New Ipsos MORI Poll – Labour Lead Cut to 3%
There is a new Ipsos MORI poll reported today for the London Evening Standard showing the Conservatives closing the gap with Labour:
Conservative 32% (up 1%)
Labour 35% (down 3%)
Lib Dem 13% (up 1%)
UKIP 11% (up 1%)
MORI does have a reputation as being somewhat erratic month on month but this poll is consistent with other recent polls in showing a Labour lead of around 3%. It is also interesting in that again MORI shows UKIP back in fourth place behind the Lib Dems. I had expected that UKIP would be at about 20% in the polls in the run up to the Euro elections.
In further findings:
This month’s Ipsos MORI poll shows the Conservatives continuing to lead Labour on managing the economy, although they are neck-and-neck with regard to taxation policy and Labour lead on unemployment policy. One in three (35%) think the Conservatives have the best policies on managing the economy, compared with 22% for Labour; Labour lead the Conservatives on unemployment by 32% to 27%, and the two are almost level on taxation with Labour supported by 27% and the Conservatives on 25%.
The public still think George Osborne would make a more capable Chancellor than Ed Balls, although the gap between them has narrowed since we last asked this question in December 2013. Mr Osborne now has a five percentage point lead over Mr Balls, backed by 38% to Mr Balls’ 33%. This is down from an eleven point advantage for Mr Osborne in December.
Britons are split as to whether the government has done a good job on managing the economy, however – despite the Conservative lead in this area. Just under half each say the government has done a good job (47%) and a bad job (46%) at managing the economy. The public are similarly split regarding the government’s performance on keeping unemployment down (44% think it has done a bad good job, 48% a bad job). More than half (56%) think the government has done a bad job on handling taxation and public expenditure, however, with 35% saying they’ve done a good job.
However, this does represent a significant improvement for the government’s ratings since October 2011. The proportion thinking they have done a good job managing the economy has increased from 36% to 47%, and those thinking they have done a good job keeping unemployment down have increased from 15% to 44% (ratings on taxation and public expenditure have only increased slightly from 32% to 35%). All, though, are still below the heights Labour achieved when it was in power.
Economic optimism remains high. Nearly half (48%) think the general economic condition of the country will improve over the next 12 months, while 25% think it will get worse, and 24% stay the same. This gives an Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index (% get better minus % get worse) of +23.
Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,011 aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 8-12 March 2014.