Richard Willis's Blog

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New YouGov Poll – The Gap Closes to Just 5%

There is a new YouGov poll in today’s Sunday Times newspaper showing Labour’s lead falling to just 5%:

                   Conservative                33% (no change)

                   Labour                          38% (down 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                        11% (up 1%)

                                                     UKIP                             11% (down 2%)

Yesterday’s 6% lead was the lowest with YouGov for some time but today’s 5% lead is the lowest since at least November last year. Considering that George Osborne has just revealed £11.5bn cuts to future expenditure plans and Labour has recently committed to match Conservative spending plans, it is amazing that the Opposition can only garner a lead of 5% at this stage of the Parliament.

In the detail of the poll is the finding that the Conservatives lead Labour by 37% to 31% amongst the 18-24 age group. This is becoming a reasonably consistent finding in recent polls and is supported by our experience locally which has seen a considerable number of new younger members joining the party.

It is also noteworthy that the recent UKIP slide and slight Lib Dem improvement now sees them on even terms at 11% each.

Changes shown are compared to the last YouGov poll I reported on 28 June.

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June 30, 2013 - Posted by | Polls |

8 Comments »

  1. Why does Willis not comment on the Observer Poll which gives Labour a 10% lead. Other opinion polls give Labour a lead of up to 10% amongst the under 25s. This is yet another attempt by media analysts to gave a distorted view of public opinion. I am afraid that Richard Willis, like Kellner, is part of a media conspiracy to give a boost to anti-Labour and Blairite opinion. The Kellner’s and Willis’s of this world should be ashamed of themselves.

    Comment by sean connor | June 30, 2013 | Reply

    • Sean – I did not post the Opinium poll because I had not seen it but Opinium’s credibility is nowhere near as good as YouGov’s or ICM’s. To suggest that Peter Kellner is part of some conspiracy to boost “anti-Labour” feeling is derisory. You should do some research and find that some polls have far more credibility than others. I report good and bad for the Conservatives but the simple fact remains that Labour should be far ahead of a mid-term Government implementing austerity. Their lead of 5-10% is poor compared to other mid-term oppositions.

      Comment by Richard Willis | June 30, 2013 | Reply

  2. You are entitled to your view. However, as a graduate in politics and history with a BA and MA I am not to illiterate when it comes to politics. Let me put it a simple way. Without the manipulation of public opinion it is highly unlikely that we would ever have a Tory government. Now, there is another factor you fail to mention, that is that the political geography is much more in Labour’s favour than the Tories. In addition if the Tories could not win an election outright in 2010 when the previous Labour government was so unpopular, then it is highly unlikely that they will do as well in 2015.
    ..If the Labour Party was only one pre cent ahead of the Tories in 2015, then they would have a majority of about 8 to 10 seats. If, on the other hand, the Tories finish 2 per cent in front of Labour, then they would still have less seats than the than Labour. Last week, on Thursday, YouGov had a poll which gave Labour an 11 per cent lead, this received very little publicity, on Friday YouGov gave Labour a 6 per cent lead and it was all over the media. All governments have an ideology and they use the press and the Television to put that forward. You Tories don’t deserve to win anything. You have allowed the Bankers to embezzle billions of pounds off their customers to fund their illicit dealing in the land and property markets. Osborne, Clegg, and Cameron have punished the working poor, the disabled and the unemployed and made them pay for the crimes of the financial capitalists. The less fortunate have been criminalised by Osborne and the coalition This disgraceful government is the worst in my 73 years. The only trouble is that Labour is a disgrace to the name. Just what has happened to the party of Attlee, Bevan, Wilson, Castle and Ben. Miliband and Balls seem frightened of their own shadow, this is shameful..

    Comment by sean connor | June 30, 2013 | Reply

    • Im not sure that getting into a willy waving contest of “my qualification is bigger than your qualification” is a very mature way of conducting an argument!

      However, on the facts you are simply wrong. It was Gordon Brown and Labour that allowed bankers to embezzle billions when Brown loosened the regulatory regime for the banks. It is the Conservatives that are sorting out Labour’s mess because in our democracy they got more votes and seats than Labour. It is also the Conservatives and Lib Dems who have lifted the lowest paid out of income tax altogether and given the money to allow Councils to freeze Council Tax.

      The most disgraceful government since the second world war was Gordon Brown’s from 2007 to 2010, closely followed by Blair from 1997-2007. In my view it is Labour which should never be allowed to govern this country again as they always screw up the economy. But ultimately that is a decision for the British electorate.

      Comment by Richard Willis | June 30, 2013 | Reply

  3. In the latest local elections last Thursday, actual votes, the % for Tory about was 26.8 and UKIP on 26.2. Labour I think on 32. Polls seem to be good at underestimating our support. In some, and I think YouGov is one, UKIP are not even offered as a first choise alternative. Sean is a bit over the top and very wrong about Labour but he has a point. Polls do manipulate opinion and given the other dirty tricks mainstream politicians are quite happy to employ, it does make people wonder just where they would stop

    Comment by Paul Icini | July 1, 2013 | Reply

  4. I think that Labour should have regulated the banks more. However, Mr Willis seems to forget that it was Cameron and the Tories who were screaming for an even lighter touch on the banks than that imposed by Labour. This is a global crisis, not a national one. Nobody forced the banks and finance companies to speculate on a land and property market that was already over priced. It was that speculation which, as it did in 1929, caused the global depression. the analysis by Mr Willis is totally wrong. His analysis suggests that Labour was responsible for the deficits in Greece, Spain, the Republic of Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus and Iceland. Brown nationalised those banks which were in danger. Socialism, it seems is alright for the bankers, but not for mass of the people.
    ..This government is vicious. Osborne attacks the working poor who are far worse off, even taking into account the lifting of that tax allowances. Millions are worse off because of the coalition’s cuts, the disabled, and the unemployed are treated as criminals by Osborne. These toffs don’t know the first thing about fairness. I remember Cameron, Osborne and Johnson running round Oxford smashing restaurants and pubs up. They behave exactly the same in Government. This time its the welfare state and the NHS that they are smashing up. My criticism of Labour is justified. Miliband and Balls have agreed to the cuts and the Tory agenda, just as Blair did. So its the Greens or Respect for me, and many other former Labour supporters I know.

    Comment by sean connor | July 1, 2013 | Reply

    • Mr Connor clearly lives in a fantasy world where everything the “evil coalition” does should be condemned and everything Labour did was also the fault of the Conservatives! Labour was in change when the regulation of the finance sector was loosened, Labour was in charge when Gordon Brown was Chancellor and ran deficits in the times of boom, Labour was in charge when the recession started! It was also Labour which raised £5bn annually from pensions, gave pensioners an insulting 75p increase, abolished the 10p tax rate, doubled Council Tax, sold much of our gold reserves at rock bottom prices, and got this country into a deficit the like of which had never been seen before. Mr Connor may like the Greens or Respect, neither of whom have the remotest chance of forming a Government, but the choice at the next election will be between David Cameron and Ed Miliband (if he lasts that long)!

      Comment by Richard Willis | July 1, 2013 | Reply

  5. Who, Cameron or Miliband?…………….or both?

    Comment by Howard Thomas | July 8, 2013 | Reply


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