's Blog

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New YouGov Poll – Labour Now Just 4% Ahead

There is a new YouGov poll in today’s Sun newspaper with Labour’s lead falling to just 4% after a week of Labour leads which varied from 7-12%:

                   Conservative               35% (no change)

                   Labour                         39% (down 3%)

                                                     Lib Dem                          10% (up 1%)

                                                     UKIP                                8% (up 1%)

This poll may be an outlier but it underlines the fragility of Labour’s lead in a week when we will see elections for Police and Crime Commissioner and several Parliamentary by-elections. At the mid-point of this Parliament I had expected to see Labour consistently well ahead as the Government takes the difficult decisions necessary to clear up the mess it inherited. Whilst Labour should win all the by-elections this week it will not be a very good indicator of what might happen at a General Election in 2015.

Changes shown are compared to the last YouGov poll I reported on 4 November.

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November 13, 2012 - Posted by | Polls |

3 Comments »

  1. I have little faith in Opinion Polls these days and to be honest have never really believed in them since June 1970 and agree with your suggestion that we wait till the outcome of the Corby by-election, likely to be a Labour gain, the other by-elections of which almost nothing has been heard Manchester Central and Cardiff and Penarth, and of course the PCC Elections and then see what the REAL position of the parties may be.

    Comment by Steve Foley | November 13, 2012 | Reply

  2. Much weeping and gnashing of teeth from the Tories on Friday morning is my confident prediction. Decimated in the three By-elections and Labour will handsomely win the Mayoral election in Bristol. Usual guff about governments getting a good kicking in mid term will be trotted out by some backbencher or other. Could be Rob Wilson if he can be persuaded to halt his letter writing for a couple of hours.

    Comment by Phil the Greek | November 13, 2012 | Reply

    • Phil they ALL do it. I can remember when the Tories won Crewe and Nantwich, and Norwich North, the Labour stooge on TV each time came out with all that crap and no doubt his Tory counterpart will be doing the same on Friday morning. What goes around comes around.

      “Much weeping and gnashing of teeth from the Tories on Friday morning is my confident prediction. Decimated in the three By-elections and Labour will handsomely win the Mayoral election in Bristol.” My prediction too.

      Comment by Steve Foley | November 13, 2012 | Reply


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