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New YouGov Poll – Conservatives Just 1% Behind Labour

There is a new YouGov poll in today’s Sunday Times newspaper showing the Conservatives just 1% behind Labour:

                   Conservative                35% (no change)

                   Labour                          36% (down 2%)

                                                     Lib Dem                          8% (no change)

                                                     UKIP                             13% (up 2%).

Labour is failing to regain the leads it enjoyed about a year ago when it was regularly 5-8% ahead of the Conservatives. UKIP’s rating is up in this poll but it has generally been sliding since the Euro election results.

The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll published on 24 July.

 

July 27, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | 1 Comment

New Populus Poll – Labour’s Lead Cut to 2%

There is a new Populus online poll out today which shows Labour’s lead over the Conservatives cut to just 2%:

      Conservative              35% (up 3%)

      Labour                         37% (no change)

                                                           Lib Dem                         9% (no change)

                                                           UKIP                               9% (down 4%)

The UKIP rating has been sliding since the Euro elections and this poll suggests that some of the UKIP vote is returning to the Conservatives!

Populus interviewed a random sample of 2,070 adults online between 23rd-24th July 2014. Interviews were conducted across Great Britain and the results have been weighted to be representative of all British adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

July 25, 2014 Posted by | Polls | Leave a comment

New ICM Poll – Conservatives Move 1% Ahead as UKIP Plunges

ICM logo2There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow which the Conservatives taking a 1% lead over Labour following last month’s 1% Labour lead:

         Conservative              34% (up 3%)

         Labour                        33% (up 1%)

                                                        Lib Dem                      12% (up 2%)

                                                        UKIP                              9% (down 7%)

This is a huge drop in UKIP support taking them down into single figures. However, the net effect of the changes this month is a small Conservative lead which will cheer David Cameron as he embarks on his reshuffle.

The over-65s are much more likely to support the Conservatives than other age groups, with 52% backing the party compared with less than 30% across most of the rest of the age groups. There is also a strong regional variation in Conservative support with 21% in Scotland (up on previous elections), 18% in Wales and 21% in the north of England. In the crucial marginal-rich area of the Midlands the Conservatives are on a healthy 46%.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 11-13 July 2014. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.

ICM Poll - Jul 14

 

July 14, 2014 Posted by | Polls | Leave a comment

New ICM Poll – Labour Just 1% Ahead

ICM logo2There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow which has Labour recovering to be just 1% ahead of the Conservatives following last month’s plunge in Labour support:

         Conservative              31% (down 2%)

         Labour                        32% (up 1%)

                                                        Lib Dem                      10% (down 3%)

                                                        UKIP                            16% (up 1%)

So Labour has recovered to a slim lead after a 2% Conservative lead last month but the Lib Dems have slipped to their worst rating with ICM since they switched to telephone polling in the 1990s.

ICM also asked leader approval ratings, finding drops for all three leaders. David Cameron’s net rating fell back to be just into negative territory at -5, after +2 last month. However, Cameron is well ahead of Nick Clegg whose rating plunges from -21 to -37, and Ed Miliband also plunges new depths of unpopularity down from -25 to -39. George Osborne’s approval rating is now +6, ahead of all the others.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 13-16 June 2014. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.

State of the parties, 17 June 2014.

 

June 17, 2014 Posted by | Polls | Leave a comment

New Populus Poll – Conservatives 1% Ahead!

There is a new Populus online poll out today which shows the Conservatives taking a 1% lead over Labour:

      Conservative              35% (up 3%)

      Labour                         34% (down 2%)

                                                           Lib Dem                         8% (down 2%)

                                                           UKIP                             14% (up 1%)

This is the first time that Populus have had the Conservatives ahead this year and the first online poll to have them ahead since March 2012!

Interestingly the second Ashcroft poll out this afternoon has figures of Lab 35%, Cons 29%, UKIP 14%, LD 9%, a complete reversal of last week’s 2% Conservative lead. With YouGov continuing to show small Labour lead’s it suggests that the real picture is roughly neck and neck with variations due to normal sampling and margins of error.

