Richard Willis's Blog

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New(ish) ICM Poll – 51% Could Vote to Leave the EU

While I was away for Christmas there was a new ICM poll in the Guardian yesterday showing Labour’s lead holding at 8%:

         Conservative              32% (no change)

                                                    Labour                        40% (no change)

                                                    Lib Dem                      13% (no change)

                                                    UKIP                              7% (no change)

The poll finds a marked swing of sentiment against the EU over the last 12 months which is also reflected in UKIP’s higher level of support. 36% say they would definitely vote to pull Britain out, against just 22% who definitely want to stay in. That compares with 18% who say they would probably want to stay in, and 15% who indicate that they would probably want to get out.


I remind readers that ICM is the “Gold Standard” of opinion pollsters amongst polling aficionados.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,002 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 19-23 December 2012. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.


December 27, 2012 - Posted by | Polls |


  1. Apart from the thought that they have got the accursed Lib-Dems figure and that of UKIP transposed these figures are much as I would have expected both for party % and on the EU issue.

    Hope you had a Merry Xmas Richard and wishing you a Happy New Year.

    Comment by Steve Foley | December 27, 2012 | Reply

    • Happy Christmas and New Year to you too Steve!

      Comment by Richard Willis | December 27, 2012 | Reply

  2. Have a look at this Richard. I know you don’t like this Pollster as they do not give you the answers you want to read viz , Labour lead in single figures and Lib-Dems third above UKIP. Well as Robbie Burns pit it, “Facts are chiels that winna ding”

    Enjoy and when it comes a Happy New Year.

    Comment by Steve Foley | December 30, 2012 | Reply

    • Steve – it is not an issue of liking a pollster “because they do not give the answers [I] want to read”! Some pollsters have a better track record than others. As I have indicated before many times ICM and YouGov are recognised as having excellent track records and are therefore seen as more reliable than some of the others. ICM is widely acknowledged as the “gold standard” of political opinion polling. Some pollsters have more suspect methodology or still do not publish full statistical tables as they are required to.

      Have a look at and for some of their historic articles which cover the credibility of different polling companies.

      Happy New Year!

      Comment by Richard Willis | December 30, 2012 | Reply

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