New Ipsos MORI Poll – Labour 7% Ahead
There is a new Ipsos MORI poll reported today for the London Evening Standard showing the Conservatives closing the gap with Labour:
Conservative 31% (up 1%)
Labour 38% (down 1%)
Lib Dem 12% (down 1%)
UKIP 10% (down 1%)
MORI does have a reputation as being somewhat erratic month on month but this poll is consistent with other recent polls in showing a narrowing of Labour’s lead. However, it is unusual in that it shows UKIP back in fourth place behind the Lib Dems.
In further findings:
This optimism appears to have fed into David Cameron’s ratings on the economy and unemployment. Four in ten (42%) now trust Cameron more than the other party leaders to deal with managing the economy, compared to 20% trusting Ed Miliband, 5% Clegg and 3% Farage. This increases his lead over Miliband to 22 points from 14 points in May last year.
David Cameron now also has a 5 point lead over Ed Miliband on being trusted to deal with unemployment, an area where the two men were neck-and-neck last year. 33% now trust Cameron to deal with unemployment compared with 28% for Miliband and 6% and 4% respectively for Clegg and Farage. (In May 2013, 29% chose Cameron and 31% Miliband.)
However, Ed Miliband is trusted by more Britons to deal with regulation of banks and bankers bonuses: 29% trust Miliband, 21% Cameron, 10% Clegg and 6% Nigel Farage.
When it comes to tax policy, Labour’s 50p tax appears to be the most popular rate of taxing those earning over £150,000 a year in a choice between 50p, 45p and 40p (although it does not have majority support). Four in ten (41%) believe the higher rate of tax should be 50p, 27% believe it should be 45p and 24% believe it should be 40p.
Interestingly, associating the suggested tax levels with those who propose them (Ed Balls, George Osborne and Boris Johnson) makes no difference to the support for that rate of tax. 40% support Ed Balls’ policy of 50p in the pound, 28% support George Osborne’s policy of 45p and 26% support Boris Johnson’s policy of 40p. This may reflect that these policies are already closely associated with each party. (The question was asked as a split sample with half of respondents given just the 50p, 45p and 40p options, while the other half of respondents were told whose policy it is).
On the issue of immigration – now joint top in the Ipsos MORI Issues Index – David Cameron is more trusted than the other leaders – but only slightly more, and more people are now saying “none of them” than last year. 23% trust Cameron most to deal with immigration (down from 28% in May 2013), 20% trust Nigel Farage (down from 25%), 19% Ed Miliband and 8% Nick Clegg (both up 2 points). The increase for those saying “none” is 5 points to 18%.
After a number of weeks of negative stories about Liberal Democrat and UKIP politicians this poll finds that Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage are less trusted than David Cameron and Ed Miliband to look after the interests of women and handle disagreements within their party. Just 12% trust Nick Clegg the most to look after the interests of women and 3% trust Nigel Farage the most. Ed Miliband is seen as the most trustworthy on this issue with 28% and 21% chose David Cameron. Women are much more likely to say none of the above (21% compared to 9% of men).
Cameron is the most trusted to handle disagreements within his party (29%), followed by 22% for Miliband; but just 7% and 8% trust Clegg and Farage respectively, to sort out internal party disagreements.
Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,011 aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 1-3 February 2014.
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