Richard Willis's Blog

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New TNS-BMRB Poll – Labour Lead Cut to 6%

There is a new online poll from TNS-BMRB published today. The Conservatives have closed the gap significantly on Labour and UKIP have doubled their lead over the Lib Dems:

         Conservative             31% (up 2%)

         Labour                       37% (down 2%)

                                                        Lib Dem                       9% (down 1%) 

                                                        UKIP                           13% (up 1%)

TNS BMRB interviewed a representative sample of 1,198 people between 11th-14th January 2013.


January 15, 2013 - Posted by | Polls


  1. UKIP on double figures once again. GOOD!

    Comment by Steve Foley | January 15, 2013 | Reply

    • And there was me thinking you were a Labour voter! 🙂

      Comment by Richard Willis | January 15, 2013 | Reply

  2. Steve may be a Labour voter, but if David Cameron doesn’t stop insulting UKIP he may be allowing Labour into government by the back door. No wonder Steve is happy.
    I can see a change of Conservative leader before the next election at this rate.Apparantly the smart money is on David Davis.

    Comment by Howard Thomas | January 17, 2013 | Reply

    • Howard, economically Davis Davis is even harder than Cameron. Is that what the Tories want given the increasing unpopularity of their Austerity policies? However Davis is also far more Eurosceptic and more to the Social Right than the liberal Cameron. Also Tories usually let a Leader lose before they sack them, e.g. Home, Heath. Maggie Thatcher was an exception as she resigned before she was pushed but had won them three elections two as landslides and of course IDS was NOT permitted to lead his party into the 2005 General Election when “the men in the grey suits” called on him. To be honest in think there is more chance of the Tory Party splitting with some MPs on the Social and Moral Traditionalist Right rebelling over Europe and same-sex “Marriage” and either sitting as Independents or some defecting to UKIP, than the Tories sacking Cameron as their leader before the 2015 General Election, assuming the Tory Party’s rules permit such a move these days. Love him or loathe him, we are stuck with Cameron as PM until the Spring of 2015.

      Ironically the best Leader the Conservatives have at this time is Ed Miliband the LABOUR Leader as his ineffectual even inept Leadership of Labour , e,g, asking the wrong questions at PMQ’s could have the Kinnock Effect and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory for Labour. I feel they ought to do him what the Tories did to IDS when he was their Leader and get rid of him. Look how the Tories fortunes improved when they replaced “The Quiet Man” with Michael Howard, slashing the Labour Majority in 2005, (they simply could not have won that election) and making them appear electable again. I have often wondered what would have happened had Howard stayed in place to fight Brown in May 2010? I feel that the Tories would have got a small but overall majority similar to that of Heath in 1970.

      As for UKIP I can sympathise with many of their Social and Moral polices but am NOT keen on their Economic/Employment and Welfare ones which are far too close to Cameron/Osborne/IDS for my liking. In a marginal constituency like Reading West I cannot take a gamble with my vote as it is a seat such as this which will decide whether Labour or the Conservatives form the next Government. Had we got AV as a result of the referendum thereon, and I was in favour of this change, then I could have had the choice of voting UKIP as my first preference and Labour as my second but with FPTP I have to make my vote count. Those living in safe seats for either of the main parties can indulge themselves as voters often do at by-elections.

      As for the Intervention Effect of UKIP, This is said to have cost the Conservatives about 23 or so seats in 2010 which they would otherwise have won and certainly lost them Wells to the Lib-Dems. There sole Candidate for Reading Borough Council prevented the Tories from repeating their 2011 gain of Tilehurst from the Lib-Dems. It would certainly be a very bitter irony for Cameron if he was kicked out by a party which didn’t gain a single Parliamentary seat itself but took sufficient votes from him to let Labour win. The problem for Cameron is that simply saying “sorry” will cut no ice with UKIP and he won’t be able to charm them they way he did with the Lib-Dems in May 2010. We certainly DO live in “interesting times” politically.

      Comment by Steve Foley | January 17, 2013 | Reply

      • If the Conservatives feel that they have a leader that is going to lead them to defeat I think they will be as ruthless with that leader as they were with Maggie Thatcher. Farage has stated that there will be no deal or pact with the Conservatives while Cameron is in charge. The choice wil be clear to MPs nearer to the time, either change leader or lose. You can be certain that we will be offered a referendum by Cameron, but you can also be certain that he will muddy the water and that the choice will be anything other than a straight in/out question. I believe that we should be asked as to whether we want to be carrying on as we are , in other words an ever closer union or to have a ‘common market’ type membership whereby we trade freely with the countries on the ‘mainland’ , but make our own rules and laws…….and control our own borders! There is of course the Bulgaria and Romania question coming up and at the moment the government give the appearance of not knowing what to do about it. We have to control our population rise because at the results of the last governmnent’s policy of allowing large numbers of migrant workers in from the EU has has had many quite serious consequences.
        For example this flooding of the labour market has kept wages down. Labour government spokesmen said as much by stating that without the immigration there would have been a “wage explosion”. The quickly rising population helped to create an accomodation shortage which has seen property prices rise to eye watering levels both in the owning and renting senses.
        The housing benefit bill stands at £21billion last time I looked and many of the claimants are people that are in work! Another massive benefit bill is the working tax credits that apparantly has cost circa £170billion over a 10 year period. Presuming that it costs more now than it did at the beginning this bill must also be over £20billion now. Looking at the big picture these benefits are paid quite simply to make working for a living into an economical way for people to go forward, but politicians of all major parties fail to grasp the reasons for this situation. Keep wa

        Comment by Howard Thomas | January 19, 2013

  3. Perhaps I ran out of ‘space’ ?
    But, ……keeping wages down while the cost of having a roof over your head rises quickly can only lead to the type of situation we find ourselves in. ie the government has to invent ways to make it worthwhile for people to work. This is crazy and is leading to a generation who will never be able to have the ability to own their own house or flat.
    Just for interest I have asked UKIP about their policy with regard to our electoral system and their response states that they favour a form of PR as our current method is unfair.
    They also have a policy of wishing to introduce a referendum system along the lines of the one that is used in Switzerland. If enough people sign up to a petition there has to be a referendum on that issue and the result is binding on the government. It would need to have approx a million sigatures in the UK to be in the same proportion as theirs. This would stop our ‘elected dictatorship’ system in its tracks which currently elects the PM and then they can do as they please for 5 years. In Switzerland they accumulate the questions and have usually just one day a year to vote on the issues where there might be several questions. To me that sounds like democracy!
    Coming back to DC’s position, I think he will be in serious trouble if UKIP continue to grow in popularity and it has to be remembered that there is a Eurpean election before we have a general election and it is quite feasible that UKIP could come out on top. That would set the cat amongst the pidgeons.

    Comment by Howard Thomas | January 19, 2013 | Reply

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