Populus interviewed a random sample of 2,026 adults online between 16h-18th May 2014. Interviews were conducted across Great Britain and the results have been weighted to be representative of all British adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

May 19, 2014 Posted by | Polls | Leave a comment

New YouGov Poll – Conservatives and Labour Level Pegging

There is a new YouGov poll in tomorrow’s Sun newspaper showing the Conservatives and Labour level pegging:

                   Conservative                34% (no change)

                   Labour                          34% (down 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                          8% (no change)

                                                     UKIP                             15% (up 2%).

Labour has now been behind or level pegging in THREE polls from different companies in the last 48 hours. I hear that a sense of panic is now gripping the Parliamentary Labour Party as the realisation begins to dawn that the 2015 General Election is no longer the near certainty that many of them had thought it was! It will be fascinating to see what impact the current polling position has on the local elections here in Reading.

The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll I reported on 8 May.

 

May 13, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | Leave a comment

New ICM Poll – Conservatives Take a 2% Lead as Labour Support Collapses!

There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow which has the Conservatives 2% ahead of Labour following a plunge in Labour support:

         Conservative              33% (up 1%)

                                                    Labour                        31% (down 6%)

                                                    Lib Dem                      13% (up 1%)

                                                    UKIP                            15% (up 4%)

It seems that there has been a significant shift from Labour to UKIP in this poll. ICM is not a pollster who usually shows big month on month changes (unlike say MORI).

ICM also has a European Election poll which has Conservatives in the lead and Labour in third place. It has Conservatives on 27% (+2%), UKIP 26% (+6%), Labour 24% (-12%), LD 7% (+1%), Green 10% (+4%).

These findings will be a huge boost to the Conservatives and UKIP just 9 days before the local and Euro elections. It is likely to cause a tremor throughout the Labour party and could lead to internal discontent becoming more vocal.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 9-11 May 2014. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.

ICM Poll - May 14

 

May 12, 2014 Posted by | Polls | Leave a comment

New YouGov Poll – Labour is Now Barely Ahead!

There is a new YouGov poll in tomorrow’s Sun newspaper showing Labour’s lead close to vanishing again at a mere 1%:

                   Conservative                34% (up 1%)

                   Labour                          35% (down 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                          8% (down 2%)

                                                     UKIP                             13% (down 1%).

Labour leads now seem to have fallen to the 1-3% range with Labour firmly in the mid-30’s. As Mike Smithson from Political Betting has noted “Labour’s current poll position is the worst for the party since early 2012”. Whatever the results in the Euro elections, Labour is not well placed to win the 2015 General Election!

The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll I reported on 1 May.

 

May 8, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | Leave a comment

New Populus Poll – Labour’s Lead Just 1%!

There is a new Populus online poll out today which shows Labour’s lead over the Conservatives at just 1%:

      Conservative              34% (up 2%)

      Labour                         35% (no change)

                                                           Lib Dem                         9% (down 1%)

                                                           UKIP                             13% (no change)

The Labour party has now sunk to a consistent rating of the mid-30’s, its worst polling level since Ed Miliband became Labour leader. It is also notable how Labour’s lead has not been above 6% for some weeks now. The game is really now on for next year’s General Election!

Populus interviewed a random sample of 2,060 adults online between 30th-1st May 2014. Interviews were conducted across Great Britain and the results have been weighted to be representative of all British adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

May 2, 2014 Posted by | Polls | 2 Comments

New YouGov Poll – Labour Lead is 3%

There is a new YouGov poll in tomorrow’s Sun newspaper showing Labour’s lead at 3%:

                   Conservative                33% (down 3%)

                   Labour                          36% (down 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                       10% (up 1%)

                                                     UKIP                             14% (up 3%).

Labour is now getting leads of a maximum of 6% with most polls in the 2-4% range. It is also noticeable that Labour’s vote share is now usually 35-37%. Once the Euro elections have passed and the focus shifts away from UKIP I expect the Conservatives to move ahead of Labour.

The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll I reported on 23 March.

