Richard Willis's Blog

First for local news and first for comment

New Ipsos MORI Poll – Labour Lead Cut to 3%

There is a new Ipsos MORI poll reported today for the London Evening Standard showing the Conservatives closing the gap with Labour:

      Conservative               32% (up 1%)

                                                        Labour                         35% (down 3%)

                                                        Lib Dem                        13% (up 1%)

                                                        UKIP                             11% (up 1%)

MORI does have a reputation as being somewhat erratic month on month but this poll is consistent with other recent polls in showing a Labour lead of around 3%. It is also interesting in that again MORI shows UKIP back in fourth place behind the Lib Dems. I had expected that UKIP would be at about 20% in the polls in the run up to the Euro elections.

In further findings:

This month’s Ipsos MORI poll shows the Conservatives continuing to lead Labour on managing the economy, although they are neck-and-neck with regard to taxation policy and Labour lead on unemployment policy. One in three (35%) think the Conservatives have the best policies on managing the economy, compared with 22% for Labour; Labour lead the Conservatives on unemployment by 32% to 27%, and the two are almost level on taxation with Labour supported by 27% and the Conservatives on 25%.

The public still think George Osborne would make a more capable Chancellor than Ed Balls, although the gap between them has narrowed since we last asked this question in December 2013. Mr Osborne now has a five percentage point lead over Mr Balls, backed by 38% to Mr Balls’ 33%. This is down from an eleven point advantage for Mr Osborne in December.

Britons are split as to whether the government has done a good job on managing the economy, however – despite the Conservative lead in this area. Just under half each say the government has done a good job (47%) and a bad job (46%) at managing the economy. The public are similarly split regarding the government’s performance on keeping unemployment down (44% think it has done a bad good job, 48% a bad job). More than half (56%) think the government has done a bad job on handling taxation and public expenditure, however, with 35% saying they’ve done a good job.

However, this does represent a significant improvement for the government’s ratings since October 2011.  The proportion thinking they have done a good job managing the economy has increased from 36% to 47%, and those thinking they have done a good job keeping unemployment down have increased from 15% to 44% (ratings on taxation and public expenditure have only increased slightly from 32% to 35%).  All, though, are still below the heights Labour achieved when it was in power.

Economic optimism remains high.  Nearly half (48%) think the general economic condition of the country will improve over the next 12 months, while 25% think it will get worse, and 24% stay the same.  This gives an Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index (% get better minus % get worse) of +23.

Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,011 aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 8-12 March 2014.



March 13, 2014 - Posted by | Polls |


  1. Really interesting, because before each by election for an MP UKIP are down at about 13% then surge to 20%. These surveys don’t ask the right questions to the right people.

    Comment by Independent Anston | March 14, 2014 | Reply

  2. And in today’s YouGov poll labours lead is back up to 5 points.

    Comment by Phil the Greek | March 14, 2014 | Reply

    • And in today’s Populus Poll it is down to a mere 1% 🙂

      Comment by Richard Willis | March 14, 2014 | Reply

  3. Tony Benn RIP

    Comment by Phil the Greek | March 14, 2014 | Reply

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: