New ICM Poll – Labour Start 2014 With a Lead of Just 3%
There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow showing Labour starting 2014 with a lead of just 3% after leading by 5% last month:
Conservative 32% (no change)
Labour 35% (down 2%)
Lib Dem 14% (up 2%)
UKIP 10% (up 1%)
The Guardian report links Labour’s sinking support to the rise in economic confidence. In this poll the Labour drop of 2% is matched by a rise in Lib Dem support of the same amount. It will be interesting to see whether a rise in Lib Dem support shows up in other polls at Labour’s expense. This could be deadly for Ed Miliband’s hopes of winning next year!
It is worth noting that Labour began 2013 with an ICM lead of 5%, with 38% against a Conservative share of 33%. In the YouGov polls so far this year Labour’s lead has varied between 5% and 9%, so ICM is showing a significantly worse position.
Readers are reminded that ICM is considered the “gold standard” amongst pollsters and I have therefore always given a lot more weight to their findings alongside YouGov.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,005 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 10-12 January 2014. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.