Richard Willis's Blog

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New ComRes Poll – Tories Surge After Cameron’s EU Speech

There is a new ComRes online poll published in tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday which shows the Conservatives reversing last months jump in UKIP support following David Cameron’s speech on the EU:

           Conservative            33% (up 5%)

                                        Labour                      39% (no change)

                                        Lib Dem                     11% (up 2%)

                                        UKIP                          10% (down 4%)

In further findings:

Cameron versus Miliband

David Cameron is good at standing up for Britain’s interests in the European Union:

Agree: 42% Disagree: 33%

Three quarters (76%) of Conservative voters and half (53%) of Liberal Democrats agree.

If Ed Miliband were prime minister, he would be good at standing up for Britain’s interests in the EU:

Agree: 22% Disagree: 44%

Just half (51%) of Labour voters, 5% of Conservative voters and 14% of Liberal Democrats agree.

David Cameron is turning out to be a good Prime Minister:

Agree: 32% (+5) Disagree: 46% (-6)

(Change since last month) This is his best net score (-14) since June 2011.

Europe

If a referendum were held on Britain’s membership of the EU, I would vote for Britain to leave the EU:

Agree: 43% (-3) Disagree: 31% (+1)

(Change since May 2012)

If some EU powers cannot be restored to the UK, we should leave the EU:

Agree: 57% (-1) Disagree: 21% (+3)

(Change since November) Half (50%) of Labour voters agree, as do 65% of Conservative voters and 47% of Liberal Democrat voters.

The UK should leave the EU regardless:

Agree: 33% (-10) Disagree: 43% (+10)

(Change since November) This sharp change may reflect confidence that the UK will be able to negotiate better terms.

Leaving the European Union would be bad for the British economy in terms of lost jobs and trade:

Agree: 38% (+2) Disagree: 36% (-4)

(Change since May 2012)

By promising a referendum on Europe in the future, David Cameron is causing years of uncertainty which will be bad for the British economy:

Agree: 43% Disagree: 30%

One in five (21%) Conservative voters agree.

I expect a Labour Government under Ed Miliband would try to abolish the pound and replace it with the Euro:

Agree: 30% Disagree: 32% Don’t know: 38%

Methodology: ComRes interviewed 2,035 GB adults online 23 – 25 January 2013. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults and by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at www.comres.co.uk.

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January 26, 2013 - Posted by | Polls

1 Comment »

  1. Richard, I bet your fingers were going at warp factor 10 as you typed this latest post and your heart was leaping for joy? Well why not. I am NOT so churlish to to deny someone the joy of good news.

    As happened in the last week of the Feltham and Heston By-Election in Dec 2011 Cameron has boosted his party over the EU, this time by promising an In/Out Referendum on the EU,.albeit with the two caveats that the Conservatives must win the 2015 General Election and the Referendum will be held AFTER he has “Renegotiated” certain matters. Now I heard this first in 1975 when Wilson was PM, plus ca change. I assume we have a cast-iron guarantee on this?

    As to the resulting drop in UKIP’s vote and their now being 1% behind the Lib-Dems that again follows the same pattern as in the by-election I have mentioned.

    Labour may still have a 6% lead. but I put the blame 100% on Ed Miliband, a nerdy little intellectual with a whining nasalised voice who has all the dynamism of a dead pigeon lying on the grass. His insistence in being against a Referendum on the EU could well be his “Kinnock” moment and lead to his snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Labour need an Attlee or a Wilson to seal the deal and I suggest they do to Ed the Unready what the Conservatives did to Iain Duncan Smith and persuade him to stand down on whatever pretext suits for the sake of his Party and the Working Class Voters. As to who would be a better Labour Leader only Andy Burnham comes to my mind but their could well be others not on the Front Bench.

    Anyway, enjoy this Poll Richard and a let’s see if it sustains and the Conservatives even go into a small lead. It’s over 2 years to the next General Election and I wonder if Cameron will come to regret his fixed 5 year Parliaments and removing the PM’s advantage in calling an election when it is propitious for his party?

    Comment by Steve Foley | January 26, 2013 | Reply


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