Richard Willis's Blog

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New Opinium Poll – Labour Lead Down to 7%

 There is a new Opinium poll in tomorrows Observer newspaper showing Labour’s lead being cut from last month’s 11% to 7% now:

            Conservative            32% (up 2%)

                                                           Labour                      39% (down 2%)

                                                           Lib Dem                     8% (down 1%)

                                                           UKIP                         10% (up 1%)


In further findings:


November 17, 2012 - Posted by | Polls


  1. My Heavens but you do have a nerve Richard! In the REAL polls that occurred on Thursday 15th Nov 2012 the following occurred.:- LABOUR GAINED CORBY. 12.67% swing and a majority .7,791. Tory Candidate loses deposit in Manchester Central, and your party only wins 16 of the 41 PCCs with Labour taking 13 and Independents 12 and you failed in places such as Surrey and Hampshire. The only good result for the Conservatives was the Tory defeating Prescott in Humberside. To be honest your strap line to this posting reminds me of two historical examples of whistling in the dark, Dr Goebbels showing of the movie “Kolberg” in Jan 1945 while the Russians were advancing on Germany, and even more so Emperor Hirohito on the radio telling the Japanese that “The war was not developing in Japan’s favour”. If this is what Labour can attain in real Polls when their lead “drops to 7%” then God help the Tories if it rises to double figures!

    There are two more Parliamentary by-elections, in Middlesbrough and Croydon Central, in the offing, both quite safe seats but where the deceased MPs had a strong personal vote. It will be interesting to see how well the Conservatives do in these.

    I have long been sceptical abour Opinion Polls, indeed all the way since the 1970 General Election to be honest and feel that I should print off their results and hang them on a nail in my toilet in case I run out of Andrex.

    One interesting piece of news is that Cameron is to engage Linton Crosby who had been Election Organiser for Boris to run Conservative Campaigns especially the next General Election. Can we assume that all that Steve Hilton air-fairy nonsense such as “The Big Society” will be ditched and concrete issues will be addressed?

    Comment by Steve Foley | November 18, 2012 | Reply

    • Steve – I am not sure what you are on about! The poll results are the poll results and this poll shows Labour’s lead down!

      Labour’s results on Thursday were good but not spectacular which is consistent with a modest lead in the polls. The Corby gain was very predictable but their failure in Bristol, the PCC elections and local by-elections tells a different story. I will be posting a summary of Thursday’s results shortly.

      You may be sceptical of opinion polls but the good ones (eg ICM and YouGov) have a track record of being pretty accurate. All opinion polls are showing a Labour lead of around 7-12% with an average of about 9% at present. Thursdays actual voting across the nation are consistent with this.

      There is a long way to go to 2015 and Lynton Crosby will bring some more campaigning focus to the Party in support of the more focussed approach brought by Grant Shapps in the Chairman’s role.

      Comment by Richard Willis | November 18, 2012 | Reply

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