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New ComRes Poll – UKIP Jump to 17%

There is a new ComRes online poll published in tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday which shows UKIP up again to 17%, almost double the Lib Dem rating and their highest rating with ComRes:

           Conservative            28% (down 3%)

                                        Labour                      37% (up 1%)

                                        Lib Dem                      9% (up 1%)

                                        UKIP                         17% (up 3%)

In further findings:

The Budget

With the Budget coming up next week, the level of trust in David Cameron and George Osborne on the economy has hit a record low:

I trust David Cameron and George Osborne to make the right decisions about the economy Agree 23% (-6 since last year) Disagree 56% (+7)

But Cameron and Osborne still remain just ahead of the Opposition:

I trust Ed Miliband and Ed Balls to make the right decisions about the economy Agree 20% (+5 since last year) Disagree 55% (-4)

A majority agree that austerity is failing:

The Chancellor George Osborne’s current economic plan is not working Agree 56% Disagree 19%

One in four (26%) Conservative voters agree as do 67% of UKIP voters.

The Chancellor George Osborne’s current economic plan is right for the country in the long term Agree: 24% Disagree: 48%

More Lib Dem voters disagree (39%) than agree (28%).

And more oppose a rise in beer duty than support it:

The Chancellor George Osborne should not increase tax on beer in the Budget next week Agree: 42% Disagree: 36%

Conservative leadership

After a week of speculation about Tory plots against David Cameron’s leadership, the balance of public opinion is against a change of leadership, although there are many don’t knows:

The Conservative Party would have a better chance of winning the next election if it replaced David Cameron as leader

Agree 28% Disagree 38% Don’t know 34%

While 15% current Conservative voters agree, almost half (48%) of UKIP voters agree (24% disagree). This suggests that a change of leader would attract some of the support lost to UKIP although doubtless current Conservative voters’ support could be put in jeopardy by doing so.

Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London, would make a good prime minister

Agree 33% Disagree 42% Don’t know 25%

More Londoners disagree (43%) than agree (36%).

More UKIP voters agree (45%) than disagree (35%) suggesting some support could be won back from UKIP with Boris Johnson as Conservative leader.

Theresa May, the Home Secretary, would make a good prime minister

Agree 19% Disagree 45% Don’t know 36%

Women (18%) are no more likely to agree than men (19%).

Assets and liabilities

ComRes also sought to assess whether leaders were assets or liabilities to their parties by asking whether people had a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the four leading parties and their leaders:

Favourable:

David Cameron 26%

Conservative Party 23%

Ed Miliband 19%

Labour Party 28%

Nick Clegg 13%

Liberal Democrats 16%

Nigel Farage 24%

UKIP 30%

Methodology: ComRes interviewed 2,015 GB adults online 13 – 14 March 2013. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults and by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at www.comres.co.uk.

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March 16, 2013 - Posted by | Polls

1 Comment »

  1. Not yet having gone to France I trust you will permit me to comment on UK Domestic Politics. The surge in UKIP’s share of the Poll is what I would have expected as the effects of their coming a close second in Eastleigh enter the voters’ consciousness. For how long this will sustain I do not know. Apart from the possibility of a by-election in Falkirk if Eric Joyce decides to resign as an MP after his latest exploits and as UKIP are not significant at all in Scotland, any such by-election would be a 2 horse race between the SNP and Labour.

    It will be of interest to see if UKIP’s fortunes translate into gains in the County Council Elections on May 2nd. They DID win a seat from the Conservatives last Thursday on Runnymede Borough Council, significantly better than the Parish or Town Councils they usually win and which are well below the radar for most people interested in Politics, Boroughs, Districts, Cities and Counties are BIG Politics There are of course no County Elections in Reading as there is no longer a Berkshire County Council but will UKIP gain seats from the Conservatives or cause them to lose seats by their intervention? Certainly the Tories did very well in the last County Elections in 2009 and thus will by the normal way of things lose seats back to Labour and possibly to Liib-Dems but will UKIP standing leech sufficient usually Tory votes to cost them additional seats to these other parties over and above the current negative swing as indicated in the Opinion Polls?

    I will no doubt be watching the results on the overseas BBC TV coverage or stream it to my laptop as I am likely to be away at the time.

    Comment by Steve Foley | March 16, 2013 | Reply


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