There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow which the Conservatives taking a 1% lead over Labour following last month’s 1% Labour lead:
Conservative 34% (up 3%)
Labour 33% (up 1%)
Lib Dem 12% (up 2%)
UKIP 9% (down 7%)
This is a huge drop in UKIP support taking them down into single figures. However, the net effect of the changes this month is a small Conservative lead which will cheer David Cameron as he embarks on his reshuffle.
The over-65s are much more likely to support the Conservatives than other age groups, with 52% backing the party compared with less than 30% across most of the rest of the age groups. There is also a strong regional variation in Conservative support with 21% in Scotland (up on previous elections), 18% in Wales and 21% in the north of England. In the crucial marginal-rich area of the Midlands the Conservatives are on a healthy 46%.
ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 11-13 July 2014. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.