There is a new ComRes online poll published tonight for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday which shows UKIP slipping back badly:
Conservative 32% (up 2%)
Labour 37% (up 2%)
Lib Dem 9% (up 1%)
UKIP 15% (down 4%)
Labour’s lead is unchanged at 5%.
In further findings:
“Please indicate whether you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following political leaders and parties…” Percentage saying “favourable” (change since last month, or *change since June 2013).
Boris Johnson 36% -8*
Labour Party 31% +5
David Cameron 31% +4
Conservative Party 28% +3
UKIP 24% -3 Green Party 23% -5*
Ed Miliband 22% +4
Nigel Farage 20% -2
George Osborne 17% +3*
Liberal Democrats 17% +3
Ed Balls 14% -1*
Nick Clegg 13% (0)
The recent floods have made me more convinced that human-made climate change is happening: Agree 48% Disagree 30%
I feel the Government is beginning to get a grip on the flooding situation in Britain: Agree 23% Disagree 59%
Half (50%) of UKIP voters disagree that the recent floods have made them more convinced that human-made climate change is happening, compared with 37% of Conservative voters, 24% of Labour voters and 17% of Liberal Democrat voters.
Conservative voters are divided about whether the Government is getting a grip on the flooding situation in Britain – 40% think it is, 37% think it is not. Labour (74%) and UKIP (73%) voters are the most likely to disagree that the Government is getting a grip.
Nearly two thirds of the people living in the South West (65%), where the floods started, disagree that the Government is getting a grip on the floods. Just 16% agree that it is.
Most people think that the former Immigration Minister, who resigned last weekend, acted honourably and that he deserves little sympathy.
Ex-Immigration Minister, Mark Harper, acted honourably by resigning when it emerged that he was hiring an illegal immigrant as his cleaner: Agree 64% Disagree 15%
Ex-Immigration Minister, Mark Harper, should receive little sympathy for resigning when it emerged that he was hiring an illegal immigrant as his cleaner: Agree 59% Disagree 22%
Public service reform
Politicians should stop trying to reform schools and the NHS: Agree 41% Disagree 39%
Schools and hospitals need to be reformed if high standards are to be achieved or maintained: Agree 62% Disagree 19%
Britain should have boycotted the Winter Olympic Games in protest against the recent anti-gay propaganda laws passed in Russia: Agree 17% Disagree 62%
Political rows like the criticism of Russia for its anti-gay propaganda laws should be kept out of sports events like the Sochi Winter Olympics: Agree 57% Disagree 27%
A quarter of 18-24 year olds (27%) think that Britain should have boycotted the Winter Olympic Games, compared with 9% people aged 65 and over. Of people aged 65 and over, 70% think that political rows should be kept out of sports events, compared with 46% of those aged 18-24.
Methodology: ComRes interviewed 2,031 GB adults online on 12-13 February 2014. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults and by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at www.comres.co.uk.
This is a clip from the run up to the 2010 General Election but anyone tempted to vote Labour should watch it. Conservatives should keep posting it!
Note the figure of Ed Balls who was a major figure in the Blair/Brown regimes.
It is a record to be profoundly ashamed of!
There is a new Populus poll out today which shows Labour’s lead over the Conservatives being cut to a mere 2%:
Conservative 34% (up 1%)
Labour 36% (no change)
Lib Dem 11% (up 2%)
UKIP 12% (down 3%)
Amongst men the Conservatives have a 2% lead with 36% to Labour’s 34%. With women Labour leads by 38% to 31%.
There is a pretty consistent message coming from different pollsters at present suggesting that Labour enjoys a fragile lead which could easily dissipate in the heat of a General Election campaign. Also of interest is the decline in UKIP support in the last month or so.
Populus interviewed a random sample of 2013 adults online between 7th-9th February 2014. Interviews were conducted across Great Britain and the results have been weighted to be representative of all British adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow showing Labour just 4% ahead in Westminster voting intentions:
Conservative 34% (up 2%)
Labour 38% (up 3%)
Lib Dem 10% (down 4%)
UKIP 11% (up 1%)
This ICM poll is almost identical to Sunday’s YouGov poll in the Sunday Times. We therefore have the two most reliable pollsters in virtually complete agreement! Whilst Labour will be pleased to be up 3% this month it still leaves them just 4% ahead of the Conservatives who are up 2%.
The poll findings also include a survey of voting intention for the European Parliament elections in May. Surprisingly this shows UKIP in third place behind the Conservatives and Labour. The poll finds that Labour leads with 35%, the Conservatives are on 25%, UKIP on 20%, the Lib Dems on 9% and the Greens on 7%. Many commentators had suggested that UKIP could end up topping the Euro ballot.
Readers are reminded that ICM is considered the “gold standard” amongst pollsters and I have therefore always given a lot more weight to their findings alongside YouGov.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,002 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 7-9 Febrary 2014. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.
