Richard Willis's Blog

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New ICM Poll – Tories Draw Level with Labour as UKIP Falls

There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow showing the Conservatives surging 7% to draw level with Labour, largely at the expense of UKIP:

         Conservative              36% (up 7%)

                                                    Labour                        36% (no change)

                                                    Lib Dem                      13% (up 1%)

                                                    UKIP                              7% (down 5%)

This is the best Conservative showing in ICM’s monthly polls since March 2012.

ICM is considered the “gold standard” amongst pollsters and I have therefore always given a lot more weight to their findings alongside YouGov.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,003 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 12-14 July 2013. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.


July 15, 2013 - Posted by | Polls |


  1. Yet 3 polls last night had UKIP on 18%, 19% & 20% accordingly. Neither of the pollsters you mentioned prompt UKIP. Yet the ones that prompt them still show their support is holding.

    Of course you will support ICM if they give you the results you want to hear.

    The difference in UKIP support between prompters and non prompters is becoming a farce.

    Comment by Mark Thompson | July 15, 2013 | Reply

    • Mark – don’t be so facile! ICM is universally recognised as the most consistently credible pollster! It is not known as the “gold standard” by those who bet on polls for nothing. The like of Survation and Opinium have yet to earn a reputation of accuracy and reliability to match ICM.

      Comment by Richard Willis | July 15, 2013 | Reply

  2. I notice you very selectively only chose to report the ICM poll and not the Populus one that came out at the same time giving Labour a 7 point lead at 38% to the Tories 31%. Another point you failed to mention is that ICM consistently have UKIP at much lower levels than all of the other pollsters and they were ridiculed following the EU elections in 2009 when they predicted a 10% share for UKIP and in fact they received 16.5%.

    Comment by Phil the Greek | July 16, 2013 | Reply

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