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New YouGov Poll – Conservatives Just 1% Behind Labour

There is a new YouGov poll in today’s Sunday Times newspaper showing the Conservatives just 1% behind Labour:

                   Conservative                35% (no change)

                   Labour                          36% (down 2%)

                                                     Lib Dem                          8% (no change)

                                                     UKIP                             13% (up 2%).

Labour is failing to regain the leads it enjoyed about a year ago when it was regularly 5-8% ahead of the Conservatives. UKIP’s rating is up in this poll but it has generally been sliding since the Euro election results.

The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll published on 24 July.

 

July 27, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | 1 Comment

New YouGov Poll – Conservatives and Labour Level Pegging

There is a new YouGov poll in tomorrow’s Sun newspaper showing the Conservatives and Labour level pegging:

                   Conservative                34% (no change)

                   Labour                          34% (down 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                          8% (no change)

                                                     UKIP                             15% (up 2%).

Labour has now been behind or level pegging in THREE polls from different companies in the last 48 hours. I hear that a sense of panic is now gripping the Parliamentary Labour Party as the realisation begins to dawn that the 2015 General Election is no longer the near certainty that many of them had thought it was! It will be fascinating to see what impact the current polling position has on the local elections here in Reading.

The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll I reported on 8 May.

 

May 13, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | Leave a comment

New YouGov Poll – Labour is Now Barely Ahead!

There is a new YouGov poll in tomorrow’s Sun newspaper showing Labour’s lead close to vanishing again at a mere 1%:

                   Conservative                34% (up 1%)

                   Labour                          35% (down 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                          8% (down 2%)

                                                     UKIP                             13% (down 1%).

Labour leads now seem to have fallen to the 1-3% range with Labour firmly in the mid-30’s. As Mike Smithson from Political Betting has noted “Labour’s current poll position is the worst for the party since early 2012”. Whatever the results in the Euro elections, Labour is not well placed to win the 2015 General Election!

The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll I reported on 1 May.

 

May 8, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | Leave a comment

New YouGov Poll – Labour Lead is 3%

There is a new YouGov poll in tomorrow’s Sun newspaper showing Labour’s lead at 3%:

                   Conservative                33% (down 3%)

                   Labour                          36% (down 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                       10% (up 1%)

                                                     UKIP                             14% (up 3%).

Labour is now getting leads of a maximum of 6% with most polls in the 2-4% range. It is also noticeable that Labour’s vote share is now usually 35-37%. Once the Euro elections have passed and the focus shifts away from UKIP I expect the Conservatives to move ahead of Labour.

The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll I reported on 23 March.

May 1, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | Leave a comment

New YouGov Poll – Labour Lead is Vanishing!

There is a new YouGov poll in today’s Sunday Times showing Labour’s lead almost vanishing. Post Budget it is now just 1%:

                   Conservative                36% (up 1%)

                   Labour                          37% (no change)

                                                     Lib Dem                         9% (no change)

                                                     UKIP                             11% (down 1%)

This poll is almost identical to the Mail on Sunday Survation poll which has the Conservatives on 35% and Labour on 36%.

33% now approve of the Government’s record with 52% disapproving, giving a net -19%. The best rating for some time.

On the leaders ratings David Cameron is on -9% (up from -14% a week ago), Ed Miliband on -31% (up from -32%), and Nick Clegg on -44% (up from -53%). Chancellor George Osborne has seen his rating improve to -6% from -33% since April 2013.

The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll I reported on 12 March.

March 23, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | Leave a comment

New YouGov Poll – Labour Lead Now Just 2%

There is a new YouGov poll in tomorrow’s Sun newspaper showing Labour’s lead falling to just 2%:

                   Conservative                35% (up 1%)

                   Labour                          37% (no change)

                                                     Lib Dem                         9% (down 1%)

                                                     UKIP                             12% (up 2%)

The Labour and Conservative shares are almost identical to that found by today’s ICM poll in the Guardian. The difference, of course is in the findings and relative positions of UKIP and the Lib Dems. We have now seen several polls with the Conservatives around 34-35% and Labour well under 40%.

I remind readers that most followers of UK political polling consider ICM and YouGov to be the best in the business. Although it is notable that YouGov has been more erratic than usual over the last month.

The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll I reported on 5 March.

March 12, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | Leave a comment

New ICM Poll – Tories Rise to 35%

There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian today showing Labour’s lead falling to 3% while the Lib Dems have overtaken UKIP for the first time in a while:

         Conservative              35% (up 1%)

                                                    Labour                        38% (no change)

                                                    Lib Dem                      12% (up 2%)

                                                    UKIP                              9% (down 2%)

It is only the third time since George Osborne’s “omnishambles” 2012 budget that the Conservatives have hit 35% or more in the monthly series of polls.

ICM asked who or what was “most to blame for Britain’s recent economic difficulties and the ongoing cutbacks in government spending”, and found that twice as many voters (32%) blamed “debts racked up by the last Labour government” as the “coalition’s economic management” (16%).

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,003 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 7-11 March 2014. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.

ICMPoll-Mar 14

 

March 12, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | Leave a comment

New YouGov Poll – Labour Lead Cut to 3%

There is a new YouGov poll in tomorrow’s Sun newspaper showing Labour’s lead cut to 3%:

                   Conservative                34% (no change)

                   Labour                          37% (down 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                        10% (up 1%)

                                                     UKIP                             11% (down 1%)

Among men, the Conservatives and Labour are both on 35%. Among women, Labour leads by 39% to 33%.