There is a new YouGov poll in today’s Sunday Times showing Labour’s lead at 4%:
Conservative 35% (no change)
Labour 39% (up 1%)
Lib Dem 10% (no change)
UKIP 10% (down 1%)
The details of the poll contain several interesting nuggets. The Conservatives lead Labour by 3% amongst men (37-34) but are 10% behind among women (33-43). The Conservatives also lead Labour by 3% (38-35) in the crucial swing Midlands/Wales region. There is no doubt that the Labour lead is narrowing, a point emphasised by the change of Populus methodology which has seen Labour’s lead drop from the recent 7-10% level to around 3%.
For those readers who doubt Labour’s downward trajectory I suggest you read this.
The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll I reported on 29 January.
There is a new Ipsos MORI poll reported today for the London Evening Standard showing the Conservatives closing the gap with Labour:
Conservative 31% (up 1%)
Labour 38% (down 1%)
Lib Dem 12% (down 1%)
UKIP 10% (down 1%)
MORI does have a reputation as being somewhat erratic month on month but this poll is consistent with other recent polls in showing a narrowing of Labour’s lead. However, it is unusual in that it shows UKIP back in fourth place behind the Lib Dems.
In further findings:
This optimism appears to have fed into David Cameron’s ratings on the economy and unemployment. Four in ten (42%) now trust Cameron more than the other party leaders to deal with managing the economy, compared to 20% trusting Ed Miliband, 5% Clegg and 3% Farage. This increases his lead over Miliband to 22 points from 14 points in May last year.
David Cameron now also has a 5 point lead over Ed Miliband on being trusted to deal with unemployment, an area where the two men were neck-and-neck last year. 33% now trust Cameron to deal with unemployment compared with 28% for Miliband and 6% and 4% respectively for Clegg and Farage. (In May 2013, 29% chose Cameron and 31% Miliband.)
However, Ed Miliband is trusted by more Britons to deal with regulation of banks and bankers bonuses: 29% trust Miliband, 21% Cameron, 10% Clegg and 6% Nigel Farage.
When it comes to tax policy, Labour’s 50p tax appears to be the most popular rate of taxing those earning over £150,000 a year in a choice between 50p, 45p and 40p (although it does not have majority support). Four in ten (41%) believe the higher rate of tax should be 50p, 27% believe it should be 45p and 24% believe it should be 40p.
Interestingly, associating the suggested tax levels with those who propose them (Ed Balls, George Osborne and Boris Johnson) makes no difference to the support for that rate of tax. 40% support Ed Balls’ policy of 50p in the pound, 28% support George Osborne’s policy of 45p and 26% support Boris Johnson’s policy of 40p. This may reflect that these policies are already closely associated with each party. (The question was asked as a split sample with half of respondents given just the 50p, 45p and 40p options, while the other half of respondents were told whose policy it is).
On the issue of immigration – now joint top in the Ipsos MORI Issues Index – David Cameron is more trusted than the other leaders – but only slightly more, and more people are now saying “none of them” than last year. 23% trust Cameron most to deal with immigration (down from 28% in May 2013), 20% trust Nigel Farage (down from 25%), 19% Ed Miliband and 8% Nick Clegg (both up 2 points). The increase for those saying “none” is 5 points to 18%.
After a number of weeks of negative stories about Liberal Democrat and UKIP politicians this poll finds that Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage are less trusted than David Cameron and Ed Miliband to look after the interests of women and handle disagreements within their party. Just 12% trust Nick Clegg the most to look after the interests of women and 3% trust Nigel Farage the most. Ed Miliband is seen as the most trustworthy on this issue with 28% and 21% chose David Cameron. Women are much more likely to say none of the above (21% compared to 9% of men).
Cameron is the most trusted to handle disagreements within his party (29%), followed by 22% for Miliband; but just 7% and 8% trust Clegg and Farage respectively, to sort out internal party disagreements.
Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,011 aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 1-3 February 2014.
Reading Conservatives have announced the first of their candidates for the 22 May local elections.
Conservative Group Leader Cllr Jeanette Skeats said, “I am proud to have an excellent team of candidates who will stand up for the people of their wards and ensure that our Conservative message gets across. I am delighted to have such a diverse group of candidates representing all people in Reading. The experience of our sitting and former Councillors will be complemented by the fresh ideas and enthusiasm of the new candidates. We will shortly release details of our candidates for the remaining wards and our manifesto for the Borough Council elections.”
Two sitting Councillors, Andrew Cumpsty (Caversham) and David Stevens (Thames), have been reselected to contest the seats they have held since they were first elected to Reading Borough Council in 2004.
Andrew Cumpsty (left) is the Conservative Group spokesman for Culture and Sport, and was Leader of the Council during the 2010/11 Council year. He brought together a coalition with the Lib Dems which resulted in the first non-Labour run Council in Reading for more than 20 years. Andrew lives in Caversham and runs his own Reading-based consultancy company.
