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New ComRes Poll – Labour Fall to 35% as UKIP Rise

There is a new ComRes online poll published in today’s Independent on Sunday which shows UKIP rising as Labour’s lead is cut to just 6%:

           Conservative            29% (down 1%)

                                        Labour                      35% (down 3%)

                                        Lib Dem                      8% (no change)

                                        UKIP                         19% (up 4%)

All recent polls show Labour’s lead falling and UKIP up, which suggests that the proposition that UKIP takes support mainly from the Conservatives may be false.

In further findings:

Leadership

Which of the following party leaders do you think would make the best prime minister?:

David Cameron 32%

Ed Miliband 24%

Nick Clegg 6%

Don’t know 38%

Of UKIP supporters, 29% say David Cameron would make the best prime minister, 6% Ed Miliband, 3% Nick Clegg and 62% don’t know.

David Cameron is turning out to be a good Prime Minister:

_____________Dec 2010   Today

Agree                  38%     26%

Disagree             41%     51%

Net Agree             -3      -25

The proportion who agree, 26%, is the lowest recorded by ComRes.

Ed Miliband is turning out to be a good leader of the Labour Party:

_____________Dec 2010   Today

Agree                 17%          31%

Disagree            32%          42%

Don’t know       50%         27%

Net Agree          -15          -11

The proportion who agree, 31%, is the highest recorded by ComRes.

Two-thirds, 66%, of Labour voters agree that Ed Miliband is turning out to be a good leader of the party, but one in seven, 15%, disagree.

Ed Miliband is likely to be Prime Minister after the next election:

Agree: 31%

Disagree: 37%

Don’t know: 32%

Although 59% of Labour voters agree, 10% disagree and 31% don’t know.

Europe

If a referendum were held on Britain’s membership of the EU, I would vote for Britain to leave the EU:

_____________May 2012   Jan 2013   Today

Agree                    46%            43%          46%

Disagree               30%            31%          24%

Don’t know          23%            26%         30%

Net Agree           +16             +12         +22

UKIP voters are the most likely to agree with this statement (85%). Conservative voters are more likely to agree (49%) than disagree (19%). Labour voters are divided: 37% agree they would vote to leave while 36% disagree. Lib Dems are most pro-EU: 44% disagree and 30% agree.

If some EU powers are restored to the UK then I would vote in a referendum to stay in the EU:

Agree: 43%

Disagree: 24%

Don’t know: 34%

Conservative (54%), Labour (48%) and Lib Dem voters (67%) are all more likely to agree with this statement than disagree. Only UKIP voters are more likely to disagree (46%) than agree (23%).

If a party wants my support at the next general election, it is important to me that they offer a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU:

Agree: 49%

Disagree: 27%

Don’t know: 24%

Older voters are more likely to agree with this statement than younger voters. Two-thirds (67%) of those aged 65 and over agree compared to just a third (35%) of those aged 18-24. Conservative voters support the Prime Minister’s position with more than half (56%) saying that they agree compared with 23% that disagree. Labour voters are divided on this issue, 36% agree whilst 39% disagree. Of UKIP voters, 87% agree and only 6% disagree.

The Conservative Party is more divided over Europe now than it was when John Major was Prime Minister:

Agree: 57%

Disagree: 14%

Don’t know: 29%

Even Conservative voters are more likely to agree (43%) than disagree (26%). Three-quarters (74%) of UKIP voters agree.

David Cameron has the authority over his party that he needs to be an effective Prime Minister:

Agree: 28%

Disagree: 48%

Don’t know: 24%

Two-thirds of UKIP voters (65%) disagree with this statement as do one in five (18%) current Conservative voters.

Methodology: ComRes interviewed 1,001 GB adults online 15 – 16 May 2013. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults and by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at www.comres.co.uk.

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May 19, 2013 - Posted by | Polls

2 Comments »

  1. Perhaps David Cameron’s best tactic would be to set out exactly how our relationship with the EU must change and base a referendum question on ‘ If the EU don’t agree with to meet these conditions then we shall leave’. He could do that quickly and it would create a position of strength in negotiations. I wonder if the EU would want us to leave, after all our financial contribution is considerable.

    Comment by Howard Thomas | May 19, 2013 | Reply

    • I agree!

      Comment by Richard Willis | May 19, 2013 | Reply


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