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New ICM Poll – Labour Lead Drops to Just 6% as Miliband’s Ratings Dive

There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow showing Labour’s opinion poll lead dropping to just 6%:

         Conservative              32% (up 1%)

                                                    Labour                        38% (down 1%)

                                                    Lib Dem                      15% (no change)

                                                    UKIP                              9% (up 2%)

For the Labour Party to be a mere 6% ahead of the Conservatives at this stage of the Parliament is nothing short of dreadful for Labour. With all of the measures that the Government has implemented in the last 18 months and the still struggling economy Labour should expect to be well ahead in all of the polls. Indeed I had expected them to be polling a minimum of 10% more than the Conservatives and regularly hitting leads of 15% or so.

Even more concerning for Labour is the leadership polling figures. A mere 28% in this poll think that Ed Miliband is doing a good job as Labour leader. 51% think he is doing a bad job. Leaving him with a negative rating of -23%. In May 2012 Miliband was rated as -12%; so his position is almost twice as bad as it was then!

By contrast 39% think David Cameron is doing a good job, against 49% who disagree, giving him a negative rating of just -10%. Nick Clegg rates the worst of the three leaders at -29%. The Lib Dem’s participation in the coalition seems to be a drag on the government’s popularity with 51% saying it is doing a bad job against 31% who think it is performing well.

Clearly not all Labour voters think that Miliband is doing a good job, whereas more voters think Cameron is doing a good job than are currently prepared to vote Conservative. As the next General Election approaches this is likely to come more sharply into focus with the effect depressing Labour support and possibly boosting the Conservatives.

The politician who seems to have gone up most in the public’s estimation over the last year is Chancellor George Osborne. After last year’s budget he was at a rating of -25% but has now recovered to -14%, with 32% thinking he is doing a good job against 46% who disagree.

ICM is the most respected pollster according to a vote of readers of Political Betting.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,005 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 12-14 April 2013. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.

ICM-poll-Apr 13


April 15, 2013 - Posted by | Polls |


  1. Let’s see what happens in the County Council Elections on May 2nd. I put more faith i9n those than in Opinion Polls. Will the Tories take a bath? Will Labour do well? What will be the effect of UKIP, not only taking up to about 50 seats themselves but costing the Tories votes and swinging seats and Counties to Labour as a result.

    Comment by steve foley | April 15, 2013 | Reply

  2. UK Polling report say this:

    “The Labour lead of only six points is significantly lower than other polls are showing (indeed, it’s the lowest we’ve seen since February), but this is due to methodological reasons not some sudden Tory recovery. ICM typically show lower Labour leads and higher levels of Lib Dem support than other companies because of the way they reallocate people who say don’t know to the party they say they voted for last time and weight down the answers of people who didn’t vote last time. The figures are, therefore, pretty much in line with what we’d expect, with the changes from last month’s ICM poll all within the normal margin of error.”

    Any reason why you chose not to include this?

    Comment by Phil the Greek | April 16, 2013 | Reply

    • “Reallocate voters who do not say..”. = FIDDLE! I have never had much faith in Opinion Polls since 1970, (Yes I go back that far). The only poll that matters in the en is the REAL one, this time on May 2nd when I expect the Tories to take a bath.

      Comment by Steve Foley | April 17, 2013 | Reply

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