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New ICM Poll – Labour Start 2014 With a Lead of Just 3%

There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow showing Labour starting 2014 with a lead of just 3% after leading by 5% last month:

         Conservative              32% (no change)

                                                    Labour                        35% (down 2%)

                                                    Lib Dem                      14% (up 2%)

                                                    UKIP                             10% (up 1%)

The Guardian report links Labour’s sinking support to the rise in economic confidence. In this poll the Labour drop of 2% is matched by a rise in Lib Dem support of the same amount. It will be interesting to see whether a rise in Lib Dem support shows up in other polls at Labour’s expense. This could be deadly for Ed Miliband’s hopes of winning next year!

It is worth noting that Labour began 2013 with an ICM lead of 5%, with 38% against a Conservative share of 33%. In the YouGov polls so far this year Labour’s lead has varied between 5% and 9%, so ICM is showing a significantly worse position.

Readers are reminded that ICM is considered the “gold standard” amongst pollsters and I have therefore always given a lot more weight to their findings alongside YouGov.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,005 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 10-12 January 2014. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.

ICM Pol - Jan 14

 

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January 13, 2014 - Posted by | Polls | ,

2 Comments »

  1. There you go again clutching at straws. Sunday’s YouGov poll, which you consider reliable, has Labour at 9% in front. A mean average has Labour over 6% in front, Labour’s poll reading averages at about 37.5%, this means that you Tories have to poll in the low 40% to even be the largest party. You will not get that. The Tories poll between 30 -34%. You Tories cannot win an election in the low 30 per cents. Labour, on the other hand, can win an election with around 35% of the vote. Once again, you only appear when you get a poll that gives a low Labour lead. Richard, you Tories are a party of the South, you cannot win seats anywhere else in sufficient numbers to give your party any hope of a victory.

    Comment by sean connor | January 13, 2014 | Reply

    • I am amused by the fact that you cannot see the facts for your spin. ICM is the recognised “gold standard” of pollsters and I therefore post their single monthly poll WHATEVER it shows. YouGov is a very good pollster and today they show Labour’s lead at just 5%. So we have ICM and YouGov essentially showing the same; a small Labour lead which will melt away and likely be reversed by the time of the next General Election.
      The Conservatives are a party of the South, the Midlands, the North and Wales. We do have a problem in Scotland but then Labour has a problem in the South, where most of the seats are to be found.

      Do keep up your deluded self confidence in Labour’s certainty to win. It will be your downfall!

      Comment by Richard Willis | January 14, 2014 | Reply


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