Richard Willis's Blog

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New YouGov Poll – Conservatives Take Support from Labour

There is a new YouGov poll in today’s Sun newspaper showing the Conservatives cutting Labour’s lead to 8%:

                   Conservative               33% (up 3%)

                   Labour                         41% (down 4%)

                                                     Lib Dem                       11% (no change)

                                                     UKIP                               9% (no change)

This suggests that the poll earlier in the week showing Labour with a 15% lead was an outlier.

Changes shown are compared to the last YouGov poll I reported on 4 February.


February 8, 2013 - Posted by | Polls |


  1. 44% minus 33% is equals an 11% lead in the school I attended decades ago, Still a good lead in anyone’s book and better than the 7% lead that Labour have been holding for the last few Polls. Of course I will be a lot more interested in the Eastleigh by-election. Will the Tories play to win in this contest or do an “Old and Sad” and sabotage their candidate to, as Andrew Mitchell said at the time, “Do something to help the Lib-Dems?

    Will Labour benefit by a move back of soft Liberal votes to their normal allegiance as it was a large swing from Labour to Lib-Dem that increased Huhne’s Majority in 2010 as both the Tory and Lib-Dem % increased over their 2005 shares but Labour’s fell by 11.% . Will UKIP intervention and a strong campaign on their part take sufficient votes from the Tory candidate to keep the Lib-Dems in the this seat?

    This is going to be one of the most interesting by-elections for decades and I may well take the short train ride to Eastleigh to do some campaigning.

    Comment by Steve Foley | February 8, 2013 | Reply

    • CORRECTED – Labour’s share is 41%

      Comment by Richard Willis | February 8, 2013 | Reply

  2. 8% lead. Yes that is more in keeping with the current figures and does confirm your assertion that the 15% lead was indeed an outlier. It will still be a very interesting by-election in Eastleigh and it will be useful to compare the shares and movements of votes therein with real electors casting actual votes..

    Comment by Steve Foley | February 8, 2013 | Reply

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