Richard Willis's Blog

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New YouGov Poll – UKIP on Just 8%

There is a new YouGov poll in today’s Sunday Times newspaper showing Labour’s increasing to 12%. More significantly UKIP is down in fourth place on just 8%, the lowest in a YouGov poll for a month:

                   Conservative               33% (no change)

                   Labour                         45% (up 3%)

                                                     Lib Dem                          9% (down 1%)

                                                     UKIP                                8% (down 1%)

In the poll detail voters back David Cameron’s stance on Equal Marriage by 55% to 36%. Conservatives are split 45% in favour with 45% against. Anthony Wells has more analysis here.

Changes shown are compared to the last YouGov poll I reported on 9 December.

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December 16, 2012 - Posted by | Polls |

2 Comments »

  1. I’m sure you prefer this poll to the previous one you posted Richard, but to me it just shows how unreliable Opinion Polls can be and how inconsistent as a Calibration Technician I would say that the uncertainties and errors in Opinion Polls are unacceptable and I only use them as an indication, much as a buzzer or a lamp in a circuit but it is NOT an accurate measurement of the Voltage etc for which one needs an accurate meter. In like manner elections and by-elections are far better measures of the popularity or otherwise of a political party.

    Comment by Steve Foley | December 16, 2012 | Reply

    • Steve – ComRes have changed their methodology which could account for the sharp change in their findings. YouGov have a long track record of accuracy which is why they and ICM are considered the “gold standard” by those who follow polls. Of course polls can only be an indicator and not a predictor but a good poll can be a good indicator! By-elections are a notoriously poor indicator of the state of national opinion. They are often coloured by very local factors and a by-election in Corby only tells us about the opinion of the voters of Corby on that day.

      A good example is the performance of the Lib Dems in by-elections over a long period when they consistently out-performed their polls ratings and then failed to match it at the subsequent General Election.

      Comment by Richard Willis | December 16, 2012 | Reply


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