Richard Willis's Blog

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New ICM Poll – Labour Lead by Just 3% as Economic Confidence Grows

There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow showing the Conservatives just 3% behind Labour with UKIP recovering some of the losses shown in last month’s ICM poll:

         Conservative              32% (down 4%)

                                                    Labour                        35% (down 1%)

                                                    Lib Dem                      14% (up 1%)

                                                    UKIP                             10% (up 3%)

As the Guardian report says:

“A growing proportion of the public believe David Cameron and George Osborne are more capable of managing the economy than their Labour rivals, according to the latest ICM poll for the Guardian.

The proportion of people prepared to back the Tory team for economic competence has soared to 40% from 28% in June. The findings will make grim post-holiday reading for the Labour leader, Ed Miliband, who along with shadow chancellor Ed Balls has seen a much smaller rise in credibility, with 24% of the public preferring them compared with 19% two months ago.”

This is a very good poll for the Conservatives although not quite as good as last month’s level pegging. That now looks like an outlier but this ICM poll is consistent with other pollsters in the last month or so in showing a significant narrowing of the gap between the Conservatives and Labour.

ICM is considered the “gold standard” amongst pollsters and I have therefore always given a lot more weight to their findings alongside YouGov.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,001 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 9-11 August 2013. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.

ICM_Poll_Aug 13


August 12, 2013 - Posted by | Polls |

1 Comment »

  1. Kind of interesting to step back a little and consider that just one third of all voters would be happy to vote for either of the parties that would hope to form a government after the next election. I wonder how many among that one third would only vote that way purely to keep the other lot out!

    Comment by Howard Thomas | August 14, 2013 | Reply

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