Richard Willis's Blog

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New YouGov Poll – Labour’s Lead Has Almost Gone!

There is a new YouGov poll in tomorrow’s Sun newspaper showing Labour’s lead down to just 2%:

                   Conservative                36% (up 2%)

                   Labour                          38% (down 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                          8% (down 2%)

                                                     UKIP                             11% (no change)

This is the lowest YouGov lead for Labour since the September party conferences. Poll leads go up and down but the general trend for Labour at present is down.

The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll which I reported on 8 December.

December 16, 2013 Posted by | Polls | , | 5 Comments

Berkshire Recycling Rates for 2012/13

For the last few years I have published the DEFRA statistics on local authority recycling rates and here they are once again this year.

DEFRA issued its data tables for 2012/13 in November and yet again Reading languishes near the bottom of the local table for Berkshire:

West Berkshire – 50% (11/12 – 46.2%)

Windsor & Maid – 46% (11/12 – 43.2%)

Wokingham – 41% (11/12 – 42.6%)

Bracknell Forest – 38% (11/12 – 42.5%)

Reading – 36% (11/12 – 36.8%)

Slough – 30% (11/12 – 30.7%)

Over the last year Reading saw a small slide in its performance but West Berkshire and Windsor & Maidenhead improved their already good performance. So Reading was yet again second from the bottom in 2012/13. Compare that with our immediate neighbour to the north:

South Oxfordshire – 65% (11/12 – 67.9%)

Reading clearly still has a very long way to go to match the performance of the best of the other (Conservative controlled) Berkshire authorities and even further to catch up with (Conservative controlled) South Oxfordshire.

December 15, 2013 Posted by | Local | | Leave a comment

New Ipsos MORI Poll – Conservatives Close the Gap to 4%

There is a new Ipsos MORI poll reported today for the London Evening Standard showing the Conservatives closing the gap with Labour:

      Conservative               33% (up 1%)

                                                        Labour                         37% (down 1%)

                                                        Lib Dem                         9% (up 1%)

                                                        UKIP                              10% (up 2%)

MORI does have a reputation as being somewhat erratic month on month but this poll is consistent with other recent polls in showing a narrowing of Labour’s lead.

In further findings:

Satisfaction has risen for David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage, but not for Ed Miliband:

  • Mr Miliband has a net rating (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) of -25, steady from -23 last month. 29% are satisfied with his performance as Labour leader, while 54% are dissatisfied. Mr Miliband’s net rating among Labour supporters is +6.
  • While still less popular than Mr Miliband, Nick Clegg has, in contrast, seen a big rise from a net rating of -43 last month to -29 this month; 28% are satisfied with his performance as Deputy Prime Minister, 57% dissatisfied. Among Lib Dems his net rating is +14.
  • David Cameron has a net rating of -13, his highest since March 2012. 39% are satisfied with his performance as Prime Minister, his highest score since January 2012, while 52% are dissatisfied. Among Conservative supporters his net rating is at +61.
  • Nigel Farage’s net rating is at -5, up from -13 last month; 33% are satisfied in his performance as UKIP leader, with 38% dissatisfied. Among UKIP supporters his net rating is at +81.
  • Net satisfaction in the performance of the government is at -26, from -31 last month, with 32% satisfied and 58% dissatisfied. Among Conservatives and Lib Dems, its net satisfaction rating is at +31.

Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,011 aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 7-9 December 2013.

MORI Dec 13

December 13, 2013 Posted by | Polls | | Leave a comment

New ICM Poll – Conservatives Cut Labour’s Lead to 5%

There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow showing the Conservatives cutting the 8% lead Labour enjoyed last month back to just 5% this month:

         Conservative              32% (up 2%)

                                                    Labour                        37% (down 1%)

                                                    Lib Dem                      12% (down 1%)

                                                    UKIP                               9% (down 1%)

With the recovery gathering pace, David Cameron and George Osborne retain their solid lead over Ed Miliband and the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls, as the people most trusted to manage the economy properly, with 39% backing the Conservative team to handle the economy, compared with just 23% who side with Labour’s two Eds.

Readers are reminded that ICM is considered the “gold standard” amongst pollsters and I have therefore always given a lot more weight to their findings alongside YouGov.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,001 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 6-8 December 2013. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.

ICM Poll - Dec 13

December 9, 2013 Posted by | Polls | , | 2 Comments

New YouGov Poll – Labour’s Lead Slashed to 5%

There is a new YouGov poll in today’s Sunday Times showing Labour’s lead cut to 5%:

                   Conservative                34% (up 5%)

                   Labour                          39% (down 2%)

                                                     Lib Dem                        10% (up 1%)

                                                     UKIP                             11% (down 3%)

YouGov polls have been jumping around a bit over the last few weeks. On Friday we saw a poll giving Labour a 12% lead but that was conducted before the Autumn Statement when Labour’s economic weaknesses were so obviously exposed. This poll suggests that the Conservatives are performing much better now against Labour in the Midlands and London, where many of the marginal seats are to be found.

The poll above is compared with Friday’s YouGov which showed Labour having a 12% lead. This was clearly an outlier.

December 8, 2013 Posted by | Polls | , | 3 Comments