Richard Willis's Blog

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New YouGov Poll – UKIP Falls Back

There is a new YouGov poll in today’s Sunday Times newspaper showing UKIP dropping back significantly putting them well behind the Lib Dems:

                   Conservative               33% (no change)

                   Labour                         42% (up 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                       11% (no change)

                                                     UKIP                              7% (down 3%)

YouGov also asked about voting intentions in the 2014 Euro Elections and they found: Lab 38%, Cons 30%, LD 13%, UKIP 12%. This marks a significant drop for UKIP from the previous findings which had them on 17%. As usual when sharp changes are seen in a poll a note of caution should be sounded and we should see if the same trends are found in other polls before jumping to firm conclusions.

David Cameron has seen an improvement in his approval ratings to -14%, well ahead of Ed Miliband on -22% and Nick Clegg on -47%.

Changes shown are compared to the last YouGov poll I reported on 21 December.


January 20, 2013 - Posted by | Polls |


  1. Sorry but not surprised as people think that Cameron may make a strong show in his speech later this week. A similar effect was observed in the final week of the Feltham by-election in Dec 2011 after Cameron’s brave words and use of the veto.

    Unfortunately for UKIP the Euro Elections with the to them helpful de Hondt system and the County Elections in May under FPTP are NOT a happy hunting ground for UKIP. Perhaps a suitable Parliamentary by-election may occur in a Tory marginal especially one where the Lib Dems came second in 2010 and UKIP could jump them and threaten the Tories? The problem for UKIP is the very same which gave them their raison d’ etre is their principle weakness the EU and UKIP being perceived as a one trick pony. In actual fact they have a whole platform of policies on all the main issues, most good but a few not but all one hears of is the EU which is NOT the Issue of Issues to most voters. UKIP has to broaden its approach as the SNP did in Scotland by ceasing to be all about Independence to the exclusion of other vital issues. Once the SNP did this it gained and was able to become the Government of Scotland in two elections, the most recent with an overall majority and may well gain Independence in 2014

    Comment by steve foley | January 20, 2013 | Reply

  2. I meant to say in my post Number 1 that “…the Euro Elections with the (to UKIP) helpful de Hondt System are not till 2014 and the Country Elections …….” FPTP is NOT helpful to small parties with a thinly spread support and favours the existing parties with their geographical strongholds and bedrock support in their respective socio-economic classes.

    Comment by Steve Foley | January 20, 2013 | Reply

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