For those readers who doubt Labour’s downward trajectory I suggest you read this.

The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll I reported on 2 March.

March 5, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | Leave a comment

New YouGov Poll – Labour Lead Still at 4%

There is a new YouGov poll in today’s Sunday Times showing Labour’s lead unchanged at 4%:

                   Conservative                34% (down 1%)

                   Labour                          38% (down 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                          9% (down 1%)

                                                     UKIP                             12% (up 2%)

For those readers who doubt Labour’s downward trajectory I suggest you read this.

The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll I reported on 9 February.

March 2, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | Leave a comment

New ICM Poll – UKIP in Third Place for Euro Vote

There is a new ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow showing Labour just 4% ahead in Westminster voting intentions:

         Conservative              34% (up 2%)

                                                    Labour                        38% (up 3%)

                                                    Lib Dem                      10% (down 4%)

                                                    UKIP                            11% (up 1%)

This ICM poll is almost identical to Sunday’s YouGov poll in the Sunday Times. We therefore have the two most reliable pollsters in virtually complete agreement! Whilst Labour will be pleased to be up 3% this month it still leaves them just 4% ahead of the Conservatives who are up 2%.

The poll findings also include a survey of voting intention for the European Parliament elections in May. Surprisingly this shows UKIP in third place behind the Conservatives and Labour. The poll finds that Labour leads with 35%, the Conservatives are on 25%, UKIP on 20%, the Lib Dems on 9% and the Greens on 7%. Many commentators had suggested that UKIP could end up topping the Euro ballot.

Readers are reminded that ICM is considered the “gold standard” amongst pollsters and I have therefore always given a lot more weight to their findings alongside YouGov.

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,002 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 7-9 Febrary 2014. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.

ICM Feb 14

 

February 10, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | Leave a comment

New YouGov Poll – Labour Lead at 4%

There is a new YouGov poll in today’s Sunday Times showing Labour’s lead at 4%:

                   Conservative                35% (no change)

                   Labour                          39% (up 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                        10% (no change)

                                                     UKIP                             10% (down 1%)

The details of the poll contain several interesting nuggets. The Conservatives lead Labour by 3% amongst men (37-34) but are 10% behind among women (33-43). The Conservatives also lead Labour by 3% (38-35) in the crucial swing Midlands/Wales region. There is no doubt that the Labour lead is narrowing, a point emphasised by the change of Populus methodology which has seen Labour’s lead drop from the recent 7-10% level to around 3%.

For those readers who doubt Labour’s downward trajectory I suggest you read this.

The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll I reported on 29 January.

February 9, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | Leave a comment

New YouGov Poll – Labour Lead at Just 3% Again

There is a new YouGov poll in tomorrow’s Sun newspaper showing Labour’s lead at 3%:

                   Conservative                35% (no change)

                   Labour                          38% (up 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                        10% (up 1%)

                                                     UKIP                             11% (down 2%)

The changes above are within the margins of error but this is the third YouGov poll in a row with Labour’s lead at 3% or less. Sometimes we can see outliers with a particularly high or low lead but three in a row is about as consistent as you can get. Of course we will see some fluctuation in the days and weeks ahead but there is little doubt now that Labour’s lead over the Conservatives is greatly reduced. It is only a matter of time before we see the first poll showing the Conservatives ahead!

For those readers who doubt Labour’s downward trajectory I suggest you read this.

The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll I reported on 27 January.

January 29, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | 2 Comments

New YouGov Poll – Labour Lead Fades to 2%

There is a new YouGov poll in tomorrow’s Sun newspaper showing Labour’s now down to 2%:

                   Conservative                35% (no change)

                   Labour                          37% (down 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                          9% (up 1%)

                                                     UKIP                             13% (up 1%)

YouGov polls continue to jump around with Sunday’s YouGov poll showing a Labour lead of 7%. However, the 2% lead in tomorrow’s poll is the equal lowest Labour lead for many months in this series.

The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll I reported on 24 January.

January 27, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | Leave a comment

New YouGov Poll – Labour Lead Just 3%!

There is a new YouGov poll in today’s Sun newspaper showing Labour’s lead at 3%:

                   Conservative                35% (up 1%)

                   Labour                          38% (up 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                          8% (down 1%)

                                                     UKIP                             12% (down 1%)

YouGov polls have been jumping around this week with Labour’s lead varying between 4 and 8% until today’s 3% lead.

The poll above is compared with the YouGov poll I reported on 14 January.

January 24, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | 4 Comments

New YouGov Poll – Another Poll Has Labour Just 3% Ahead!

There is a new YouGov poll in tomorrow’s Sun newspaper showing Labour’s lead down to just 3%:

                   Conservative                34% (up 1%)

                   Labour                          37% (down 1%)

                                                     Lib Dem                          9% (down 2%)

                                                     UKIP                             13% (up 1%)

This poll is very much in line with today’s ICM poll in the Guardian which also had Labour just 3% ahead, and is very bad news for Ed Miliband.

The poll above is compared with today’s YouGov poll in the Sun.

January 14, 2014 Posted by | Polls | , | Leave a comment