May 1, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | Leave a comment

New Opinium Poll – Labour Lead Falls to 2%

 There is a new Opinium poll in todays Observer newspaper showing Labour lead dropping to just 2%:

            Conservative            32% (up 2%)

                                                           Labour                      34% (down 2%)

                                                           Lib Dem                      7% (no change)

                                                           UKIP                         18% (no change)

This poll is broadly the same as the Populus poll which had both the Conservatives and Labour on 35%.

David Cameron’s personal rating has improved slightly from -11% to -8% while Ed Miliband’s has fallen from -20% to -22%. 38% approved of Cameron’s performance against 46% who disapproved, while 24% approved of Miliband’s performance against 46% who disapproved. Nick Clegg’s net rating is -42%. 16% said they approved of his performance and 58% said they disapproved.

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,965 GB adults aged 18+ from 22 to 25 April 2014. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria.

Opinium Parties - Apr 14

April 27, 2014 Posted by | Polls | Leave a comment

New Populus Poll – Labour’s Lead Has Gone!

There is a new Populus online poll out today which shows Labour’s lead over the Conservatives gone:

      Conservative              35% (up 2%)

      Labour                         35% (down 1%)

                                                           Lib Dem                         9% (down 1%)

                                                           UKIP                             13% (no change)

This poll comes on the same day as YouGov has Labour 6% ahead so it will be interesting to see what the weekend polls show. We are now in a position, one year from a General Election, where Labour’s poll lead varies from Zero to 6%. More worrying for Labour is the gradual decline in their vote share over the last few months.

Populus interviewed a random sample of 2,055 adults online between 23rd-24th April 2014. Interviews were conducted across Great Britain and the results have been weighted to be representative of all British adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

April 25, 2014 Posted by | Polls | Leave a comment

New Populus Poll – Labour’s Lead at 2%

There is a new Populus online poll out today which shows Labour’s lead over the Conservatives at just 2%:

      Conservative              33% (down 1%)

      Labour                         35% (no change)

                                                           Lib Dem                       11% (no change)

                                                           UKIP                             13% (up 1%)

This poll suggests that Labour is barely maintaining a lead over the Conservatives despite all the bad news for the Government over Maria Miller’s expenses. This week will see more economic good news and it will be interesting to see how the polls look over the Easter weekend.

Populus interviewed a random sample of 2,011 adults online between 11th-13th April 2014. Interviews were conducted across Great Britain and the results have been weighted to be representative of all British adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

April 14, 2014 Posted by | Polls | Leave a comment

New ICM Poll – Labour’s Lead up to 5%

There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow showing Labour’s lead in Westminster voting intentions edging up to 5% while the Lib Dems remain ahead of UKIP for the second month in a row:

         Conservative              32% (down 3%)

                                                    Labour                        37% (down 1%)

                                                    Lib Dem                      12% (no change)

                                                    UKIP                             11% (up 2%)

Despite all the coverage of Maria Miller’s expenses and her consequent resignation Labour can still only manage a 5% lead in the most reliable pollster’s findings.

ICM also has a European Election poll which has UKIP in third place. It finds Labour ahead with 36% (+1%), Cons 25% (NC), UKIP 20% (NC), LD 6% (-3%), Green 6% (-1%).

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,000 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 11-13 April 2014. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.

ICM_Poll_Apr 14

 

April 14, 2014 Posted by | Polls | Leave a comment

New Populus Poll – Labour’s Lead Cut to 1%

There is a new Populus online poll out today which shows Labour’s lead over the Conservatives down to just 1%:

      Conservative              34% (no change)

      Labour                         35% (down 2%)

                                                           Lib Dem                       11% (up 2%)

                                                           UKIP                             12% (down 2%)

This poll suggests that the narrowing we saw following the Budget was no short-lived bounce. The biggest lead Labour has managed in the last week has been 6% and we have the monthly ICM poll to come in the next few days.

Populus interviewed a random sample of 2,051 adults online between 9th-10th April 2014. Interviews were conducted across Great Britain and the results have been weighted to be representative of all British adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

April 11, 2014 Posted by | Polls | Leave a comment