Richard Willis's Blog

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New ICM Poll – Labour Jump to 12% Lead

There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow showing Labour regaining a more significant lead with a 3% gain and the Conservatives down 4%:

         Conservative              29% (down 4%)

                                                    Labour                        41% (up 3%)

                                                    Lib Dem                      13% (down 2%)

                                                    UKIP                              9% (up 3%)

The Labour lead is the biggest – and the Conservative vote-share the smallest – in the polling series since May 2003, during the brief political bounce for Tony Blair which came between the felling of Saddam Hussein’s statue in Baghdad and first stirrings of civil war in Iraq and arguments about dodgy dossiers.

As I continually remind readers, ICM is considered the “Gold Standard” amongst polling aficionados. However, a note of caution is always warranted where there are bigger changes. ICM is usually a poll which shows small changes month on month and therefore we should wait to see whether the trend in this poll is repeated in other polls

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,001 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 8-10 February 2013. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.

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February 11, 2013 - Posted by | Polls |

1 Comment »

  1. Hmm. Is this an outlier? I did not expect this surge in Labour support as I cannot see any reason for it. Indeed if anything I expected a GAIN in Conservative percentage from Cameron’s EU activities.

    Still never look a gift horse as they say.

    Comment by steve foley | February 11, 2013 | Reply


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