Andrew said, “Over the past 10 years, as a Caversham resident, it has been a huge privilege to serve the residents of Caversham Ward as Councillor. From fighting to get potholes repaired to trying to stop the Labour Council from closing the Arthur Clark care home; from supporting the development of Caversham Children’s centre, to holding monthly advice surgeries all around Caversham; from opposing the Labour run Council’s plans to concrete over parts of Christchurch Meadows, to supporting Caversham’s businesses and from fighting to secure funding for the redevelopment of central Caversham to handling 100s of residents problems over the last decade, I believe that I have given residents good service and consistently fought for our patch.
This track record of delivering for Caversham and its residents and my desire to continue serving as a local Caversham Ward Councillor, is why I ask for residents’ support on the 22nd May at the local elections. I promise to continue delivering this high level of service to my community and support for my residents.”
David Stevens (left) is the Conservative Group spokesman for Finance and Property, a portfolio which he held during the Conservative-led coalition administration. He chairs the Council’s influential Audit and Governance Committee which oversee all spending by the borough. He is also the chairman of the Conservative councillor group. David is a trustee of the Berkshire Maestros – the organisation that teaches music to children. He is also co-ordinating the various organisations in Reading that will be commemorating the First World War.
David lives in Reading with his wife and three children. A keen cyclist, he also commutes by train to work in London where he is works for a large firm of accountants.
Paul Carnell (right) has been selected to contest Church ward following the decision of existing Councillor and former Group Leader Tim Harris to stand down. Paul works as a plumber and lives in the ward just off Whitley Wood Road. Since moving to Reading a few years ago Paul has become increasingly concerned about local issues. The state of the roads, anti social behaviour and the Shinfield Road traffic lights all concern Church Ward. Paul regularly attends a local church and has a keen interest in sport.
Tom Steele has been selected to contest the Kentwood ward in which he lives and which he represented from 2007 until 2011. Tom was Deputy Leader of the Conservative Group from 2008 to 2011.
Rob Vickers (left) has been chosen to stand again in Tilehurst Ward which he contested in 2012 and which is already represented by his wife Sandra. Rob is a former Trade Union official and local businessman who was born in Reading and has lived here all his life; the last 40 years in Tilehurst! He has witnessed many changes to this town and believes that his local experience would benefit the people of Tilehurst and the town.
Simon Robinson (right) has been chosen to contest Peppard ward. Simon is 49 and has lived in Caversham Park Village with his wife and family for the last 8 years. He works in the IT industry as a home-based Senior Project Manager and Corporate Learning Consultant helping organisations grow and achieve performance improvements though the application of Learning Technologies.
Imraan Ishtiaq has been selected to stand for Battle ward once again. Imraan has lived in the Reading area most of his life and attended local schools in Battle and Tilehurst. Imraan has stood twice before for Battle ward, taking up hundreds of cases for local people and reducing Labour’s majority each time.
Helen Hopper (left) has been selected to contest Redlands Ward. Helen lives in East Reading with her husband Ed (Conservative Councillor for Thames Ward) and their two children. Helen is an active member of the congregation of St. Luke’s with St. Bartholomew’s, regularly teaching Sunday School for under 10’s. Helen has worked in Reading since 2000 and has a particular interest in sustainable business and would work to see Reading’s economic future safeguarded.
On Saturday Rob Wilson MP met with Mr Karim Rashid, the new owner of the precinct and car park. They were joined by Conservative Peppard Ward Councillors Richard Willis and Jane Stanford-Beale, together with Mr Simon Watson, the Budgens’ store manager. They walked around the car park and the shops while Mr Rashid explained his plans for the car park. The plans include improved drainage, substantial resurfacing, removal of the cobbled areas to create more parking bays, relining of the bays, and clearer and wider disabled parking bays. The work starts on Monday 3 February and is expected to take up to two weeks.
Mr Rashid explained that, contrary to previous suggestions, he was not planning to introduce a system of pay and display. Barriers will be put in front of the shops to protect the paving slabs and ensure that delivery vehicles use the rear access to the shops.
Rob said “I am delighted to see these works getting under way. Many constituents have written to me about the state of car park and I know that before Mr Rashid bought the rights to the car park only occasional patching was undertaken. Substantial repairs to the car park have been hard to achieve because of the high cost to the other shopkeepers. I am pleased that Mr Rashid has now found a local contractor prepared to complete the works at an affordable cost to the smaller shopkeepers.”
Cllr Richard Willis said “My colleague Jane and I have been keen to see a proper resurfacing of the car park in a way which is affordable for the local shopkeepers. The state of the car park has been an issue which has been regularly raised with us. I am sure that local residents and other shoppers will be happy to put up with the short-term inconvenience of these much needed repairs to get this free car park back up and running.”
Cllr Jane Stanford-Beale said, “This is great news. I have had many meetings with the shopkeepers to try to get some progress and am pleased that Mr Rashid has found a solution which is actually going ahead.”
Cllr Richard Willis agreed to take up the issue of the potholes in the Council owned Cavendish Road behind the shops. The road will be getting more use when the bollards in front of the shops are introduced.